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Updated Closer Report (Fantasy Baseball)

Updated Closer Report (Fantasy Baseball)

Back in January, we took an early look at the closing situations, ranking them from least to most desirable in terms of fantasy. It was a useful exercise for those hardcore fantasy baseball players that draft in January and those of us trying to distract ourselves from what we knew would be another Patriots Super Bowl victory.

But now that Spring Training is in full swing, it’s high time we take a look back at those rankings and see how things have changed. Some teams have given us some clarity, while others have told us that we will officially have no more clarity before the season begins. I’m not looking to name names, so I’ll just say thanks for that, unnamed teams that rhyme with the Neds and the Nathletics.

So, here’s how we’re going to do it. In the chart below, I’ve provided the list of closing situations, along with the current rank and the rank I gave back in January. I’ll then explain anything of significance, throw in some dad jokes, and set you all up for your drafts. Sound good? Good.

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Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 1 2
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 2 3
Orioles (Zach Britton) 3 1
Giants (Mark Melancon) 4 4
Cardinals (Seung-Hwan Oh) 5 8
Cubs (Wade Davis) 6 5
Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna) 7 6
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 8 7
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 9 9
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 10 10
Rays (Alex Colome) 11 11
White Sox (David Robertson) 12 12
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 13 13
Indians (Cody Allen) 14 14
Astros (Ken Giles) 15 15
Marlins (A.J. Ramos) 16 16
Tigers (Francisco Rodriguez) 17 17
Rangers (Sam Dyson) 18 18
Pirates (Tony Watson) 19 19
Braves (Jim Johnson) 20 25
Diamondbacks (Fernando Rodney) 21 24
Twins (Brandon Kintzler) 22 29
Padres (Brandon Maurer) 23 23
Rockies (Adam Ottavino) 24 20
Phillies (Jeanmar Gomez) 25 28
Brewers (Neftali Feliz) 26 30
Angels (Huston Street) 27 27
Nationals (Shawn Kelley) 28 21
Athletics (Committee) 29 22
Reds (Committee) 30 26

 
The Shuffle at the Top
Britton dropping to third is purely the oblique scare, which seems to be behind him, but the word oblique is enough to move him down a few spots. This is in line with how the ECR and ADP have unfolded anyway, so now, all the world is in harmony.

The Second Tier
Closers four through 10 (Melancon, Oh, Davis, Osuna, Kimbrel, Herrera, and Diaz) are all relatively close in the ECR and ADP, so it’s largely personal preference. Oh jumps a few spots just because the minor concerns that held him back a spot or two (Trevor Rosenthal suddenly remembering how to pitch and retaking the closer’s job) are gone, with Rosenthal not at all a candidate to close. Just a few minor notes:

Although Melancon is the fourth reliever taken in ADP, he’s sixth in the ECR. Again, it’s largely personal preference, but I’m noting him to make it clear that I actually would have him in a tier unto himself – below the top three, but above the group I just mentioned. Melancon shows absolutely no signs of slowing down, will pitch for a team that is notorious for winning a lot of close games, and has 100% job security. Sure, the strikeouts aren’t there, but I’d personally trade the upside of some of the guys behind him for the utter security he brings.

I’d also note that Herrera seems to be both ranked and drafted as if he’s in a tier below that group. I have no idea why. He is the unquestioned closer on a team that will win a lot of close games. He provides elite all-around numbers, and he succeeded in the role last year. My only guess is that people aren’t believers in his strikeout bump last year – believe it. It’s all about his development of that nasty slider. It’s real. He’s real. Draft him with confidence.

Note: If somehow it’s not Herrera’s strikeout rate that’s holding him back in drafts and instead is the concern that Joakim Soria will take over as the closer, well, I don’t know what to tell you. Soria was flat-out terrible last year. The only way Soria is taking over as closer is if Ned Yost announces the decision via envelope delivered by Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway. #oscarshumor

The Mess at the Bottom
Once we get to the 20th-ranked closer, everything goes a little haywire. That’s mostly because these guys either aren’t very good or are stuck in some muddled situations. But, there’s obviously been a few changes in the rankings since January, and there’s a reason behind it.

The Risers:
Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney move up a bit because they have either been officially named or are obviously recognized by their teams as the closer. That’s all it takes when we get this low.

Brandon Kintzler is the big riser here because it’s official that Glen Perkins won’t be ready to start the season and Paul Molitor has said Kintzler will begin the season as the closer. If he performs well, and if Perkins has trouble coming back, he can run with the job.

Finally, Jeanmar Gomez and Neftali Feliz jump a tiny bit. Gomez at least will get the first crack at closing, and there are rumblings that Feliz will too. So, that’s something I guess?

The Fallers:
Adam Ottavino drops a few spots with the Rockies signing Greg Holland. It’s likely that Ottavino will open as the closer, but it’s still murky.

As for Shawn Kelley, forget it. I just refuse to believe the Nationals are going to head into the season with Kelley as the closer. I’d bet some major waffles (sorry, I allow my kids to play games where they make wagers, but only if the wagers involve waffles) that the Nationals trade for David Robertson soon (and that’s why the White Sox situation remains where it is – if you draft Robertson, you’ll definitely have a closer, and if you draft Nate Jones to back him up, you’ll probably have two).

The Athletics and Reds are basically self-proclaimed committee situations right now. No need to waste a draft pick.

And that is all for now, my friends. We’ll be back with another look in a few weeks. So help me if we get another announced committee. So. Help. Me.


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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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