DraftKings Lineup Advice: Wednesday (4/19)

by Matthew Davis | @_mattywood_ | Featured Writer
Apr 19, 2017

Starlin Castro and the Yankees have Wednesday’s second highest projected team total

Tonight provides a jam-packed, 11-game slate that has a decent range of Vegas totals (6.5-9.5). Monitoring Vegas line movements and run totals is a beneficial tool that will help gauge your projections.

For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $13,800 vs. COL

Do you ever get anxiety while watching pitchers you own take the mound? No need to worry, Kershaw is your DFS anxiety reliever that will allow you to kick your feet up and enjoy the show.

Kershaw is the best pitcher on any slate and tonight is no different. The former MVP and three-time CY Young winner comes into this game in elite form, as usual, owning a 27.9% strikeout rate and 2.47 SIERA. One of his three starts came at Coors Field, which doesn’t help any pitchers’ stats. You can expect his strikeout rate to increase, starting tonight against the Rockies.

The Rockies currently have the fourth highest strikeout rate (23.3%) and second lowest wRC+ (71). They are also getting a huge downgrade in park factor and come into this slate with the lowest projected run total (2.42).

There is plenty of value across the board, making Kershaw an easy roster in all formats.

Robert Gsellman (NYM): $6,700 vs. PHI

Gsellman was a “sleeper” coming into this season and that chatter carried over into the DFS world where he was somewhat of a chalky pitcher his first two starts. Recency bias will surely have the masses off Gsellman tonight after allowing a whopping eight runs to the Marlins in his last outing.

The Mets’ 23-year-old has solid peripherals and his advanced stats would suggest that the success we saw in 2016 isn’t a fluke. Gsellman is posting a solid 26.0% strikeout rate and 3.44 SIERA. The league average line drive rate for pitchers is 21.0%, Gsellman is inducing a line drive rate nearly five percent lower at 16.1%.

Confidence is key for any young pitcher and even though his game logs won’t suggest he should have confidence, his usage in pitches would disagree. Gsellman has started throwing his secondary pitches more often this season, increasing his curveball (11.3%) and changeup (9.8%) usage. Although he isn’t using his slider as often, he still throws it 13.7% of the time. Keeping the Phillies off balance will be key as they currently own the fifth highest strikeout rate (23.2%).

Gsellman hasn’t cracked any of my lineups this season, however, he certainly will tonight. His salary has dipped to $6,700, and he will finally get to face a team other than the Marlins. The Mets are currently a -130 favorite with the line opening up at -120. The line movement has also dropped the Phillies’ projected run total down to 3.55.

Catcher

Welington Castillo (BAL): $3,800 @ CIN

Castillo hasn’t gotten into a power surge just yet, but tonight could certainly change that. We are all too familiar with The Beef’s enormous power against left-handed pitching, owning a .367 wOBA, 124 wRC+, .243 ISO and 53.5% hard hit rate last season. He also posted a nice 26.9% HR/FB rate.

The Orioles at Reds currently has the highest run total at 9.0, and the O’s have an attractive 4.44 projected run total.

First Base

Hanley Ramirez (BOS): $4,100 @ TOR

Every five days we have to guess which Francisco Liriano is going to take the mound. Seriously, Liriano is more fickle than the Kardashians.

I’m going to side with Vegas tonight as the line opened up with the Blue Jays being a slight favorite at -105. The Jays are now the dogs and the Red Sox projected run total is up to 4.30.

Ramirez is projected to bat cleanup in the Red Sox’ loaded lineup. His line drive rate is up to 29.4% and Hanley feasts off left-handed pitching, owning a .453 wOBA, 186 wRC+, .331 ISO and 38.6% hard hit rate last season. He also posted a 25.7% line drive rate and 33.3% HR/FB ratio.

Second Base

Starlin Castro (NYY): $3,600 vs. CWS

Castro has been on fire to start the 2017 season, making his manager Joe Girardi promote him as the team’s cleanup hitter. Castro currently owns a .400 wOBA, 165 wRC+, .164 ISO and 31.9% hard hit rate. Castro is spraying the ball all over the field, hitting the ball to the opposite field at a 29.8% rate.

The Yankees have the second-highest projected run total tonight at 4.83, and Castro provides salary relief at only $3,600.

Third Base

Chase Headley (NYY): $3,400 vs. CWS

Writing up Headley isn’t something I thought would occur in 2017. Headley has me reminiscing his days in San Diego where he was more than competent at the plate.

Headley’s walk rate (18.5%) is way up and his strikeout rate (16.7%) is down. Both have resulted in an 80.5% contact rate. Remember, good things happen when you put the ball in play.

If you’re going to pay up for Kershaw, you’re going to need to find hitters that provide salary relief in good spots; favorable park factors, high projected run totals, facing below-average pitchers. Headley completes mychecklistt and is projected to hit behind Starlin Castro tonight, making for a cheap mini-stack.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $4,000 @ TOR

Bogaerts can do it all, and tonight should be no different. His 2016 season against left-handed pitching was elite, owning a .378 wOBA, 134 wRC+, .176 ISO and 35.6% hard hit rate.

Xander is projected to hit fifth tonight, behind Hanley Ramirez, giving you another stable mini-stack. The Red Sox will certainly have runners on base and Bogey’s elite 90.7% contact rate should turn into fantasy gold tonight. Take advantage of his $4,000 salary and his 29% bargain rating.

Outfield

Brett Gardner (NYY): $3,900 vs. CWS

Gardner isn’t the flashiest DFS player to roster, however, he fits this lineup mold quite well. He knows how to get on base as his .340 OBP this season is right around his career average (.346). Gardner made it known that he wants to be more aggressive on the bases this season, and he has put his speed where his mouth his with five stolen bases in the early going. He’s also pulling the ball this season at an extreme 41.9% rate, and as you know, Yankee Stadium is very friendly to left-handed hitters who pull the ball.

Gardner is projected to bat leadoff tonight for the Yankees, and good things tend to happen when rostering the leadoff hitter on teams with high projected run totals (4.83).

Kevin Kiermaier (TB): $3,400 vs. DET

Kiermaier is one of my favorite low-owned options to own in tournaments due to his speed and sneaky power.

The Tigers are rolling out Jordan Zimmermann, who’s strikeout rate (13.3%) is equal to his walk rate (13.3%). Zimmermann is inducing a hard-hit rate of 43.8% and currently owns a 6.10 SIERA. Those indicators along with his .226 BABIP point toward the Rays putting up crooked numbers tonight at The Trop.

The Rays have a decent projected run total, currently sitting at 4.18.

Corey Dickerson (TB): $3,300 vs. DET

My friend Yancy Eaton will be happy to see his favorite player Dickerson get some love. “C-Dick” is doing things I love this season, owning a .395 wOBA, 165 wRC+, .259 ISO and 36.6% hard hit rate.

Dickerson’s 24.4% line drive is up 6.9% from last season and he projects to do well against the likes of Jordan Zimmermann. Rostering the Rays’ explosive leadoff hitter is certainly a viable option tonight.

Recommended Tournament Lineup

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $13,800 vs. COL
Robert Gsellman (NYM): $6,700 vs. PHI
Welington Castillo (BAL): $3,800 @ CIN
Hanley Ramirez (BOS): $4,100 @ TOR
Starlin Castro (NYY): $3,600 vs. CWS
Chase Headley (NYY): $3,400 vs. CWS
Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $4,000 @ TOR
Brett Gardner (NYY): $3,900 vs. CWS
Kevin Kiermaier (TB): $3,400 vs. DET
Corey Dickerson (TB): $3,300 vs. DET

If you have any questions or need suggestions, feel free to tweet me at any time. Best of luck this week.

Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings >>

Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.


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