Eric Thames has been getting all the headlines lately, and rightfully so. We’re nearing the end of April, and he still leads the league in home runs (11), OPS (1.393), ISO (.534), and wOBA (.562).
When you’re edging out Bryce Harper, who’s having a remarkable season himself, you’re not doing too shabby. No question, the dude has been a beast.
But his hot start has brought up memories of one Chris Shelton, a Tigers player who hit 10 home runs out of nowhere in April of 2006, a situation not unlike what Thames has done in 2017. Analysts and writers didn’t know what to make of Shelton either, but by the end of that magical April, people were coming around to the idea that he could be a budding star.
Your average fan doesn’t remember Shelton, though. Following that now infamous April, he would go on to hit eight more home runs in his entire career. He would play his last Major League game in 2009, at just 29 years old.
This isn’t to say that Thames will necessarily follow a similar path, but it’s a sobering reminder that we often don’t know when a hot start is real or not. Stats are still a bit wonky at this time of year.
We have fourteen qualified players with an OPS over 1.000 this year. At the end of 2016, David Ortiz was the only player to finish was an OPS above that mark (1.021).
Look, I’m not trying to ruin the Thames party. He’s been a great comeback story, so even if he isn’t the next coming of Barry Bonds, let’s hope he doesn’t disappear into obscurity like Shelton either. Of course, let’s hope he’s completely legitimate too.
But Thames has already received plenty of attention in this space and everywhere else. He’s not the only player off to a strong start. Let’s look at a few guys who are going under the Thames radar, and doing some impressive things of their own.
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Nick Castellanos Leads the League in Hard-Hit Rate and Barrels
One guy who isn’t getting a lot of attention is Nick Castellanos, who’s quietly off to a promising 2017. His .759 OPS and three home runs may not move the needle, but he’s crushing the ball.
Castellanos leads the league in hard-hit rate with a ridiculous 57.9% and coupled with his minuscule 5.3% soft-hit rate when he’s making contact, he’s making pitchers pay. Maybe it’s no surprise then that he also leads the league in Barrels (12), and batted balls at 95-plus mph (34). His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is an impressive 99 mph.
Has all this translated into results? Perhaps the home run total is mildly disappointing, but he has a .241 ISO, which includes five doubles and three triples.
For the long term, an elevated strikeout rate is slightly concerning (28.9%), but that isn’t really out of character (24.9% career rate). You weren’t drafting him in fantasy for batting average anyway. However, if Castellanos can keep up his hard-hitting ways, he’ll obliterate his career-best 18 home runs from last year.
Jason Heyward swinging at pitches in the zone 69.8% of the time
The Chicago Cubs may have won the World Series, but along the way, there was a lot of grumbling about free-agent bust Jason Heyward and his woeful year at the dish. Heyward had career-worsts all over the place, including home runs (seven), OPS (.631), wOBA (.282), and wRC+ (72).
2017 is off to a decidedly different start. Heyward has slugged three home runs, so he’s already nearly halfway to last year’s total, and is slashing a solid .284/.346/.432. His average exit velocity is up from 87.2 mph in 2016, to 90 mph this season.
So, what could be the reason for the change? Part of it is a revamped swing, but he’s also far more aggressive. He’s swinging at pitches in the zone at a 69.8% clip, by far the highest rate of his career.
Last year, he swung at pitches in the zone just 60% of the time. He’s been particularly aggressive against fastballs, swinging at them 50% of the time, up from about 40% the year prior.
Heyward will likely never repeat the 27 home runs he had in 2012 and become the big star fans once hoped for. But amazingly he’s still just 27 years old, and a return to the able contact hitter he was when the Cubs signed him is something they will gladly take.
If you bought low and drafted him in fantasy, it looks like you might have a bargain on your hands. Don’t expect a power binge, but home runs in the mid-teens is a reality again.
Luis Severino is third in strikeout rate (32.7%)
Luis Severino may finally be putting it all together. Following yet another excellent outing last night — this time shutting down the Red Sox — Severino has a 3.00 ERA through four starts with 33 strikeouts and just four walks in 27 innings.
Nothing in his peripherals suggests that this is a fluke. Pick any of your standard ERA estimators, and it’s even better than his ERA, with a 2.90 FIP, 2.11 xFIP and 2.20 SIERA. As the header says, his 32.7% strikeout rate is near the top among qualified starters and is supported by an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. He’s also limiting hard contact (23.4%), and keeping the ball on the ground often (55.6%).
It’s all a remarkable improvement for someone who had a cringeworthy 5.83 ERA last season and struggled even to make the rotation. It’s only four starts, and he’ll undoubtedly have some ups and downs at age 23, but the arrow is pointing way up, and the future is suddenly looking very bright.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
