Welcome to Day 3 of the 2017 MLB season. No team has played more than one game, and two have played zero, so if you’re expecting hard-hitting analysis I suggest you look elsewhere. We’ve had almost nothing to go off, and if you thought overreacting to preseason performance was blasphemous, you probably also think the same of drawing conclusions from a single game.
Smart owners won’t read much, if at all, into one performance, but if you can manage to take advantage of someone who does, it could pay dividends almost immediately. Of course, it’s unlikely that anyone’s willing to part with star talent this early in the season, which is why I’m not recommending Kris Bryant as a buy-low candidate despite his 0-4 performance. I’ve tried to keep the players on this list to reasonable guys who you will be able to acquire cheaply or offload at a premium.
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Buy Lows
Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
Hey, I warned you. It’s an obvious pick and certainly not hard-hitting, but Tanaka’s a buy low all the same. He got rocked for seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings, not exactly encouraging from your Opening Day starter. Moreover, he pitched in the first game of the season when no other games were on, meaning his owner likely saw him pitch and is still having nightmares about it. However, his day wasn’t as bad as it seemed. Six of the 11 balls in play he allowed fell for hits, so there was clearly some bad luck involved. Two of his four fly balls also went for home runs, which even at Yankee Stadium is an unsustainable percentage. Of course, anything can happen in small sample sizes, which is exactly the point. He actually had a decent day in terms of contact allowed, as he generated swings and misses on 17.9 percent of his pitches and had a 25.3 whiff rate, both above his career averages. If his owner is panicking, take advantage. This is still a top-25 pitcher – nothing has changed.
Gary Sanchez (C – NYY)
I swear I’m not a Yankees fan. Gary Sanchez is just a beast of a human. Yes, he went 0-5. But there were positives as well. He made contact in four of his five plate appearances, and when Sanchez makes contact, he makes hard contact. Two of his balls in play had an exit velocity of over 100 mph according to Baseball Savant, and he had the hardest hit of the day at 115.7 mph. He also had a third at 93.7 mph, above last year’s league average of 89.1 mph. Gary Sanchez is essentially Giancarlo Stanton, except he plays catcher and his name’s nowhere near as cool. But there’s a reason he was drafted as a top-three catcher. The dude can rake, and while he’s not likely to be available, he might be soon if he has a few more games like this one.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF – TB)
More known for his defense, Kiermaier could end up providing sneaky value this season. He’s batting second in the lineup ahead of guys like Evan Longoria and Brad Miller, continuing a trend that started in August of last season. That alone should afford him good run and RBI opportunities, especially if he can get on base. He was able to do that last season, putting up a career-high .331 OBP even with a career-low .246 batting average thanks to an increase in his walk rate from 4.5 percent in 2015 to 9.7 percent in 2016. Kiermaier had two more walks in his first game of this season, so it looks like that trend will continue. He also stole 21 bases and hit 12 home runs in 105 games last season (prorates to 32 and 19, respectively, over 162 games). Oh, and he’s available in 40 percent of ESPN leagues, so you might not even have to trade to get him.
Sell Highs
Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS)
A big-name prospect hit a home run in his first game. Need I say more? Everyone already loves Benintendi, and his performance yesterday only pushes his value even higher. Of course, that also means it’s a great time to sell. Benintendi may be a future star, but he’s not there yet. He hit just 11 home runs in 131 games last season across three levels, so he’s clearly not as much of a power hitter as some other of the young prospects. Projections have him hitting 10-12 home runs, so if you can find someone that believes he’s a 20-home run hitter based on his big day, you should absolutely sell.
Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD)
Anyone who hits two home runs on Opening Day, they’re going to be a sell high. Nothing personal. I actually like Grandal this year and was planning to trade for him at some point in my league, but now I’ll have to wait a little while. If you have him and someone in your league needs a catcher, try throwing his name around. Only sell if you’re getting more value than you paid for him, though.
Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
See Grandal, Yasmani.
Khris Davis (OF – OAK)
See Odor, Rougned (I suppose the joke isn’t as funny the second time, but hey, there were three guys. I wasn’t gonna write three paragraphs saying the same thing).
Blake Treinen (RP – WAS)
Treinen got the first crack at saves in the Nationals bullpen and had a great game, throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts to top it off. However, there are a few concerns. For one thing, he hasn’t exactly been lights out in the past. He’s had walk rates north of 10 percent each of the past two seasons, which is hardly the key to sustained success. If When he slips up, there are multiple guys waiting right behind him to take over the closer role. Shawn Kelley is arguably more deserving as it is, so don’t expect Treinen to have a long leash. If you can get any kind of value for him, especially in a head-to-head league where late-season performance is critical, by all means, cash in.
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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
