Towards the end of every season, across most keeper/dynasty formats, managers are dropping dead weight and trying to find that next guy who might ascend to greatness at little to no cost the following season. January and February roll along and you’re assessing your roster and the keeper value of your players. Sometimes you have this lowly No. 2 WR on Pittsburgh named Emmanuel Sanders and he signs with a Peyton Manning-led Denver team. Other times you have DeMarco Murray sign with Philadelphia.
It is no secret that a player’s movement in the offseason can have a huge impact on his value. However, of equal importance, could be the arrival or departure of other players affecting players already on their respective teams. We’re going to take a look at a few players that could see a value change based upon free agent signings/future activity to help give you an idea of which direction their trade value is poised to go.
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It’s only March and rankings will change considerably over the next few months, but Charles Sims is currently ranked as the RB46. I think that is entirely too low in general, but this is a guy that could see his value catapult into the top 30 as soon as sometime during the next few weeks. Sims is coming off a weak season, but one that can be mostly attributed to missing eight games due to injury. When active, Sims was mostly the change of pace back to Doug Martin…except when he wasn’t. In Week 3 and 4, Sims operated as the feature back with Martin injured. Since Week 4 was against Denver, I want to focus on Week 3. I am aware that I am cherry picking stats here, but we’re talking about a guy who is currently dirt cheap that only had one opportunity to show what he can do with a featured workload against not the best defense in the NFL. In Week 3 against the Rams, Sims rushed for 55 yards on 13 carries and caught six of eight targets for 69 yards. It’s a small sample size, but one that shows he is capable of producing with increasing opportunity. Martin has fallen out of favor with management, is coming off a career-worst season, is suspended for the first three games of 2017, and may not even be on the team come April. If Martin is gone, Sims enters the season atop the depth chart. He is a guy that can be had as a throw-in in a larger deal or for next to nothing in terms of draft picks. I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire Sims, but I would take advantage if the opportunity presented itself.
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders (WR – DEN)
You know where I’m going with this. It’s the simplest of the offseason conundrums. Will Tony Romo (who I believe will be released in the coming weeks) sign with Denver? We keep hearing reports of Denver being happy with the quarterbacks they have and how they won’t trade for Romo. But nowhere have we heard anyone, specifically John Elway, definitively say no. I think Romo ends up in Denver. Simply put, Thomas and Sanders finished as the PPR WRs 13 and 15 last season with the calamity that was Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch under center. We’ve already seen what these two can do with Peyton Manning. I’m not saying Romo is as good as Manning, but he’s a high level QB and a massive upgrade on what they have now. Thomas and Sanders have proven they are good enough to thrive even under the least ideal of conditions. With Romo in town, Thomas could reclaim his top five status and Sanders could return to being a WR1. A move to acquire either of these two comes with risk because everyone is well aware of what a Romo signing would mean. The price may not be as deflated as you would like, but the opportunity for a significant return is there. Neither Thomas nor Sanders’ value is currently “low,” but I do believe their values are as low as they are going to be right now.
DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard (RB – OAK)
Neither of these guys is ranked particularly high, but this is a situation that tends to arise almost every season – the starting running back departs and the backups are immediately anointed as saviors to the position. Washington is currently the RB61 and Richard is the RB47. The inclusion of them is to caution against expecting any sort of spike in value once Latavius Murray is officially a free agent. The Raiders are not going to bring back Murray for reasons I will never fully understand. You will be hard pressed to find more than a handful of teams with a larger gap between their No. 1 and No. 2 running backs than Murray and whichever of the other two you want to put officially behind him. But the Raiders had no interest in treating Murray like the true three-down back that he is and quite frankly, I don’t think he has much interest in returning to Oakland. With Murray gone, Washington and Richard would compete for the starting role (which ultimately would likely be a timeshare anyway). Do not bother with either of these guys. Aside from the fact that neither looked particularly impressive on a consistent basis in 2016, the Raiders are likely going to bring in a veteran back via free agency. It would not shock me if either Adrian Peterson or Jamaal Charles ended up there. If not, perhaps Oakland could be the landing spot for Doug Martin. Any way you slice it, I don’t envision the Raiders entering August with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard as their top two backs. If you own one of these guys, as soon as Murray is officially gone, try and leverage that into sapping some value out of a trade, if possible.
On the list of things no one saw coming in 2016, the Packers No. 4 WR becoming a valuable fantasy running back has to be toward the top. Currently ranked the RB29, Montgomery is incredibly overvalued as I do not expect him to be atop the depth chart come August. Montgomery was useful in a bind created by injuries to Eddie Lacy and James Starks, but he was never as effective as the general public wanted him to be. He was not a priority catching passes out of the backfield, only hauling in exactly two or three receptions in every game after his back-to-back 10-catch explosions Week 6 and 7, except when he had a whopping four in Week 16. More importantly, his rushing numbers were dismal. That’s not to say he was bad at running the football – he undoubtedly improved as the season went on and he got acclimated to the position. The problem was his usage. He is not a traditional running back and Mike McCarthy refused to use him as one. The rationale (or lack thereof) behind that notwithstanding, McCarthy is still the coach of this team (sorry Packers fans, but he’s not going anywhere), and has shown time and time again a refusal to commit to Montgomery as a true feature back. Aside from his 162-yard outburst on 16 carries against Chicago in Week 15, Montgomery never saw double-digit carries. From Week 9 to Week 16, Montgomery’s highest non Week 15 rushing total was 53 yards. Included in that span are games of two, nine, 17, and 23 yards on the ground. He also was not the primary option at the goal line, scoring just three touchdowns all season, two of which came in the aforementioned Week 15 explosion. For context, in that Week 15 game, Montgomery amassed 20% of his season carry total, 35% of his season rushing total, and 67% of his season touchdown total. The Packers may still very well bring back Eddie Lacy on a one-year “prove it” deal (spoiler: he won’t). If not or perhaps in tandem with that decision, they will either sign a back or draft one. Montgomery is going to have competition from a player who has always been a running back on purpose. He is not a guy I would go chasing in offseason deals, but rather one I would look to unload, if possible, before the Packers make moves that will further decrease his value.
The rookie out of TCU played the first two weeks in 2016, caught exactly two passes, and then never saw the ball again. Between injuries and a crowded receiving corps, 2016 was essentially a redshirt season for the talented youngster. But things are about to open up for Doctson. The Redskins spent a first-round pick on Doctson and want to give him every opportunity to succeed. Pierre Garcon is as good as gone and while DeSean Jackson publicly claims he wants to return to Washington, I don’t buy that for a second. They are both leaving and that flanker WR position is Doctson’s for the taking. Jamison Crowder will never be an outside receiver. He will stay where he is. And while I do not anticipate the Redskins entering the season with Josh Doctson, Ryan Grant, and Jamison Crowder as their starting receivers, I also do not anticipate them signing more than one impact receiver. Doctson can be fully expected to beat out Grant for a starting spot alongside the potential free agent signee. Given that Docston is only in his second year, he will not be easy to pry away from owners. But this is a guy who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash at the combine last year and is considered to have excellent hands. The ceiling is quite high for Doctson and his value is only going to increase when the path to starting officially clears up.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
