Yasiel Puig has tantalized and frustrated fantasy players since he arrived in the Majors in 2013. At just 26, he could still have a great career ahead of him, but will fantasy owners – or the Dodgers – get much out of Puig in 2017?
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The Good
Puig has displayed all the characteristics fantasy players look for over the course of his career. In each of his four seasons, he’s been on 15-homer pace at worst and flashed upside for 20-plus. He stole 11 bases in both 2013 and 2014, and even in his extremely disappointing 2016 was on course to post high single-digits if he had not been demoted.
The Cuban has also shown batting average upside, with a .319 mark in his debut season and then a full season of a .296 average the following year. To add to that, Puig has demonstrated he can also be an asset in OBP leagues, with a career walk rate of 8.7%, including a 10.5% rate in 2014. On an overall production basis, Puig has never failed to be an above-average hitter since he arrived in the majors, even though he did so at the age of just 22.
There’s also the fact that at times, Puig simply looks the part. His athleticism, energy and size have left scouts and fantasy prognosticators alike dreaming of what could be if he puts it all together. Even his non-fantasy attributes highlight how unique Puig is, from his ridiculous arm to the remarkable story of his escape from Cuba.
The Bad
The fact that we’re still here debating whether Puig can put it all together is not such a good sign. Despite his obvious physical potential, the 26-year-old is yet to have a truly elite fantasy season, even if his 2014 qualified as such from a WAR perspective. The 20-plus homer potential is yet to turn into actual production and the batting averages have tailed off as his BABIP has returned to a league-average level. We might expect a talented hitter and above-average runner to sustain a BABIP over .300, but the signs increasingly suggest that Puig might not be either of those things.
Injuries and off-field concerns have also served to limit Puig’s playing time to the point that he hasn’t been a useful fantasy option in standard-sized leagues for quite some time. Hamstring strains meant he played just half a season of games in 2015, and his left hamstring continued to hamper him in 2016.
Perhaps worse, however, is the fact that the Dodgers simply demoted him entirely for a month in August 2016 after the acquisition of Josh Reddick. Puig had a .706 OPS at the time but the Los Angeles front office also admitted that off-field factors, such as a lack of preparation and commitment, contributed the decision. A trade seemed imminent, but a partner willing to give up the return the Dodgers wanted for Puig could not be found.
The outfielder would proceed to crush Triple-A pitching for a near-1.000 OPS and return to the team in September, where he hit four home runs with a .900 OPS to drag his season line back up to slightly above-average.
The Outlook
Projection systems haven’t forgotten Puig’s first two years in the league, which is why Steamer, ZiPS and the Davenport projections all have him hitting at least .275 with an OBP in the .340-.360 range. That kind of production, along with the 17-19 home runs and 6-7 steals most of the systems give him, would make him a startable but unspectacular outfielder in a standard league. That’s more or less where he’s being drafted, at a consensus ADP of 209th overall, 64th amongst outfielders.
There are plenty of issues surrounding Puig’s potential value. The systems all hedge at least a little on his playing time, and he’s projected to bat towards the bottom of the lineup. The Dodgers could demote him again if things go really wrong, but even if things aren’t quite that extreme, they also have Andrew Toles, Kike Hernandez, Andre Ethier and Franklin Gutierrez on the roster should the performance – either on or off the field – not be what they’re looking for.
None of those players are likely to seize the job outright, whether it’s because of platoon issues or simply health concerns. The biggest playing time problem might ultimately come from another direction entirely, in the form of top prospect Cody Bellinger. Although the 21-year-old is primarily a first baseman, he’s actually athletic enough to play the outfield, and his destruction of minor league pitching over the last three years suggests he’s ready to take the next step. Of Adrian Gonzalez and Puig, it’s not hard to guess who’s more likely to be shunted aside to accommodate Bellinger.
We shouldn’t forget that there’s upside here too. Puig could show increased commitment that helps with both his health and his hitting. A more consistent, healthy Puig could soon be batting toward the top of a lineup that contains Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Gonzalez, a spot that could yield a ton of runs scored with a .350 OBP.
Ultimately, Puig isn’t going to cost much in most leagues and is a gamble worth taking as a final starting outfielder. Just be prepared for a prolonged slump, another multi-week injury, or a reduction in playing time, and in a deeper league, have a backup option ready to step in should 2017 turn out more like 2016 instead of 2014.
Check out all of our 2017 fantasy baseball player profiles
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
