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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (4/24)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (4/24)

Happy National Pigs-in-a-Blanket Day! Are you a hot dog, Vienna sausage, or a bacon loyalist? Do you prefer biscuit or croissant wrapping? Give me the little Viennas wrapped in anything flaky, and I’m happy.

Sadly, some of you aren’t excited enough to celebrate this occasion. Shame I say!

Oh well, you didn’t come here for dough-wrapped meat talk, so let’s see what value plays are wrapped up in this nine-game Monday slate on DraftKings. See what I did there?

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Pitcher

Amir Garrett (CIN): $6,700 @ MIL
Garrett enters his fourth start of the year as a slight road favorite coming off an outstanding performance in which he sat down a dozen Orioles via the strikeout. Garrett also only allowed one walk in seven innings, and so far, he’s given you no fewer than 21 DraftKings points.

He draws K-happy Milwaukee today, and his 47% ground ball rate should help keep the ball in the yard while pairing a 2.67 xFIP with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. With the price starting to catch up to the performance, this could be your last chance to get him and his nasty cutter at sub-$7,000 cost, for that reason, he’ll likely be chalky with people trying to fit in Coors Field bats.

Jason Vargas (KC): $8,000 @ CWS
Vargas is simply rolling. He has obvious regression coming, but he’s still likely to be the chalk. He’s improved in every start as evidenced by last week’s nine-strikeout, four-hit gem against the Giants. He’s walked just one batter in his last 14 IP and gets his best matchup yet in Chicago’s South Side.

As good as Garrett’s numbers are above, compare that to Vargas’ 53% GB rate, 1.93 xFIP and 11.5:1 K:BB ratio. Now, factor in the White Sox’s scuffling lineup only putting up a .268 team wOBA and a meager 72 wRC+ while whiffing a quarter of the time, and his drastic price hike may still not be high enough to fade the road favorite.

Other Notables

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,200 @ SF
Regardless of a sub-par hitting environment at AT&T Park, I still like him here. He’ll probably get a top six lineup spot against Matt Cain, who is a gas can these days.

Regardless of Grandal’s poor performance against him in the past, it’s always encouraging that Grandal (.430 wOBA vs. RHP this year) is a switch hitter, making him valuable against bullpens as well. Plus, he just had an off day, greatly reducing chances of getting lifted for a pinch hitter.

Other Notables

First Base

Logan Morrison (TB): $4,000 @ BAL
In 53 plate appearances against righties this season, he’s hitting the ball well with .277 ISO. His .373 wOBA and 152 wRC+ are also well above his career averages. While some may argue for some regression, his BABIP is leaning to the other side of that argument, like a big game is coming.

He’ll face Ubaldo Jimenez, who is by no means a world beater. Tonight, in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, LoMo could put one through a right field window.

Other Notables

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $3,800 vs. TB
With so many good high-priced options at the keystone today, I don’t recommend trying to save there, but should you need the savings, Schoop makes for a sneaky good play as most people will likely not play him in a righty-righty matchup. Schoop however, has always been a reverse splits hitter and 2017 has been no different. Throw in that he’s already taken Chris Archer deep twice in his 16 career ABs against him, and that’s not a terrible option.

Other Notables

Third Base

Justin Turner (LAD): $3,400 @ SF
Let’s combine the reason we like Grandal (facing a gas can) and Schoop (reverse splits hitter), and already Turner makes a great play considering those both apply to him in this spot. Don’t be surprised if the total on this game rises before first pitch tomorrow and don’t be surprised if the Dodgers are supplying a heavier share of the runs. His eight-game hit streak is evidence he sees the ball well, and his price drop makes him a cheap play to capitalize on.

Other Notables

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD): $4,200 @ SF
You’ll be hard-pressed to find many Coors Field bats in this piece throughout the year as DK does a good job pricing them up. I know this stretches the term “value” a bit (and I swear I’m not trying to push you into a Dodgers stack), it’s just…have you seen the player pool? It’s pretty gross at SS tonight.

If you aren’t targeting either of the two Coors bats above Seager, below him is nothing short of questionable bats outside of Jordy Mercer, who will likely get the leadoff spot versus a lefty, per the usual. That being said, your best default non-Colorado play is one of those two guys. Besides, you can also play Trea Turner in the OF if you are so inclined.

Other Notables

Outfield

Andrew Toles (LAD): $2,900 @ SF
Yes, another Dodger. I can’t help it, they all seem underpriced, almost as if the algorithm at DK thinks MadBum is on the bump tonight. Rather than beat the dead horse that is Matt Cain, I’ll remind you that Toles should hit atop the Dodgers’ lineup tonight and he could very well get the chance to score a few runs this evening with some solid bats behind him.

Toles is the type of hitter that gives Cain fits as he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact, but also rarely strikes out lefties. They can pester him with base knocks, look for Toles to do the same.

David Peralta (ARI): $4,000 vs. SD
I was torn between Peralta and Corey Dickerson here, but Peralta has shown a little more consistency over his career, and I like him better based on his recent performance thus far versus righties. He’s back at home, and likely hitting in the two hole, making him a solid value at $4k.

He’s sitting just a notch below is career .373 wOBA & 132 wRC+ at the moment with .364 & 125 wRC+ marks. However, this matchup versus Jhoulys Chacin is tasty, and if he goes deep, or gets a couple of extra base hits, his ISO will move back toward the .200 neighborhood.

Texas Rangers Left Field Platoon Special
No matter who Texas pencils in tonight at the revolving door that is LF, you can count on that person to be low-owned in GPP tournaments. Whether it’s the likes of Delino DeShields ($3,900), Jurickson Profar ($3,600), or Ryan Rua ($3,200)…they’ll be facing Phil Hughes, a notorious reverse-splits pitcher who also has known struggles with the long ball.

I’m not saying whoever starts will have a good game, but this is most certainly a “wait until lineups come out” position here. My gut tells me Rua will get the nod, he’s my least favorite, but at least he allows for nice savings if you want to get an OF from the Nats-Rockies game.

Other Notables

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J.C. Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from J.C., follow him @JoshDalley72.

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