Here’s a look at a few recent happenings around baseball and the resulting things fantasy owners need to know.
Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator 
Moncada Lovers, R-E-L-A-X
Arguably baseball’s top prospect, Yoan Moncada played in 112 minor league games in 2016 spread across three levels. As a 20-year-old, he only compiled 27 Rookie Ball plate appearances and ultimately split his time between High-A and Double-A. His 2016 season can only be described as a huge success, slashing .291/.402/.503 with his power and speed numbers prorating to 19 bombs and 53 swipes over 600 plate appearances.
The hole in Moncada’s game, however, was the one in his bat, as he shouldered a 26% strikeout rate (31% in Double-A). Nonetheless, Moncada’s blend of power, speed, and patience (14.5% walk rate across minor league levels) made it easy to overlook the contact issues.
Despite uncertainty around his big league arrival, Moncada’s ADP (229) is considerably ahead of his ECR (289). To project such a raw and toolsy player, let’s travel to Chicago’s north side and revisit the 20-year-old version of Javier Baez’s path to the majors.
Back in 2013, a 20-year-old Baez just so happened to split time between High-A and Double-A. The similar age and stays at the same levels provide a bit of a baseline for comparison.
A couple of years removed from the ninth overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft, Baez enjoyed a dominant 2013 campaign where he slashed .282/.334/.578 while bopping 37 homers and 20 swipes over 577 plate appearances. Like Moncada, he fanned 25% of the time and witnessed his K-rate jump upon his promotion to Double-A. It’s worth mentioning Baez’s eye at the plate wasn’t nearly as impressive as Moncada’s, as he walked at about half the rate, but the power/speed combo had fantasy owners drooling.
As a 21-year-old, Baez’ solid play awarded him a 52-game stint with the Cubs in 2014 where he flailed his way to a 41.5% strikeout rate and a .169/.227/.324 triple slash. What a disaster.
In 2015, Baez earned a 28-game showing with the Cubs and improved his strikeout rate to 30%. He rode a .412 BABIP to a not-as-miserable .289/.325/.408 season that masked what would have been another whiff-laden train wreck.
Finally, last year as a 24-year-old, Baez cut his strikeout rate to 24% and put together a respectable and skill-driven .273/.314/.423 campaign. Despite his 2013 gaudy power/speed tools, it took Baez two more seasons to figure out how to make enough contact at the big league level.
In Moncada’s defense, he demonstrated an elite walk rate, whereas Baez has never sniffed double digits, but the whiffs were there nonetheless. During his September cup of coffee with the Red Sox, Moncada struck out in 12 of 20 plate appearances. That’s good (or bad) for the second highest K-rate of any rookie in 30 years.
I have little doubt Moncada will develop into a very special player, but re-draft league players might want to chill out a bit on their 2017 expectations. On the bright side, Moncada’s walk rate will lead to stolen base opportunities, and he’s sure to deliver in that department. However, there is a very real chance it will take him a few years to hit his stride.
Run Away from Iwakuma
The once reliable middle-of-the-rotation fantasy option battled an injury-shortened 2015 and hasn’t been the same since. Iwakuma managed 200 innings last year but witnessed his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates all trend the wrong direction.
The missing whiffs and groundballs can both be explained by the decreased use of his bread and butter split-finger that was the driver of his previous success. The split was far and away his best swing and miss pitch acquiring a 20% whiff rate in 2015 while compiling a career groundball rate between 65 and 77%.
A pitch he once heavily relied upon, his usage dropped to 18% last year and is down to 13% in his PitchFX captured spring starts. I don’t imagine the 36-year-old is using the splitter sparingly for any other reason than to reduce wear and tear on his elbow. The mileage on his right arm is rearing its ugly head in the form of lost velocity as well. In his major league prime, he sat 89-90 MPH with the hard stuff and is down in the 86-87 MPH range this spring. Basically, Jered Weaver on steroids.
Iwakuma’s plus control and friendly home park, now patrolled by excellent outfielders, will give him a puncher’s chance to stay relevant this year, but the end is near. Our consensus projections tab him for a 4.05 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and I’d take the over on both. He’s currently drafted as the 66th SP off the board ahead of names like Taijuan Walker, Jharel Cotton, and Ivan Nova — all of which I’d much rather roster than the twilight of Iwakuma’s once underrated career.
Go Get Christian Yelich
The general theme of this series is to highlight recent baseball happenings and the fantasy implications you need to know. However, I’m breaking the mold for this piece to profess my love for one, Christian Yelich.
The 25-year-old experienced a mini-breakout last year, cranking 21 homers — a mark many write off as fluky given he tallied 20 career homers entering 2016. As a fantasy community, we tend to scream “regression” when we witness a player do something we haven’t seen from him before. Often that’s the correct call, but I’m not so convinced Yelich is going to crash down to earth in 2017.
Yelich remained a predominantly ground ball and line drive hitter, but it’s worth noting he did post a career-high 20% fly ball rate which demonstrated his intent to add some loft to his swing. The real driver of his power surge, however, was the spike in his HR/FB% from about 15% to nearly 24%. Whether he can duplicate that mark is debatable, but I am a firm believer he can maintain most of those gains.
Yelich’s average exit velocity on air balls last season was 97 MPH. That places him in the company of sluggers like Miguel Sano, Mark Trumbo, and Chris Davis. Is Yelich going to crush 40 homers? Of course not — not with a 20% fly ball rate. Nonetheless, when Yelich puts the ball in the air, it’s a rope, making another 20 homer season a very real possibility.
Perhaps the most exciting part of Yelich’s power growth is that he didn’t sacrifice any of his batting average to attain it. The strikeouts were in line with his career norms, as was his top-notch BABIP that has to be considered a repeatable skill at this point. Should Yelich’s elite exit velocity carry over to 2017, I expect .300/20/90/90/10 which is a bit ahead of his consensus projection.
Additionally, there is a scenario where Yelich adds a touch more loft to his swing and reverts to his 2014 running habits where he’d return elite production. If he does, .300/100/25/100/20 isn’t completely out of the question, propelling Yelich into the first round of 2018 drafts.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play
Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
