Facebook (FB) is trading at an all-time high of $137.17 on the NASDAQ. It was viewed as a no-brainer investment when first coming public. The thing is, depending on when you invested, owning FB provided a vastly different experience.
If you were a seed investor, you’ve been thrilled throughout the whole process. You could have sold at the IPO price or held on until now. If you bought at the IPO price, you endured some pain. After opening to the public at $38/share, the price immediately went down and bottomed out at $19.69. I’m sure many panicked and sold. When the price did settle, you had the value investors scooping in to buy cheap shares. Finally, you had the group that waited until the stock went above the IPO price and bought before the breakout.
What’s all that have to do with fantasy baseball and Trea Turner?
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Turner is the no-brainer investment with huge growth potential. The seed investor is the dynasty player that bought Turner years ago. The buyers at the IPO price will be everyone in redraft leagues this year. The value investors will be those that pounce if Turner does struggle and gets demoted or traded. The last group will want to see a larger sample size to make sure things are settled, then get in before the breakout.
Will owning shares of Turner mimic the experience of FB at IPO?
Turner was drafted with the 13th overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft by the San Diego Padres. His signing bonus was $2.9 million. In December of 2014, Turner was involved in a three-team deal that sent Wil Myers to San Diego and Turner to the Washington Nationals.
Early scouting reports had Turner pegged as a solid hitter with his calling card being his speed.
“Turner’s signature tool is his well above-average speed, which earns some 80 grades from evaluators. He could be a dynamic leadoff man because he’s a huge basestealing threat with the patience to draw walks and enough pop to hit maybe 10 homers per season. To reach his offensive ceiling, he’ll need to tone down his swing and his approach, which can get overly aggressive when he focuses too much on trying to hit for power.” – Jim Reyerriecks
Back in 2015, the Nationals called up Turner for 27 games. He hit .225 with a 9.1% walk rate and struck out 27.3% of the time in 44 plate appearances.
After tearing up Triple-A last year, Turner returned to the big club and hit .342, 13 home runs, and stole 33 bases in 324 plate appearances. The walk rate was only 4.3%, but he decreased his strikeout rate to 18.2%.
As a result, the offseason hype machine elevated Turner’s ADP to 11 overall. Drafters have been clammoring to own shares of the potential size/speed fantasy stud. And for good reason. The projection systems have Turner batting close to .300 with 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Sumptuous indeed.
Now, when I initially started researching for this article, I thought Turner would be a fade for me. He’s played a total of 100 games in the majors and his price is not cheap. In addition, the low walk rate troubled me.
Was he a hacker that could get exploited? How would he steal bases if he wasn’t on base? My inital thoughts went to Billy Hamilton, Mr. Can’t Steal First, because he also has a low walk rate. With that said, he’s stolen 50+ bags each of the past two seasons. My concerns were subsiding.
Glancing at the batted ball profile and plate discipline numbers, though, the pendulum swung the other way because the two were remarkably similar in most of the categories. But then I looked at the hard contact rate.
Hamilton’s hard contact rate was 19%. Turner’s was 34.8%. Basically, Billy hit a bunch of dribblers, while Trea barreled up and launched some screamers. This is evident in the exit velocity numbers. Last season, there was only one week in which Hamilton had an average exit velocity over the league average of 89 mph. Conversely, Turner had all but three weeks over.
The fact that Turner is a better hitter than Hamilton establishes a pretty high floor for stolen base potential.
So, then I started thinking about Jose Reyes. He was a player that did not walk often but possessed an excellent hit tool. In fact, isn’t this the kind of player we are expecting Turner to be? In his prime, Reyes would hit close to .300 with 10-15 home runs, and steal around 60 bases.
Here’s the thing, though. Reyes had a strikeout rate close to 10%. His contact rate in the strike zone was over 90% and contact rate, in general, was mid-80%. The HR/FB rate was under 10%.
Turner’s strikeout rate is close to 20% and his contact rates are a tick lower. The HR/FB was 16% last season. In addition, Turner swung at 32.6% of pitches out of the strike zone. Reyes, in his prime, had a rate in the 20% range.
Man, I knew Reyes was a stud, but didn’t realize how awesome he was until really looking at his numbers. It makes me want to fade Turner because he’s quite not at that elite level yet. But…
His hit tool is very good. The plate discipline numbers could be better, but it’s not as if he’s flailing away. The Nationals lineup is going to be very good with Eaton, Murphy, Harper, and Rendon batting behind him. Dusty Baker likes to run. The Nationals were fifth in stolen base attempts per game in 2016, so Turner should be given every opportunity to run. The deciding factor for me is the multi-eligibility. Turner is currently eligible at 2B and OF and will gain SS eligibility very soon. That versatility is huge.
Barring any kind of injury, the floor that Turner provides with his stolen base prowess makes an FB IPO swoon unlikely. While I’m lower than most on his home run output, I do think 10 is a safe floor with the potential for much more. That power/speed combo, with a relatively high floor, situated in a fantasy-friendly environment is too much to pass up.
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Stan Son is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.
