Yesterday, we took a look at some position players who had ZEILE Consensus Projections that suggested they were being undervalued based on their ADP. Identifying those players is a key part of your draft strategy so that you can take advantage of the perception of a player not reflecting his reality.
But as I’ve learned the hard way throughout the years, you need to have some pretty decent pitching to win a fantasy championship. So today, we’ll do the same exercise with pitchers, and search through the projections to see who might be undervalued on Draft Day.
Sync your cheat sheet to your draft with our fantasy baseball software 
Dallas Keuchel (SP – HOU)
- Projections: 3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 14 wins, 176 Ks, 204 IP
- ADP: 126
I understand, Keuchel burned a lot of us last year. But he basically admitted that he had a shoulder injury in Spring Training that he pitched through pretty much all season long.
Keuchel had a good season and a Cy Young season in 2014 and 2015, and those projections are conservative compared to his performance those two years. And they look a whole lot like the projections for Jose Quintana (3.61, 1.23, 13 wins, 178 Ks) and Carlos Martinez (3.39, 1.26, 13 wins, 181 Ks). The difference is that Quintana and Martinez are being drafted at picks 100 and 74, respectively. Don’t forget about Keuchel on Draft Day.
James Paxton (SP – SEA)
- Projections: 3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10 wins, 153 Ks, 163 IP
- ADP: 160
I think Paxton’s projected numbers of 3.76, 1.22, 11 wins and 153 Ks seem great. What’s that you say? Those numbers that look eerily similar to Paxton’s belong to one Michael Fulmer, the guy being drafted 35 picks before Paxton? Hmm, how about that . . .
Here’s the thing with Paxton. Not only do his projections match or exceed several guys being drafted ahead of him (John Lackey, Marcus Stroman, etc.), but he certainly offers the potential to beat his projections. He’s just 28 years old, is on the rise, and had just a 2.80 FIP last season. If you trust the projections, and I do, then he’s being undervalued in drafts.
Rich Hill (SP – LAD)
- Projections: 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10 wins, 149 Ks, 134 IP
- ADP: 114
Sure, he’s not projected to throw that many innings, and yes, many of us have not forgotten that epic four-week blister problem last season. But still, look at his ratio stats. His ERA the last two seasons is 1.55 and 2.12! That’s crazy talk.
He’s the 30th pitcher being drafted, so he’s not exactly being forgotten. But should he really be taken behind Julio Teheran (3.83, 1.21, 11 wins, 172 Ks) or Masahiro Tanaka (3.65, 1.14, 12 wins, 166 Ks), who are being drafted at picks 104 and 88, respectively?
Guys like Hill are great in that they’ll never hurt you when they pitch, and they allow you to sub in a replacement player when they’re injured. Except for that blister thing. Ok, I’ll give you that. But still, his projections warrant a higher draft pick.
Tyler Skaggs (SP – LAA)
- Projections: 3.66 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, nine wins, 130 Ks, 138 IP
- ADP: 392
So, let’s be clear, I haven’t drafted Tyler Skaggs in any league this season. But I’ve been taking a closer look at his projections, and I’m not sure why he’s being ignored. There’s a reason his projections have him with those numbers – as a former first-round draft pick who is just reestablishing himself after Tommy John surgery, he’s got loads of talent, just waiting to be put together.
Remember, FantasyPros projections aren’t just some random projection system that you’re trusting with blind faith. It’s an average of several of the most reliable projection systems. So if you trust those projections, which you should, then should Skaggs be ignored in drafts when Julio Urias (3.47, 1.24, nine wins, 133 Ks) is being drafted at pick 159? That’s more than a 200 pick difference for slightly better numbers.
Skaggs doesn’t need to be one of your targets. But he illustrates exactly why this exercise is useful. Perception doesn’t match reality for him, and he’s someone to keep in mind in deeper formats.
Hitters Projected to Outperform ADP (Fantasy Baseball)
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
