Now that we’re into the fourth week of the regular season, things are finally starting to stabilize. The Cubs are back atop the NL Central, the Astros have the largest division lead of any team, and the Braves hold claim to their rightful spot as the worst team in the National League.
But even as team-wide results return to normal, there are still numerous performances being impacted by luck at the player level. The players listed here have been at one end or the other of that spectrum but can expect their numbers to see drastic changes in the weeks ahead.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup & Trade advice 
Buy Lows
Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
As the first overall pick in 2015, Swanson has the makings of a potential future superstar. Even if he’s not there yet, his skill level at the moment is, at the very minimum, that of an average player. So when he’s one of just three players in all of baseball with a negative Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), something’s clearly not right.
The first number that jumps off the page as an explanation is his .173 BABIP, which inevitably will go up. In fact, he appears capable of maintaining a BABIP even higher than league average due to his above-average speed and his ability to generate power with his swing: his average exit velocity of 89.5 mph ranks 32nd out of 106 players with at least 50 recorded velocities.
He’s also shown increased plate discipline this year, swinging at a higher percentage of pitches inside the strike zone while laying off those outside of it. While he’s not going to be Mike Trout just yet, you don’t need him to be for him to help your team.
Carlos Martinez (SP – STL)
Martinez has struggled to start the year, already allowing five runs in two separate games. In another one, he walked eight batters. That doesn’t seem to be a formula for success.
But Martinez has the stuff to get results — he’s proven it the past two years with an ERA of 3.02, and even showcased in it his first start of the season when he shut out the Cubs over 7 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts.
His problem thus far has been consistency, but even accounting for those three sub-quality outings, Martinez still has a respectable 3.60 FIP and 3.24 xFIP, largely in part due to his 29.8 strikeout rate, fourth in the NL among qualified pitchers and behind only guys named Kershaw, Scherer, and deGrom.
His swinging strike rate and contact rate would both be the best of his career right now, so his strikeout rate isn’t a fluke either. His .351 BABIP against and 15.8 HR/FB rate are though, and it’s clear skies ahead when those return to league norms.
Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF)
The Shark has seen some better days. The owner of a 7.40 ERA, he’s probably already been dropped in many leagues after allowing at least three runs in every game he’s started. However, those numbers are misleading.
For starters, he’s already had to pitch in two of the six most hitter-friendly parks via ESPN’s Park Factors in Chase Field and Coors, during which he had his two worst games. He hasn’t exactly been elite outside of that, but that’s been more due to luck than anything else.
He holds a 27.5 strikeout rate, backed by solid whiff rates just like Martinez. His .359 BABIP and 29.4 HR/FB rate have drastically inflated his ERA, as can be seen from his 2.80 xFIP.
Don’t forget; this is a guy who put up a 2.99 ERA in 2014. He’s probably not going to have a sub-three ERA, but sub-3.50 isn’t out of the question — his ERA was 3.66 in the second half of last season after he made the change to start throwing his curveball again. Now he’s had time to practice that pitch, and while the results may not be there yet, he’s clearly got the stuff.
Sell Highs
Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL)
Freddie Freeman is a very good baseball player. I’m not trying to deny that. But he’s not as good as the numbers he’s put up this season, which, by definition, makes him a sell-high candidate.
He’s currently running a .429 ISO, which would rank among the top-10 highest in a single season all-time among qualified hitters, matched only by Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds. So, yeah, this isn’t sustainable.
His .405 BABIP will come down, even if only to the .370 mark he put up in 2016, and his 38.9 HR/FB rate will experience similar regression. Besides, even with the gaudy numbers he’s putting up right now, he still only has nine RBIs to show for it — that’s a season-long pace of just 81, which comes from playing on a “not as bad as 2016, but still pretty bad” Braves’ offense. I have no doubt that Freeman can repeat last year’s performance in which he put up some pretty impressive numbers, but even only that ranked him sixth on ESPN’s player rater among first basemen.
Blake Snell (SP – TB)
Blake Snell has a pretty big problem: he can’t throw strikes. He consistently sported a walk rate of over 10 percent in the minors, then followed that up with a 12.7 mark in 19 starts last year. That number has risen to 16.1 this year as he’s walked the same number of batters he’s struck out.
According to PITCHf/x, Snell has thrown the ball in the strike zone on just 37.7 percent of his pitches, fifth-lowest in baseball. That’s not necessarily a problem by itself, as other pitchers like Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke both have lower numbers than Snell but have found success this season.
The problem comes when Snell can’t get batters to swing at those pitches out of the zone — Snell is a bottom five pitcher in swing rate on pitches out of the zone according to PITCHf/x. Those two stats together don’t inspire much confidence that Snell can fix his walk problem, and if he can’t, it’ll be tough for him to remain fantasy-relevant.
George Springer (OF – HOU)
Currently on pace for 63 home runs, Springer is teasing owners who once thought he had the potential to put together the fifth 40/40 season in MLB history. Of course, it doesn’t appear like he’ll ever reach that stolen base total, but the “2015 me” can dream. It’s unfortunate, then, that it doesn’t appear the power surge is for real either.
His exit velocity is below average this year, ranking 65th out of 106 hitters with at least 50 recorded velocities. It’s also more than two miles per hour below the numbers he’s put up the past two seasons, a worrisome sign.
The bigger concern, though, is his launch angle. After posting 8.8 and 8.7 marks in 2015 and 2016, respectively, his 6.0 mark in 2017 ranks just 91st out of the 106 hitters. A low exit velocity and launch angle aren’t exactly a recipe for sustained success in the power department, so he needs to make some adjustments if he’s going to surpass 30 home runs this season.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
