To quote the great Benjamin Franklin, In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and a Giancarlo Stanton trip to the disabled list.
Scholars are still debating over the last part, but it’s a sentiment that rings true for so many fantasy owners. Injuries can cripple competitive teams and drive owners to swear off players for good.
The drop in production is frustrating as Stanton wastes away on the DL, but savvy owners recognize a decline in production doesn’t equal an absence of production. When Stanton hits the DL, the Marlins don’t take an automatic out in his lineup spot, and neither does your fantasy team.
Projection systems typically assume missed time for oft-injured players, but if you leave it at that, you’re stopping one step short of proper evaluation. Consequently, you may bypass a great Draft Day value. Proper assessment of Stanton and other injury-prone players requires consideration of replacement level production.
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Last year’s top 200 hitters, according to wOBA, averaged 148 games played. The list includes players who spent time on the DL, platoon players, and catchers who didn’t suit up every day. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume everyday players will start 150 games per season.
It’s safe to say the lineup card would bear Stanton’s name at least 150 times should he manage to avoid the disabled list. However, Steamer has understandably built in some caution due to his injury history and projects 119 games played in 2017.
Over those 119 games, Steamer projects a .268 average with 34 home runs, 74 runs, 88 RBIs and three stolen bases. His projection incorporates injury risk, yet he remains a fantasy asset as demonstrated by our consensus ADP. At 38th overall, Stanton is going one pick ahead of Nelson Cruz who Steamer projects for .264/33/79/96/2.
Similar expectations justify a similar ADP, right? Not exactly.
Cruz’s line assumes a full slate of plate appearances while Stanton’s projection builds in a couple of trips to the 15-day DL. If and when he does hit the DL, you aren’t going to let his lineup spot go to waste. You’re going to grab the next best option off the waiver wire and hope for a speedy recovery. Enter replacement level production.
Replacement level production will vary depending on the depth of your league. In 10-team leagues, you may have Carlos Beltran or Joc Pederson sitting on the wire, whereas an NL-only you may be plugging Jon Jay in for a couple of weeks. The point being, the expected level of replacement production isn’t universal.
For this example, let’s consider a 12-team mixed league with five starting outfielders. Assuming another 24 OF slot into the Utility spot or bench role, we can expect the top 84 OFs to be rostered. Therefore, when Stanton gets hurt, the next man up is the 85th best outfielder. According to consensus ADP, your replacement player options in the 85-90 range include names like Josh Reddick, Kevin Pillar, and Corey Dickerson. We’ll use Reddick for this example.
If Steamer pegs its projection and Stanton is limited to 119 games, that requires 31 games of Josh Reddick in his absence. Reddick may not turn many heads, but remember, a drop in production is not an absence of production. Reddick’s projections prorated to 31 games will yield a .267/5/15/17/2 line. That means Stanton’s spot in your fantasy lineup isn’t producing the .268/34/75/89/3 that Steamer projects. Accounting for Reddick’s replacement level production, you’re getting .268/39/90/106/5.
It’s critical to mention the importance of projecting equitably. Projection systems are conservative by nature which explains why Steamer doesn’t tab a single player for 150 games. It would be unwise to supplement Stanton’s production up to 150 games with the rest of the player universe projected for around 140 games. With that in mind, if you’re going to account for replacement level production for one player, you should do it for every player. Failure to do so would over correct for the problem you’re trying to solve. In this example, Cruz’ 141 games supplemented by nine games of Josh Reddick equates to .264/34/83/101/2. As you can see, Stanton still beats Cruz in all five categories, yet he’s being selected four picks later than Cruz in Yahoo! drafts.
If you’re savvy with spreadsheets, you can easily determine expected replacement level production for your league and apply that across the board for consistent player evaluation. You may only add a handful of replacement games for Mike Trout or Mookie Betts, but it’s the more accurate method. If you’re not an Excel junky, you can add replacement level production to oft-injured players to a lesser degree perhaps up to 140 games played. This way you won’t need to adjust every player.
There are several ways to incorporate replacement level production, so go with what works for you. In doing so, you may realize the value in players your league mates have written off based on their fragile reputations.
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Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
