FanDuel MLB Value Plays: Wednesday (4/19)
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel MLB value plays! This article will focus on the 11 game main slate on FanDuel. Be sure to check the team lineups as they are released to make sure these players are in fact in the lineup, as well as the weather around the country. Let’s go ahead and take a look at my favorite value options for the day.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Robert Gsellman (NYM): $6,700 vs. PHI
I don’t see the need to go super cheap with you pitcher tonight since Clayton Kershaw and some other aces are in pretty nice spots. However, if you really want to get contrarian consider using Gsellman. On the surface, it appears Gsellman has been extremely bad with an ERA of 9.28. However, his 3.44 SIERA and 3.36 xFIP suggest he hasn’t been nearly that bad. Gsellman does have nice strikeout upside with a 10.97 K/9 in his first three starts. Also, despite the improvements made by the Phillies from 2016, they still rank 21st in wRC+ and 8th K% against right-handed pitchers in 2017.
Welington Castillo (BAL): $2,800 at CIN
Surprisingly, the Orioles as a team do not hit left-handed pitching well. However, Castillo has over the course of his career, with a 0.360 wOBA, a 0.193 ISO and a 40% hard contact percentage. Amir Garrett has been solid so far in his rookie season, but his xFIP of 3.69 suggests that he has not been nearly as dominant as his 1.42 ERA indicates.
Logan Morrison (TB): $2,100 vs. DET
We’re really going to have to find some value bats in our cash game lineup tonight if we want to fit Kershaw in our lineups. One near minimum salary player to consider tonight is Morrison. Morrison has been solid so far in 2017, with three home runs in his first 50 plate appearances. Jordan Zimmermann, on the other hand, has been hit pretty hard in first three starts with a hard contact percentage of 43.8%.
Dustin Pedroia (BOS): $3,000 at TOR
Pedroia is not off to a great start, but his hard contact percentage of 46.7% suggests that he has been pretty unlucky so far. Pedroia has always fared well against left-handed pitchers during his career, with a 0.370 wOBA. Francisco Liriano has always had a history of having issues with his command and he may find himself in a lot of trouble against the Red Sox tonight, considering they have the fourth-highest walk rate against left-handed pitchers this season.
Evan Longoria (TB): $3,100 vs. DET
At the moment, there does not appear to be any true cheap, value options I feel comfortable recommending, If for some reason the Mets move Jose Reyes back to the leadoff spot, I guess you could go that route. If not, I do not recommend going with someone cheaper than Longoria. I typically use Longoria against left-handed pitchers, but he has done well against righties over his career with a 0.347 wOBA and a 0.209 ISO.
Zack Cozart (CIN): $3,100 vs. BAL
Shortstop is another spot that looks pretty thin with value options, so right now I’m going to recommend going no lower than Cozart. Cozart is off to a really nice start in 2017 with a 216 wRC+ and a 0.498. These numbers are obviously not sustainable for the entire season, but there is no reason for me to believe that tonight is going to be the night he cools off. He has an excellent matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been absolutely terrible in each of his first two starts in 2017.
Brandon Guyer (CLE): $2,400 @ MIN
Guyer has been historically solid against left-handed pitchers over his career, with a 0.371 wOBA. His matchup against Adalberto Mejia seems pretty solid too, since Mejia has really struggled with his control early in 2017. The one downside to using Guyer is that he sometimes is lifted for a pinch-hitter when opposing teams bring in a right-handed relief pitcher,
Billy Hamilton (CIN): $3,000 vs. BAL
Tonight is a great night to use Hamilton. Ubaldo is a not a good pitcher and he really struggles at holding opposing runners on base. This could be a night that Hamilton runs wild on the base paths, if he can just get on base.
Josh Reddick (HOU): $2,800 vs. LAA
Reddick is another solid source of value tonight. He has been decent against right-handed pitching over his career with a 0.338 wOBA and 0.186 ISO. On top of that, he has been hitting in the two-hole lately for the Astros.