Here’s a look at a few recent happenings around baseball and the resulting things fantasy owners need to know.
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Taijuan Walker Breakout Imminent?
Walker is off to a terrific start in his new desert home having fanned five hitters while scattering three hits in five innings. Diamondbacks beat writer, Nick Piecoro, reported Walker needed just 26 pitches, 19 for strikes, over three innings on Sunday while touching 96 MPH on the gun six times.
Walker’s results in two short spring starts have been great, but it’s the way he’s attained them that grabbed my attention. He was primarily a two-pitch pitcher last season throwing his four-seam fastball or splitter 80% of the time while mixing in an occasional curve and cutter. His fastball and splitter surrendered a .482 and .528 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters which explain why the 24-year-old has yet to experience his anticipated breakout.
Despite a 94 MPH fastball, Walker’s secondary offerings have delivered below average results. Seeking the missing complement to his lively fastball, Walker has introduced a slider into his repertoire. Over two Cactus League starts he’s spun the new slider on 40% of his pitches to right-handers, indicating it’s more than a spring experiment. Walker’s new toy boasts a 19% Swinging Strike rate, which would have made it his best swing and miss option in 2016. In addition to the whiffs, he has flashed superior control throwing the slider for a strike 70% of the time. From a shape perspective, his new weapon has demonstrated 2.8 inches of drop and 2.4 inches of break while cruising toward the zone at 87 MPH. For reference, Noah Syndergaard’s slider features 2.6 inches of drop and 2.6 inches of break with an average velocity of 90 MPH.
Is this the missing piece that propels Walker beyond his pedestrian 20% strikeout rate versus righties while mitigating his homer woes?
Our consensus projections figure Walker for a 4.27 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 143 strikeouts, which is basically a repeat of last season from a rate perspective. The move from Safeco to Chase isn’t ideal, but if the slider translates to the regular season the pieces are there for a top 50 season.
With a current ADP of 229 overall and 65th among starting pitchers, Walker should be on your radar for end-game consideration on Draft Day. He’s scheduled for his third spring start today versus the Brewers, and I’ll tweet out an update over the weekend.
Richards Passes (Mostly) First Test
Garrett Richards made his highly-anticipated spring debut this week in his first appearance since leaving a start with elbow discomfort last May. An MRI revealed a partially torn UCL which destined the 28-year-old for season-ending Tommy John surgery — or so we thought.
Richards instead opted to forego the knife and underwent stem-cell injections in his elbow with a goal of toeing the rubber on Opening Day. While it’s too early to disregard Richards as a serious health risk, I have chalked up his Cactus League debut as a success.
Richards managed a couple of strikeouts in two innings of work while surrendering three earned runs on four hits. While the box score doesn’t necessarily impress, he passed two critical tests. In my Angels Team Preview where I dubbed Richards as the team’s top bounce-back candidate, I identified Richards’ spring velocity and command as important health indicators.
The telecast didn’t offer radar gun readings, but a scout reported Richards’ fastball ranged 93 to 97 MPH. Assuming the gun was accurate, and his median fastball was 95 MPH, Richards verified a rebound to his career average velocity. Naturally, sitting 95 MPH in two innings is easier than doing so over six, so it’s important we monitor his velocity as his pitch count grows — but all things considered, this is an encouraging sign.
In addition to his velocity, Richards’ spring command is another indicator of health entering 2017. His command, or ability to spot pitches in ideal locations, was noticeably rusty. He left several pitches up in the zone which led to a few well-hit balls and three Cincinnati runs. His control, however, was adequate as he routinely attacked the strike zone issuing zero free passes.
I had an opportunity to tune into Richards’ start and noticed he was flying open with his front side. Doing so causes the arm to drag which results in pitches sailing up and in on right-handed hitters. The important question is whether his rusty mechanics are the product of his extended absence, or an alteration of his delivery to compensate for his elbow. It’s too early to answer this question, and I’m willing to give him a pass in his first outing in over 10 months, but I’ll be watching his second Cactus League start like a hawk. If he can sustain his velocity in the mid-nineties while improving upon his command, he’ll matriculate up my draft board as a potential end-game steal.
Matt Harvey Remains a Question Mark
Harvey’s first start in eight months left the Mets and fantasy players with more questions than answers. In last Sunday’s uninspiring return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, the Cardinals plated four runs before Harvey could complete the second inning.
On the bright side, Harvey recorded three strikeouts without walking a batter. The concern, however, is the velocity exhibited in his return. Radar gun readings ranged from 90 to 93 MPH — noticeably behind his usual 95 MPH heater.
Last month, I took a look at how other starters have fared in their return from TOS, which has become more prevalent in recent years. The main takeaways from the limited sample size were 1) pitchers returning from TOS averaged a mere 120 innings the following season, and 2) pitchers who did come back, on average, returned to their previous skill level.
In short, pitchers returning from TOS typically bounced all the way back or struggled to pitch at all.
The former scenario presents Harvey as a terrific Draft Day bargain and considerably more productive than the 3.77 ERA guy our consensus projections figure. The latter, however, could render Harvey useless in all formats.
It’s too early to panic on Harvey, and we should exercise patience as he eases back into action. But it’s worth noting velocity stabilizes rather quickly, and if he is still in the 90-93 range over his next few starts that doesn’t bode well for his 2017 prospects.
Harvey is scheduled to make his second start today versus the Braves which may provide additional insight into his health as Opening Day approaches.
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Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
