We’ve now taken a look at hitters and pitchers projected to outperform their ADP, as well as hitters projected to underperform their ADP. Now, let’s close up shop with looking at pitchers projected to underperform their ADP.
If this is the first article of this series you’ve read, first, welcome! How are you? I feel like we never talk anymore. Second, what we’re doing here is comparing ADP to players’ ZEILE Consensus Projections, which is FantasyPros’ projection system that aggregates several reliable projections. Through this exercise, we’re able to see what players the market is overvaluing and undervaluing, and where we may be able to extract some hidden value.
So, I’d advise doing a quick read of the other articles in this series that have already been published, and then heading back over here. I’ll wait . . .
Ok, done? Great. Let’s get going. Here are some pitchers who are projected to underperform their ADP.
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- Projections: 3.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12 wins, 166 Ks, 189 IP
- ADP: 87
Tanaka is a fine pitcher, but his projections build in major regression, and with good reason. Although he had a 3.07 ERA last year, he had a 3.51 FIP. His K/9 rate has dipped from 9.3 to 8.1 to 7.4 the last three seasons. So his projections, while a step back from last year, seem fairly accurate.
And although those projections are fine, you can just as easily wait and get the identical Kenta Maeda (3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 12 wins, 164 Ks) 14 picks later, or Dallas Keuchel (3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 14 wins, 176 Ks) 41 picks later. A guy like Tanaka with major downside (considering his partially torn UCL) and mediocre projections seems primed to underperform his ADP.
- Projections: 3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11 wins, 152 Ks, 176 IP
- ADP: 125
On an episode of the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast last season, Bobby Sylvester said that Michael Fulmer broke the site’s projection system because his numbers were so unsupported by the underlying metrics. I’m a little worried he might crash our ADP system this year!
Just kidding (sort of). Fulmer is being drafted at pick 125 as the 31st starting pitcher off the board. So, he’s not being drafted like the ace he was for a lot of last season. But look at those projections, which simply account for a correction of his good fortune last season (he actually had a 3.76 FIP last season, too – way to go, projections!). And with that, should he really be drafted above John Lackey (3.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12 wins, 166 Ks) or Felix Hernandez (3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12 wins, 173 Ks), who are going at picks 135 and 141, respectively? Or what about Jeff Samardzija even, who has a projected stat line of a 3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12 wins and 168 Ks, but who can be drafted more than 50 picks later at pick 177?
Fulmer has a nice career ahead of him. But he’s projected to be a pretty mediocre fantasy option. You can get similar stats later.
- Projections: 3.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 11 wins, 147 Ks, 178 IP
- ADP: 134
Quick, without checking, what were Stroman’s numbers last year? Did you cheat? Ok, they were a 4.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, nine wins, and 166 Ks in 202 IP. Those are . . . sub-optimal.
I’m in line with a Stroman breakout one of these years. But the projection systems don’t see it this year and, frankly, I’m tired of wasting a pick that’s too high on him. What if I told you that you could have a guy with pretty much the same projections (3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 12 wins, 167 Ks) more than 100 picks later? Because those are Collin McHugh’s projected stats, and he’s going at pick 244.
If you’re convinced Stroman is going to break out, then sure, draft him where he’s going. But the projections say to pass, and draft any of the handful of guys with similar projections that are going later.
- Projections: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11 wins, 183 Ks, 177 IP
- ADP: 173
Let me state on the record that I like Gray a lot this year, especially with the talk of him expanding his arsenal. But he’s still a pitcher who calls Coors Field home, and that’s necessarily going to limit his upside.
Gray is projected to actively hurt you in ERA and WHIP, and, at best, draw even in wins. His stats can easily be taken at pick 249 with Gio Gonzalez (3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 11 wins, 161 Ks) or at pick 251 with Ian Kennedy (4.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10 wins, 173 Ks). A breakout may be coming, of course. But so may a similar stat line to Ervin Santana and Jeremy Hellickson, especially if the projection systems, which know a lot more than we do, are accurate!
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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
