Traded alongside SS Jean Segura and RP prospect Zac Curtis to the Mariners over the offseason, Mitch Haniger wasn’t a particularly well-known player until the trade placed his name in national headlines. However, if you followed baseball at the Triple-A level in 2016, Haniger was already a noteworthy player. At the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, Haniger slashed .341/.428/.670 with 20 HRs and eight SBs in 74 games. The PCL is a hitter-friendly league, but his 185 wRC+ was nearly 20 points higher than any other Triple-A player with at least 300 PAs. Haniger struck out a manageable 19.9% of the time with a 12.5% walk rate.
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When called up to the majors for 34 games at the end of the season, Haniger hit five HRs, but batted just .229. A .256 BABIP indicates some bad luck may have been the culprit, particularly with Haniger’s batted ball profile. His 37.3% hard contact percentage ranked 69 of 418 among players with at least 120 PAs. Even more impressively, his average exit velocity was 21st overall minimum 70 batted ball events. With a mediocre 5.6% Brls/BBE, a lot of that hard contact was wasted on sub-optimal launch angles, though it was a small sample size and he consistently drove the ball hard. The 22.0% strikeout rate was palatable, especially since Haniger walked 9.8% of the time.
Leaving the crowded Arizona outfield for Seattle allows Haniger a clear path to playing time. Safeco Field also isn’t the pitcher haven it used to be – it has a 96 park factor for right-handed HR, which is just slightly below average. 20+ HRs should be reasonably attainable with a full season of playing time. He’s also stolen 12 bases in each of the past two minor league seasons, so double-digit SBs is certainly possible. Only 23 players hit 20 HRs with 10 SBs last season, so reaching that plateau alone would make Haniger an interesting player. He might do so with a suspect batting average (Steamer projects .249 and ZiPS .237) , but there’s room for growth there too if he can keep the strikeout rate around 20%.
In 68 Spring Training at-bats, Haniger is batting .412 with two HRs and three SBs. Spring Training stats don’t mean a whole lot, but it’s encouraging that Seattle has been giving him the green light to steal bases. The Mariners have stolen 36 bases in 32 games this spring, second in the league. GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais have said they want to be aggressive on the base paths this year, so Haniger could even see an increased benefit in the stolen base department from his minor league years.
Haniger is one of few late-round picks who has potential to contribute in all five standard roto categories. Batting average will be a stretch, but he has increased value in OBP leagues. He’s become a popular sleeper pick, but his ADP is still around the likes of Nick Markakis, Alex Gordon, and Cameron Maybin – all of whom carry far less upside. With talent and opportunity, Haniger makes for a late-round investment that could pay huge returns.
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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.
