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Spring Training Risers and Fallers (Fantasy Baseball)

Spring Training Risers and Fallers (Fantasy Baseball)

I’ve really enjoyed writing this series, but I’m not gonna lie – I am very glad that this our last article about risers and fallers during Spring Training. Other than the fact that my heating bill is still outrageously high, all the signs are pointing to the start of the MLB season!

This year more than ever, there have been spring training performances that have moved guys up and down draft boards. Whether it be because of injuries, heroic World Baseball Classic performances, or just generally poor numbers, rankings now look very different than rankings a month ago.

So, let’s finish this off with style. Here are your final risers and fallers for the spring of 2017.

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Risers

Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM)

deGrom has always been a fascinating case study, and not just because his name inexplicably starts with a lower case letter. He was never a top prospect and had a largely forgettable minor league career, only to have a great partial season with the Mets in 2014 and an even better full season in 2015.

He looked like he was ready for super-stardom when he hit a bit of a speed bump in 2016. An injury to his elbow limited him to just 148 innings pitched, his strikeout rate dropped below one per inning, and his ERA, FIP, and xFIP were all above 3.00.

There’s actually plenty of reason to suggest that his 2016 season wasn’t quite the regression it appears to have been (i.e., he had a 2.29 ERA in his first 21 starts and then gave up 16 runs over his final three when his elbow gave out). But, clearly, he was a notch below his former self, and the fantasy community knocked deGrom down a peg from the elite status he had coming into last season.

The obvious culprit for deGrom’s struggles was a dip in velocity, undoubtedly caused by his additional workload from the Mets’ 2015 postseason run. He averaged almost a two mile-per-hour dip from 2015 to 2016. Not surprisingly, batters had more success against almost all of his pitches:

 Velocity/BAA 2015 2016
Fastball Velocity (MPH) 95.8 94.2
BAA  .182 .274
Sinker Velocity (MPH) 95.49 93.99
BAA  .313 .296
Curveball Velocity (MPH) 82.1 81
BAA  .226 .242
Changeup Velocity (MPH) 86.24 86.30
BAA  .148  .268

 
deGrom’s velocity dropped on all of his pitches except for his changeup, which is the worst possible thing, because it just means that there was less of a differential between his changeup and his power pitches. Other than against his sinker, the batting average against deGrom’s pitches skyrocketed as he lost velocity.

But this spring, deGrom’s stuff has been popping. He is regularly sitting at 97 mph with his fastball, which is extremely encouraging not only because it’s higher than he was hitting last year, but also because it’s just the spring and his arm will only get stronger. With a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio this spring, deGrom looks ready to return to his dominant 2015 self.

Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR)

It’s our first ever World Baseball Classic riser! After taking a no-hitter into the championship game of the WBC, Stroman is getting tons of buzz in the fantasy community.

It’s fair to say that Stroman’s major league career has been a disappointment so far. Other than his dominant four-start stretch at the end of 2015 when he returned from a torn ACL (4-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP), Stroman has simply been that really short guy who looks like he should be so much better than he is.

Stroman has a career 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, with an unimpressive 7.3 K/9 rate. Sure, the metrics say he’s pitched better than his numbers (3.38 FIP, 3.32 xFIP) but I mean, it’s hard to be a breakout candidate with just a nine percent swinging strike rate, like Stroman had in 2016.

But here’s the thing. There’s more to Stroman. You know it, I know it, the American people know it. Stroman led the league in ground ball percentage last year with a rate of 60.1%, by far the highest in the league. And the strikeout potential is absolutely there, with rates of 10.7, 10.4, and 11.4 per nine innings in each of his three minor league seasons.

And that’s why the fantasy community has basically been screaming for a breakout for years. And now that he’s put the entire country on his back and shown his dominance, he looks ready to take off. Or at least ready to meet my criteria for being a Spring Training riser. Which is equally as important, no?

Michael Brantley (OF – CLE)

Brantley has crammed an entire career’s worth of ups and downs into his last few years. In 2013, he had a solid but unspectacular season, showing himself as a possible late-round 10-homer, 20-steal type of player. He exploded in 2014 and became a five-category stud, and largely kept it up in 2015 before hurting his shoulder and undergoing surgery. He then basically missed all of 2016 with the injury, and is now slowly trying to come back.

Unlike the other guys on this list, Brantley isn’t a riser because of the numbers he’s putting up this spring or the underlying metrics. It’s simply because he’s been able to get on the field. Brantley is finally playing in regular spring games, rather than minor league games, which means that the Indians are encouraged that he’ll be good to go for the start of the season (playing in minor league games in the spring allows teams to backdate DL days). He is currently batting .313 with one homer and three RBI in five Cactus league games, and is set to play in three straight games this week to prove to Terry Francona that he is ready for (near) everyday duty.

A healthy Brantley is a lock for about 30-40 combined home runs and steals, an elite average, and solid runs and RBI production.  He’ll bat third in front of Edwin Encarnacion.  In other words, it’s a potentially elite player that has gone from undraftable to late-round flier and now finally to “I’m cautiously optimistic you are going to save my offense.” Well, maybe that’s just me. Still, he’s a riser.

Fallers

Miguel Sano (3B – MIN)

I don’t actually think Sano has been falling down draft boards, but personally, his spring has me a little worried. There’s no doubt he’s got incredible power, and he has three homers and a .500 slugging percentage this spring. But putting the ball over the wall has never been the worry with Sano.

Last season, Sano had a strikeout percentage of 36% which led the league for players with at least 250 plate appearances. Just to put that into perspective, Chris Carter’s strikeout percent was 32.0% last year. In other words, Sano’s strikeout rate was bananas (which is my fancy way of saying not good – not good at all).

Fantasy owners are hoping and expecting that he’s going to cut that rate down this year, and we’ve all been drafting him accordingly. But if this spring is any indication, Sano’s whiff rate isn’t going to be close to respectable anytime soon. He’s had 48 plate appearances this spring, and he has struck out 21 times. 21 times!!! I mean, Chris Davis is out there thinking, “Man, when is Sano gonna learn to put the ball in play?” (Note: Chris Davis had a strikeout percentage of 32.9% last year – miles ahead of Sano).

Sano’s complete inability to put the ball in play makes me nervous about his prospects for 2017. The power potential remains, of course, but he simply cannot have that breakout season we are all desperate for until he gets a hold of the strikeouts.

Blake Snell (SP – TB)

Snell is someone who I expected to target when I first began prepping this offseason, but I rarely wound up with him. And a lot of that is based on his spring performance.

Snell is your classic “great stuff, no command” young pitcher. But by no command, I mean NO command. He gave up 5.16 walks per nine innings in the majors last season, easily tops among starters who threw at least 60 innings.  And while that rate was a little high even for Snell, he has always struggled to find the zone throughout his minor league career.

Because Snell’s raw stuff is so good, his ERA remained in check last year (3.54), and that number was supported by his FIP (3.39), despite allowing baserunners at a dangerously excessive clip (1.64 WHIP). But he can’t survive that way. If he can’t get his control under . . . control (words are hard!), then he’s not going to be rosterable. And, unfortunately, he’s allowed nine walks in 19 innings this spring, which boils down to a walk rate of 4.26%. That’s just not going to come close to cutting it.

I still have high hopes for Snell. But when it comes to those late round pitchers to get, his inability to command the strike zone this spring has pushed him down my draft board far enough where I’m looking at other upside pitchers in the late rounds.

Zack Greinke (SP – ARI)

2016 was simply a disaster for Greinke. He got off to a horrible start (5.50 ERA in April), and then just when he looked to be turning it around, he strained his oblique and ruined his season. Just to point out one of the most ridiculous Greinke stats to indicate how bad his season was, he allowed seven runs or more in FOUR starts, after having no such starts in the previous three years.

But really, other than a spike in home run rate, Greinke’s underlying metrics didn’t change all THAT much from his time with the Dodgers. His walk rate and strikeout rate were slightly higher and lower, respectively, but nothing that would cause a massive rise in ERA like he had.

But you know what could cause a massive rise in ERA? A significant dip in velocity. That’s not what happened in 2016, of course, as Greinke’s velocity on his fastball, slider, and curveball all remained almost identical to his career numbers.  But this spring? It’s not good. Compare Greinke’s spring velocities this year with last year:

 Pitch 2016 2017
Fastball 92.2 91
Slider 87.3 84.8
Curveball 76.8 75.5

 
Not surprisingly, the results have been rough, as he’s been hit relatively hard all spring (and Greinke had just a 1.88 ERA last spring). Greinke is a brilliant pitcher, and he doesn’t need a huge fastball to succeed. But with a giant step back last year and then a noticeable dip in velocity this spring, he’s no longer a target.

Good luck to all those of you with drafts this week. For everyone else, let’s get this MLB season started!

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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