Woohoo! Baseball season begins Sunday, and I couldn’t be more excited. With the beginning of the season comes the beginning of the fantasy baseball season. By Tuesday, I’ll be receiving should I drop player x for player y questions in full force. I’ll be proactive and suggest not doing anything rash. That shouldn’t need to be stated, but you’d be surprised by the head-scratching transactions questions I receive before the end of the first week of the season. Being active and staying on top of things is good, though, and if you have DL spots in your league, roster openings could be present for adding talent from the free-agent pool right out of the chute. Two things I keep especially close tabs on out of the gate are lineup arrangements and velocity/pitch mix exhibited by pitchers. If a player who’s widely available hits in a more favorable than expected lineup spot, I’m more willing to scoop them early and see how things shake out. On a related note, if a pitcher is throwing harder or succeeding and featuring a significantly different pitch mix or new pitch, a hot start becomes easier to believe in, and I’m more willing to beat my league mates to nabbing them off the waiver wire.
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In addition to the start of the season bringing anxiousness to owners, it also brings different weather conditions than we’ll see during the summer month. Many parts of the country don’t feel like spring yet (spoken by someone living in Central New York, where there’s still snow on the ground), and colder weather results in balls not traveling as far as if the temperature were warmer. Chris Constancio discussed the impact of cold weather on Fall playoff games a little over a decade ago for The Hardball Times, but the idea also applies to early in the season. If you’re chasing early-season dingers, doing so at cold ballparks isn’t a great decision. Interestingly, Constancio’s research indicated pitchers strike more batters out but also walk more batters in cold weather. Moving on from the early-season housekeeping notes, let’s dive into a look ahead at the first week of the season.
Matchup Notes for Hitters
Favorable
Giants @ Diamondbacks (4), @ Padres (3)
The Giants open the season’s first week with a pair of series on the road. They’ll open in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league for a four-game set against the Diamondbacks. Check out the gaudy park factors for Chase Field provided at StatCorner. Petco Park in San Diego actually suppresses run scoring for left-handed batters more than AT&T Park, but it bumps run scoring by one percent for right-handed batters, and the park factors for homers are much more favorable in San Diego than in San Francisco. Oh, and then there’s the matter of San Diego’s rotation. It’s terrible.
Rockies @ Brewers (4), vs Dodgers (3)
The Rockies aren’t at home for their opening series, but Miller Park is a heck of a consolation prize. Milwaukee’s rotation isn’t exactly scary, either. The fielding independent stats were far less enthused about Junior Guerra’s breakout season than his 2.81 ERA would suggest, and he’s the “ace” of the staff. According to FanGraphs, he tallied a 3.71 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA. Baseball Prospectus credited him with a 3.87 DRA. Again, he’s the No. 1 starter for Milwaukee. The last three games of the week for the Rockies are in their hitter’s paradise in Colorado, Coors Field.
Pirates @ Red Sox (3), vs Braves (3)
The Pirates play six games this week while many other clubs play seven, but they’ll be treated to favorable hitting conditions in Boston, and they’ll be utilizing a designated hitter in the American League Park. Their home park, PNC Park, is around an average run-scoring environment for the final three games of the week for the Buccos. Atlanta could opt to skip the fifth spot in the rotation and turn to Julio Teheran on Sunday, but I’ve been rather vocal about my feeling that he’s overrated, and the rest of the rotation is mediocre at best.
Dodgers vs Padres (4), @ Rockies (3)
It’s no coincidence that two of the teams highlighted in the Favorable section have series against the Padres. Barring unexpected performances from their hurlers this year, picking on San Diego’s putrid rotation will often prove fruitful for gamers. The Dodgers’ hitters will also get a significant boost from playing three road games at Coors Field.
Unfavorable
Indians @ Rangers (3), @ Diamondbacks (3)
The ballparks the Indians play in to open the year are hitter-friendly places, but one is located in the National League and will eliminate the designated hitter. That could result in one of Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion sitting while the other starts at first base. It’s possible Santana plays the outfield, but it’s not clear with some murky information (found here and here) about his outlook of playing the outfield in National League parks this season. Eliminating one of Santana or Encarnacion from the lineup for three games takes a big piece out of the offense. Turning attention to their opening series, Cleveland will face a pair of talented starting pitchers in the form of Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels in games one and three of the season. I’m not advocating sitting Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez or Encarnacion, but if you’re in a shallower league with weekly lineup changes and have options to start over Santana, it’s worth considering.
Pitcher Notes
Matt Harvey dialed up the velocity in his latest spring training start, but I’d suggest keeping him glued to the fantasy pine for the opening week of the season. He was mostly rough in the spring, and he struggled mightily last year before shutting it down and ultimately having surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.
Jared Massey of Dodger Blue wrote this piece about Hyun-Jin Ryu prior to his final spring tune-up. Massey noted that Ryu’s velocity now sits in the upper 80’s, but he’s made it work in the spring. The lefty pitched five innings in his final spring start against the White Sox allowing three earned runs on five hits (two homers), with no walks, and four strikeouts. Apparently, manager Dave Roberts has seen enough to believe Ryu’s diminished velocity won’t hamper his ability to retire big leaguers in games that count because Ryu earned a spot in the rotation. In leagues larger than 12-team mixers, he’s worth rostering to see how he performs early in the year when the games count. He can be added to watch lists in anything shallower, as his pre-injury skills were plenty good enough to be shallow-league relevant. While the lefty was the fourth starter announced to be in the rotation, he’ll actually start the team’s fifth game of the season in Colorado and isn’t start worthy in the most hitter-friendly park in the Majors.
Speaking of Dodgers’ starters, Scott Kazmir will start the year on the disabled list. He was reportedly sitting between 83 and 85 mph in his last outing, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. He can safely be ignored in leagues of all sizes, but his struggles merit mentioning since it thins out the viable starting pitching options for the Dodgers. They entered the spring with a glut of starters and multiple arms battling for the final two rotation spots. It just about came down to the wire, but Brandon McCarthy edged out Alex Wood for the last spot. Given the fact Ryu and McCarthy have combined to pitch just 67.2 innings collectively the last two years, gamers in large leagues or points formats heavily skewed in favor of starters over relievers shouldn’t cut bait with Wood just yet. Wood already has relief pitcher eligibility at some sites, and should he get bumped into the rotation, he’d provide gamers a nifty edge in the aforementioned points formats slanted in favor of starting pitchers. Don’t forget uber-talented southpaw Julio Urias will eventually enter the rotation mix, though. He’s not going to break camp with the team, but that’s merely so the club can monitor his innings and not burn them up in advance of a postseason berth.
If you drafted Raisel Iglesias, you can let out a sigh of relief. His shower accident won’t prevent him from breaking camp with the team. He was lights out after moving to the bullpen last year, and while Reds manager Bryan Price has indicated a willingness to use a closer-by-committee approach, Iglesias is the best arm of those vying for save opportunities. The talented righty also does enough in the ratios and strikeout departments to have value when others poach some saves. Feel free to use him during the opening week of the season in all league types.
The news for Steven Matz owners isn’t as fortunate. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. The lefty’s talent isn’t in question, but he’s been oft injured throughout his career, so this is a dubious start to his 2017 campaign. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo are the two most likely candidates to fill Matz’s void in the rotation, but given Wheeler’s innings limit for this year, my money would be on Lugo getting the nod. Lugo split time between starting and relieving for the Mets last year, and while his 2.68 ERA in eight starts spanning 47.0 innings looks shiny, the fielding independent marks (4.93 FIP, 4.91 xFIP, and 5.02 SIERA) don’t support it. He also left a lot to be desired in the strikeout department with a 15.2% K% as a starter. Unless you’re in an exceptionally deep league, Lugo can be left in the free-agent pool.
Playing Platoons
The less restrictive the move limits in a league, the more enticing utilizing platoons becomes. Even if you’re in a league with a semi restrictive moves limit, if you’re dealing with injuries, grabbing a player with a sizable platoon split and a friendly week of matchups can help ease the pain of the injured player’s loss.
The Indians project to face lefties Martin Perez and Cole Hamels in their three-game series with the Rangers, and they’ll draw lefty Robbie Ray in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks. As a result, Guyer should be busy in week one. Among batters who have received a minimum of 200 plate appearances against southpaws since 2014, Guyer ranks tied for 25th in wRC+ (149), per FanGraphs. In 505 plate appearances against lefties in that time frame, he’s hit .296/.404/.469 with 14 homers and six stolen bases. Toss in the hitter-friendly park factors in Texas and Arizona, and there’s a lot to like about the 31-year-old outfielder this week.
Joyce followed up a horrific 2015 season with the Angels with a hell of a bounce back for the Pirates last year. The 32-year-old smacked 13 homers and hit .242/.403/.463 with a 20.1% BB% in 293 plate appearances for the Buccos, and he ripped an impressive 36.0% hard-hit ball rate (Hard%). Looking at just his work against right-handed pitchers produces even more eye-catching results. In 251 plate appearances against righties last year, he hit .244/.406/.477 with a 20.3% BB%, 12 homers, and a 38.1% Hard%. The A’s brought him in during the offseason to serve on the heavy side of an outfield platoon. Oakland projects to face just two lefties in a seven-game week.
Whether the Red Sox use Drew Pomeranz in their fifth game of the season — which it looks like they plan to do — or skip the fifth starter and turn the rotation back over, thus, throwing Rick Porcello and Chris Sale on regular rest on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, the Tigers are slated to face three lefties in six games to kick off their 2017 campaign. Since reaching the Majors for a 12 plate appearance cup of coffee in 2014, McCann has ripped lefties to the tune of a .283/.335/.529 triple slash line with 13 homers, a .247 ISO, 132 RC+, and 39.1% Hard% in 244 plate appearances. Catcher lacks depth, so if you ended up with a lackluster option in a 12-team, single catcher mixer or something larger, McCann’s a strong streaming option.
Last year was a lost season for Duda, but even with that being the case, he didn’t embarrass himself in 140 plate appearances against right-handed foes (six homers, .252/.329/.447, .195 ISO, 107 wRC+, and 37.1% Hard%). Since 2014, he’s tallied 1,033 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers hitting .253/.360/.499, with 54 homers, a 12.6% BB%, .246 ISO, 139 wRC+, and 40.8% Hard%. He’s hit for power in the spring and appears to be over the back issues that derailed his 2016 campaign. Assuming lefty Adam Conley starts in the fifth game of the year for the Marlins, the Mets will only face three right-handed pitchers in their first six games (the three southpaws they’ll face makes Wilmer Flores a stream option, too), so that’s not ideal for Duda’s outlook. However, the cons are outweighed by the pros. The Mets are at home for all six games this week, and Citi Field has left-handed batter park factors of 109 for homers and 102 for runs, per StatCorner’s rolling three-year average. Also, the three right-handed pitchers he’ll face all struggle with left-handed batters. Last year, Julio Teheran surrendered a .325 wOBA to lefties, Bartolo Colon ceded a .335 wOBA, and Edinson Volquez coughed up a .346 wOBA.
Chasing Steals
Many of the suggested options in this section on a weekly basis will be widely available. However, the suggestions will also occasionally feature fringe starters, thus, providing useful information to gamers in weekly lineup change leagues who are on the fence about starting said fringe starting option.
Atlanta’s catching duo of Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are among the easiest to run on in the league, basically making it a moot point as to who starts each of the first three games of the year against the Mets. Either will make for a great target to stream steals against. Since 2014, Suzuki has allowed the second most steals (318 in 525 starts at catcher) among all catchers, and Flowers has allowed the 15th most (255 in 413 starts at catcher). In addition to allowing lots of steals, both allow a high percentage of successful attempts with Suzuki allowing a 79.3% success rate since 2014, and Flowers surrendering a 76.8% success rate. The Mets duck R.A. Dickey, which is great since he’s tough as nails on baserunners who attempt to steal against him.
J.T. Realmuto does a solid job of cutting down would-be base-stealers, but Edinson Volquez has allowed 34 stolen bases in 67 starts the last two years — 12th most among all pitchers in that two-year stretch. Reyes swiped nine bases in 11 attempts in 60 games and 279 plate appearances with the Mets last year. The Mets have ranked 29th in stolen base attempts the last two years, but it appears manager Terry Collins had some faith in Reyes running. He’s not the electric base stealer he once was, but things shape up nicely for him getting on the stolen base board right away this year.
Let’s start with the bad. The last three games of the week against the Red Sox don’t lend themselves to stolen base chances for Iglesias. Sandy Leon and Christian Vasquez possess elite skills for controlling the running game. The good news is that the first three games of the week against the White Sox are promising. Omar Narvaez sits atop the depth chart at catcher for the Pale Hose, and in 30 starts at catcher for them in 2016, he allowed 23 stolen bases in 25 attempts. Lefties Jose Quintana and Derek Holland are tough to run on, but their handedness increases the odds of Iglesias reaching base (.316 OBP versus righties in his career compared to .345 versus lefties) against a catcher who has no answer for players attempting to steal on him. The righty he does face in that three-game series, James Shields, allowed a .357 OBP to right-handed batters last year and isn’t great at shutting down a running game. The righty has allowed 33 stolen bases in 66 starts since 2015, tied for the 13th most among all pitchers in that two-year stretch. Iglesias is not a great base stealer, but he stole seven in 11 attempts last year, and he swiped 11 in 19 attempts in 2015. In leagues with weekly lineups, I’d pass on Iglesias, but he’s a fine play for the first three games of the year in larger leagues allowing daily lineup changes. Teammates JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook have a chance to swipe bags against the White Sox, too, if either — or both — are in the lineup filling the void left by injured J.D. Martinez.
Phillips’ legs appeared to be abandoning him in 2014. He stole only two bases in five attempts playing in 121 games. He’s since stolen 37 bases in 48 attempts the last two years combined (289 games). The new second baseman for the Braves draws the Mets and Pirates to start the year, two stolen-base friendly matchups. Noah Syndergaard isn’t a pitcher I go out of my way to use hitters against, but he allowed the most stolen bases (48) among pitchers last year by a wide margin of 18. He’ll also see Gerrit Cole, who’s allowed the eighth most steals (64) over the last three seasons. The catchers he’ll be facing are dreamy for swiping a bag against, too. Travis d’Arnaud allowed 61 steals in 78 attempts in 70 starts last year, and Francisco Cervelli has allowed the most steals (168 in 213 attempts) the last two years combined.
Brett Gardner (NYY) / Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY)
In large leagues starting five outfielders, these two will be in lineups almost all the time. In shallower leagues or formats starting only three outfielders, that’s not necessarily the case. With that in mind, this is a good week to use both. Speed is the primary reason for rostering these two, and they’ll open the year facing new catcher for Tampa Bay, Derek Norris. Norris allowed the most stolen bases (76 in 96 attempts) among catchers last year, and he’s allowed the second most (160 in 224 attempts) over the last two years combined. Next up is the Orioles. Welington Castillo isn’t the easiest guy to run on, but that’s offset in one of the games by the presence of Ubaldo Jimenez on the bump. Jimenez allowed more than a steal per start last year with 26 stolen bases allowed in 25 starts. He’s tied for the fourth most stolen bases (67) allowed over the last three years combined. All in all, things shape up nicely for Gardner and Ellsbury in the season’s opening week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50
