Skip to main content

The Ultimate MFL10 Strategy Guide

The Ultimate MFL10 Strategy Guide

Now that we’ve gone through and learned what MFL10s are and how they work in the ‘Beginner’s Guide to MFL10s’ last week, let’s examine what it takes to win one of them. If you happened to miss our beginner’s guide, you can check it out right here.

Before we get into the specifics, let’s ensure you understand one thing. There is no one strategy that will work 100 percent of the time. As a matter of fact, no strategy will work even 50 percent of the time in MFL10s. What you have to do is put yourself in the best position to win, and that is what we are doing here today.

Try the only fantasy football draft software that syncs with your draft partner-arrow

In 2016, the average MFL10 took 2,483 points to win. While it would be easy to just build a team to score a set number of points based on projections, that’s impossible with best-ball formats. You need to understand that drafting an MFL10 team is different than redraft. You’ll want to take on more risk in best-ball than you would on your season-long teams, simply because the Anquan Boldin-type players who score exactly 10 PPR points seemingly every game won’t make their way into your best-ball lineup 90 percent of the time. That type of player is useful in season-long, but not nearly as much in best ball.

As mentioned in the beginner’s guide, there are certain guidelines that you want to live by when building your roster. You’ll almost always fit inside of these boundaries, because they are loose enough to veer off in just about any direction the draft takes you. With that being said, here they are:

  • 2-3 QUARTERBACKS
  • 4-7 RUNNING BACKS
  • 6-8 WIDE RECEIVERS
  • 2-3 TIGHT ENDS
  • 2-3 D/ST

Rather than dive into one specific strategy, I’m going to give you a visual explanation of what kind of value you can expect from any position, at any given time, in an MFL10. There are a lot of factors that will go into which position you’ll choose, but this will at least give you a starting point.

Win cash playing fantasy at Draft. Get a 100% deposit bonus up to $600! partner-arrow

ROUND 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
QB 23.4 22.0 20.5 19.0 18.5 18.1 17.6 17.1 16.7
RB 23.6 17.2 14.5 13.8 13.0 12.3 11.6 10.2 9.1 8.7
WR 22.9 19.5 16.1 14.9 13.6 13.1 12.7 11.8 11.1 10.4
TE 16.4 15.8 15.1 14.4 13.6 12.8 12.0 11.3 10.6
D/ST 8.3 8.2 8.1

 

ROUND 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
QB 16.3 14.9 13.6 11.7 9.8 9.3 9.1 8.8  –  –
RB 8.2 6.7 6.4 6.1  –  –  –  –  –  –
WR 9.7 9.4 8.9 8.6 7.9  –  –  –  –  –
TE 10.0 9.4 8.8 8.2 7.5 5.9 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8
D/ST 7.7 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 5.5 5.2 5.0

 
The above values represent point per game averages for that particular position, in that particular round, if all players were drafted at/around their ADP (average draft position). While you can never fully predict where every player goes, I can tell you that the 25th running back almost always comes off the board in the seventh round. Over the last three seasons, the 25th running back drafted has finished averaging in between 10.2-11.6 PPR points per game. By going through all of the data and creating averages, I was able to give you an approximate value chart.

One of the first things you’ll notice is that there are some values missing. The reason for this is that ADP varies greatly once you get outside of the top 50 at running back and wide receiver, leaving some questionable numbers at best. Those are the areas of the draft where you want to aim for upside, players who are just one injury away from being vaulted into fantasy relevance. Now that we have our starting point, we can discuss the positions and how to attack them.

QUARTERBACKS

If you’ve been playing fantasy football for more than one year, you likely know about the late-round quarterback approach. As the years have gone on, the position seems to lose some of its luster, as there are plenty of quarterbacks on your waiver wire putting up top-12 performances. The MFL10 format doesn’t have waivers and all starting quarterbacks will be owned.

If you look at the value chart, you’ll notice that running back and wide receiver points per game drop off a lot faster than quarterbacks do, hence the reason for the late round approach. Now that we know quarterbacks taken in the top five rounds score an average of 19.0-23.4 points per game, what is their percentage of finishing top 12 at their position?

QB ADP QB1 %
1 to 6 27.6%
6 to 12 17.6%
12 to 18 15.2%
18 to 25 9.8%

 
As you can see, it’s a big drop-off outside the elite quarterbacks, but very similar from QB6 to QB18. By taking one of the elite quarterbacks, you will miss out on a top 18 running back (holds tremendous value) or top 24 wide receiver. Because of that, you want to find value in the QB6 to QB18 range. If for some reason, Aaron Rodgers falls into the fifth round and the top 18-20 running backs are gone, this is where you can deviate off your strategy, because you know that he is a great value at that point. If you wind up with a top five quarterback, your plan should be to draft one more quarterback in the 12-14 round range. You don’t want to grab three quarterbacks anymore, simply because you need to make up for that missed running back, wide receiver, or even tight end in the late rounds.

The ideal strategy, though, is to get two quarterbacks in the 8-11 range and add a third one later. You have to understand the players that you are drafting, though. If you are taking a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger (who always misses a few games), you need to get additional insurance (a third quarterback). On the other hand, if you have Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, you’re likely set with just two because you know that those guys always play 16 games.

RUNNING BACKS

This is where opinions start to differ, as the Zero-RB strategy has seemed to become the most popular one in fantasy circles. It’s a bit different in MFL10s, simply because there is no waiver wire and you need to hit on your draft picks. Not that it can’t work, because it can if you hit on your late round running backs, but we’re here to learn the most likely of scenarios. Similar to the quarterbacks, let’s take a look at how often each running back records a top 12 performance.

RB ADP RB1 %
Top 6 49.8%
6 to 12 37.7%
12 to 18 26.2%
18 to 24 19.4%
24 to 30 14.5%
30 to 36 16.8%
36 to 42 17.3%
42 to 50 11.5%

 
As you can see, it would take roughly three running backs drafted in the later rounds in order to make up for that top-six running back that you passed in the first or second round. The biggest drop-off at the position comes after the top 18 are drafted. This should come as no surprise, because there are limited workhorse running backs nowadays and those are the guys you should be targeting inside of the first five rounds.

You can also see that drafting a running back as the 20th off the board, might as well be the running back drafted at the 40th off the board in terms of RB1 performances. The points per game will vary because those drafted around the 40-range are likely high quality backups filling in for an injured starter. This will happen often, as the running back position is the most likely to miss games due to injury. Of the top 50 running backs drafted the last three years, they average 12.5 games played. That number is close to 14 games played for wide receivers.

The ideal strategy for running backs is to get as many of the top 18 as possible, while also snagging at least one of the top 12 wide receivers. If you can get two or three workhorse running backs and a top 12 wide receiver to open your draft, you’ve set yourself up nicely. That way you’ll need to grab just one or two more for the remainder of the draft. Once the top 18-20 of them are gone (variance in how the top 18 are valued), you can take your time to get more and draft some other positions. Remember that if you take the Zero-RB approach and wait at the position, you’re risking zeroes for the weeks they don’t play.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Before getting into the receivers and what you should be shooting for, take down this note: You want at least 12 combined running backs/wide receivers on your team, with 13 being the most likely/ideal scenario. Know that if you took running backs early, you’ll want to load the majority of your 12 or 13 with wide receivers. On the flip side, if you went wide receiver heavy to start your draft and missed out on those top 18 running backs, you’ll need to be on the higher end of 4-7 running backs.

Wide receiver is different than running back, in the fact that there’s not such a steep decline outside of a certain amount. It’s a very steady decline throughout the draft, so you essentially get what you pay for. Nothing better demonstrates this than the chart below.

WRs WR1 %
1 to 6 36.5%
6 to 12 28.3%
12 to 18 22.7%
18 to 24 19.4%
24 to 30 17.1%
30 to 36 14.5%
36 to 42 12.4%
42 to 50 8.7%

 
It’s not like running backs where the No. 20 and No. 40 put up the same amount of top-12 performances. It’s like this for two reasons. 1) Just because a starting wide receiver gets hurt, it doesn’t automatically equivalate success to his backup. Third and fourth tier wide receivers aren’t guaranteed touches like backup running backs are. 2) Wide receivers don’t miss as many games as running backs, making it harder for late round guys to make an impact.

So the ideal strategy here coincides with that of the running backs. You want to get at least one top 12 wide receiver to give you some stability along with your workhorse running backs. The area where you will build your wide receiver corps is in the 4-8 round range, stockpiling players who are in starting roles and may be on the verge of a breakout. Once you get outside of the consensus picks, look for players on high-scoring offenses. Michael Thomas, Chris Hogan, Malcom Mitchell, and Davante Adams were on a lot of my MFL10 rosters last year (so were Marvin Jones and Torrey Smith, but you get the point).

TIGHT ENDS

In a game where we try to project the future, the tight end position is the most difficult, as it has more volatility than the stock market. Using the chart below, you can see that the position is very top-heavy, but it also isn’t that large of a gap between top-12 performances.

TEs TE1 %
1 to 6 22.8%
6 to 12 18.3%
12 to 18 12.1%
18 to 25 12.6%

 
Players like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have severely skewed these numbers for many years, but we’re now at the point where risk may not be worth the reward with age/injuries piling up. The increase you get in TE1 performances by taking a tight end in the first five rounds doesn’t make up for the loss you take by not drafting a running back or wide receiver.

Just look at it like this: Drafting a tight end in the third round gives us 15.8 points on our value chart. Let’s assume you take a running back or wide receiver in the tenth round, where their values total 8.7-10.4 points. That total comes out to 24.5-26.2 with a 15.4 percent rate of top-12 performances. On the flip side, if you were to have taken a running back or wide receiver in the third round and a tight end in the tenth, your total would have been 24.9-26.7 points per game with a 22.5 percent rate of top-12 performances. The points per game isn’t a significant difference, but the 7.1 percent difference in top-12 performances most definitely is.

By taking a tight end early, you are accepting volatility into your team, and that’s not a good thing. The ideal strategy is to aim to take the 10th-12th tight end off the board. While this will vary from draft to draft, the average draft position of the No. 12 tight end is the 10th round. After that, plan on taking two more tight ends as you see fit. If you draft a tight end early on (top five rounds), play it similar as to how we did with the quarterbacks, by just drafting one more in the 12-14 range.

D/ST

You’ve likely already come to the realization that you shouldn’t be drafting a defense early in your MFL10s. When looking at the value chart, you can see that by drafting a defense in the top 10 rounds, you’re only getting a two point advantage over those who wait until the 15th round and beyond. Meanwhile, you’re missing out on every other position. Seriously, if you feel the need to draft a defense in the 10th round, I’d rather you take another quarterback. Just don’t do it. There is so much variance year-over-year that you cannot accurately project what a defense and its special teams unit will do. Because of that, draft your defenses from round 15-20. Based on your preference, you can draft either two or three of them.

Ready to pick a team TODAY and win cash? Get started at Draft partner-arrow

In the end, you’re looking to grab as many touches as possible from running backs and wide receivers, with the other positions taking a backseat. Not that the other positions aren’t important, but wide receivers and running backs make up 66 percent of your starting lineup.

By now, you should be prepared to dominate your MFL10s. The last piece of advice is to have fun. Just because your sheet has one player over another, it doesn’t mean that you need to take them. Get your guys when you can, because there is no guarantee you’ll have the opportunity on your next pick.


Subscribe: iTunesStitcher | SoundCloud | Google PlayTuneInRSS

Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

More Articles

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

6 min read

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Up - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Article