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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 3

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 3

Welcome to the latest installment of waiver wire reports for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. We’ve got two weeks’ worth of data to play with and can absolutely make concrete statements about players now. Well, not really, but there’s more to feel okay about. Isn’t much of the fun here speculating on those waiver-wire bats and sifting through small samples to see what shines? Let’s go digging.

Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through April 17.

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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned

Brandon Phillips (2B – ATL): 30% owned
We’ll lead off with a guy many of you will likely say, “come on, he’s owned in my league!” Well, Phillips is still only taken in 30 percent of leagues despite scoring six runs, homering, notching four RBIs and stealing three bases with a .364 average over his last week. Atlanta isn’t being shy about letting him run, and his perfect rate thus far won’t prompt a red light anytime soon. He still has the tools to hit .300 and has 10/20 potential with the current slate of opportunity. Hitting fifth in this up-and-coming lineup could do the veteran, and your fantasy team, well.

Chris Tillman (SP – BAL): 24% owned
Nothing fancy here as Tillman is still ways away from making his 2017 debut, but his first rehab start is in the books as he allowed one run with three strikeouts over 2 2/3 innings for Double-A Bowie on Monday. He posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP last season alongside a useful 7.33 K/9 and 16-6 record, so if you’ve somehow managed to retain an empty DL slot among the bounty of DL stints thanks to the implementation of the 10-day DL, then make the stash.

Trevor Rosenthal (RP – STL): 19% owned
Some will clamor for Rosenthal to get the ninth inning again, though Seung Hwan Oh likely has plenty of leash despite allowing a run in four of his five appearances this season. Rosenthal’s 101 mph heater may just need to do its thing in earlier frames for now. That said, it doing its thing can still be helpful to fantasy owners considering his five strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings of work. That’s resulted in a neat little -1.36 FIP and xFIP behind the 3.86 ERA. You’ve just got to love early-season metrics. Those in holds leagues have likely already made the move, but others should consider him as well.

Wily Peralta (SP – MIL): 24% owned
If you’re sharp enough to be reading this than Peralta is likely owned already, but 24% is still below our bar and is pretty cruel for a guy who has started 3-0. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that his poor 2015 and first half of ’16 left a horrid taste in fantasy owners’ mouths, but he’s been spot on since being recalled in the middle of last season. While he isn’t this good — his 3.75 FIP, 4.40 xFIP and 4.56 SIERA aren’t buying the 2.65 ERA — he has the tools to be relevant in mixed leagues.

Keone Kela (RP – TEX): 1% owned
Kela was called up from Triple-A in the wake of Sam Dyson’s trip to the DL and was immediately called on to pitch the ninth on Monday night. Okay, so Texas had a 7-0 lead at the time, but still! He set his hitters down one-two-three with a strikeout, so that’s nice to see. While Bush will (rightfully) get the first crack at it, he isn’t a bastion of health right now and Jeremy Jeffress (16% owned, worth a look himself) may not be able to stave off the flamethrowing Kela. At 1% owned, it’s worth a shot. Tony Barnette (4% owned) is also out there if you really want to invest in what should be a maddening Texas bullpen situation.

Chase Anderson (SP – MIL): 22% owned
It feels weird to endorse multiple Milwaukee pitchers (and honestly, Jimmy Nelson — 21% owned — deserves a look as well) but here we are. Anderson had posted a crisp 0.69 ERA through his first two starts before delivering a solid victory against the defending champions at Wrigley Field on Monday night. His 1.60 WHIP on the day wasn’t stunning, but that’s as potent a lineup as the 29-year-old is going to face. With a solid 2.71 FIP and 3.67 xFIP through 18 innings thus far, he just may be knocking on the door of sustainability.

Trey Mancini (UTIL – BAL): 17% owned
When a guy ties the Major League record for homers hit in his first 12 games, you pay attention. It worked with Trevor Story last season, right? Dino Restelli is totally in the Hall of Fame! Okay, well it’s not the most predictive record, but it appears to be a coin flip so that’s good enough for me. On a serious note, Mancini does absolutely possess true game power, but Baltimore just happens to boast a rather crowded roster and Buck Showalter isn’t going to get cute. Unless it’s with his closer in a playoff game, but that’s neither here nor there. With a .306/.357/.472 triple slash through his four seasons in the Minors, perhaps Mancini is worth an add in deep-bench formats.

Mitch Moreland (1B – BOS): 16% owned
Moreland currently owns a completely sustainable 60 percent hard-hit rate to fuel his .441 BABIP and .333 batting average — 100 points higher than his .233 mark from 2016. This is less about what Moreland has done to date with his high BABIP and more about what should be in the pipeline. His hard-hitting ways indicate that he’s seeing the ball well and his 7.7 percent HR/FB rate should regress toward his career mark of 15 percent. Given his surrounding conditions at Fenway Park in a potent Boston lineup, he could deliver numbers on par with his 2015 production (23 homers, 85 RBIs, .278 average).

Pablo Sandoval (3B – BOS): 24% owned
I know, why am I endorsing a guy who is hitting .143 and may be on the cusp of losing his everyday spot in the lineup? Well, his power swing is clearly still working (three homers in 46 PAs) and his average is being slaughtered by an unruly .100 BABIP that is currently the worst mark out of all qualified hitters not named Ryan Schimpf (.095). Realizing that Sandoval has been creating some bad luck over his past few seasons, he still isn’t historically bad and clearly can still make some loud contact. Hopefully, Boston realizes how unlucky he’s been and allows him to stabilize that rate alongside what could be an 18-homer season at Fenway Park.

Alex Wood (SP – LAD): 4% owned
Wood bounced back from an iffy spot start on April 10 against the Cubs to turn in 3 1/3 spotless innings of relief on April 15 against the D-backs — collecting the win with three strikeouts — en route to being the heir apparent to once-again vacant rotation spot left by Rich Hill. With Hill’s health up in the air, Wood may end up making more starts than him by season’s end. Considering the strong 3.18 FIP, 3.29 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA that the southpaw posted in 60 1/3 innings last season — with over a strikeout per inning (66) — he should be added for a start at Arizona on April 22.

Deep League Targets – <10% Owned

Martin Prado (3B – MIA): 8% owned
Prado doesn’t get a lot of love in rotisserie formats, but those of you in points leagues should be aware of his disciplined bat returning to the heart of Miami’s order. Owner of a hilariously low 3.9 percent swinging-strike rate over his career, he should be a strong bet to challenge for 65-plus runs and RBIs alongside 8-10 homers and a .300 average while only striking out once every other game. He also hit 37 doubles last season.

Matt Davidson (UTIL – CWS): 4% owned
Davidson has long owned a bat that can crush homers, it just comes with the stereotypical strikeout rate around 30 percent and a low-.200s batting average. After hitting .199 and .203 at Triple-A in 2014 and ’15, respectively, he managed a .268 mark last season and has gotten off to a hot start in the bigs this season. His .355/.364/.742 start is thanks to a wild .615 BABIP and 33.3 percent HR/FB rate, both of which will likely end up cut in half by year’s end, but the hot start does likely earn him a longer look. Playing time equals opportunity and attention in fantasy baseball. Don’t expect the next big bat, but solid AL-only pop should be there.

Taylor Motter (SS/OF – SEA): 4% owned
Motter will, unfortunately, be nudged from the starting lineup once Jean Segura returns on April 21, but we should still discuss his current run of three homers over his last five games. Those five games also followed his three-double game on April 11, as the intriguing shortstop has ridden some good fortune to finally put forth the talent he’s shown in the Minors. He’s averaged roughly 15 homers and 20 steals over his last three seasons, but simply hadn’t gotten much of a chance in Tampa Bay prior to his trade to Seattle this offseason. It’ll be short-lived for now, but don’t forget about Motter should a chance open up again down the road.

German Marquez (SP – COL): 0% owned
Marquez appears to be the most likely candidate to fill in Jon Gray’s rotation slot, and while Colorado pitchers are not what anyone likes to see, his is another young arm worth giving a look. The age-22 righty just struck out seven in only 3 1/3 innings of work on April 15 while fellow prospects Jeff Hoffman and Harrison Musgrave — his likely competition for the spot — haven’t impressed thus far. Marquez may not be able to go more than five innings in his first start, but he has the stuff to post an ERA in the mid-threes with a plus walk rate (2.19 BB/9 in 135 2/3 Double-A innings last season).

Andrew Toles 4% owned
Toles won’t play every day, but the age-25 outfielder should prove useful by reversing course, actually. His profile is much more “high-average speedster” rather than “power bat.” He hit 10 combined homers and stole 24 bags between all levels of play (Single-A through the MLB) in 464 plate appearances last season, never checking in with an average lower than .314. His current .229 average is weighed down by a .192 BABIP, and while the three homers thus far are nice, he simply isn’t a 23.1 percent HR/FB rate kind of guy. Enjoy the decent pop, but buy in for the other production and his opportunity as the leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching.

Robbie Grossman (OF – MIN): 2% owned
Grossman has been dancing around the batting order between the two-hole and the five-hole lately but has hit safely in seven of his last nine games with a .423 average, seven runs scored, a homer and three RBIs over that span. He’s not Ted Williams or anything, but his trained eye is also sporting eight walks compared to only two strikeouts in those nine games as he looks to replicate last season’s .386 on-base percentage. If given 500 PAs, he could turn in 15 homers with an OBP that flirts with .400 and an average around .280, which will play in plenty more formats than two percent of leagues.

A.J. Griffin (SP – TEX): 2% owned
Griffin is going to draw some attention after turning in six scoreless innings against Oakland on Monday in which he allowed one measly hit and a walk against eight strikeouts. First of all, if he pitched in spacious Oakland Coliseum all of the time then this would be a different story, but mostly one just has to stay grounded and realize he’s got a 4.11 ERA and 0.85 WHIP on the heels of a .167 BABIP. And his low career BABIP (.253) is only due to so many balls leaving the park (career 1.66 HR/9). Don’t expect things to suddenly change. He’ll be good for roughly a strikeout per inning, but remains a volatile asset otherwise best left to AL-only formats.


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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.

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