Fantasy baseball players are used to change. Guys change lineup spots, pitchers move in and out of the rotation, platoons evaporate, etc. A change to ballpark factors, though? That’s a relatively new one gamers are in for this year. The Diamondbacks are on the verge of utilizing a humidor at Chase Field to help quiet the bonkers offensive numbers there. Alan Nathan analyzed the impact for The Hardball Times, and Andrew Perpetua did so for RotoGraphs. Both of these articles are must reads. I’m not advocating owners of Arizona’s hitters selling those players at a fraction of their current value. I am, however, suggesting doing your research and due diligence leveraging this information to your advantage. If you’re in need of pitching help, that could mean kicking the tires on acquiring Robbie Ray at his present value — especially if you suspect Ray’s owner isn’t aware of the humidor. Now, let’s move on to the outlook for this week.
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Matchup Notes for Hitters
Favorable
Pirates @ Reds (4), vs. Brewers (3)
The Pirates open the week with four games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Left-handed batters get a 24% bump to homers and 7% uptick to run scoring while right-handed batters get an 8% bump in homers and just a 3% hit to run scoring, per the 3-year rolling averages at StatCorner. In addition to the ballpark factor boost, the Buccos’ bats can lick their chops in anticipation of battering Cincinnati’s bad rotation. The Reds have the fourth highest team ERA (4.57) as of Thursday, according to FanGraphs. They cap the week with three games at home against a trio of non-threatening probable starting pitchers.
Reds vs. Pirates (4), vs. Giants (3)
The Reds are at home and play seven games this week. The pitching matchups aren’t great, but the Runnin’ Red Legs have massive stolen-base upside this week. The Reds are tied for the fourth most stolen-base attempts (25) this year, and Francisco Cervelli’s 20 stolen bases allowed in 23 chances is five more than the next highest total allowed by a catcher this year.
Unfavorable
Brewers @ Cardinals (4), @ Pirates (3)
No home cooking this week for the Beer Makers. Miller Park is one of the most homer-friendly venues in MLB, and the same can’t be said about Busch Stadium and PNC Park.
Padres vs. Rockies (3), vs. Dodgers (3)
The Padres play six games this week, and all six are at their pitcher-friendly home park. They also draw three lefties, one of which is Clayton Kershaw. Yuck. The Padres rank tied for 25th in wRC+ (76) against lefties this year, according to FanGraphs, and outside of Hunter Renfroe’s tiny sample against lefties, the rest of the active roster has a track record of mediocrity or wretchedness against southpaws.
Pitcher Notes
Hill’s blister problems and general struggles staying healthy throughout his career are no secret. Gamers who drafted Hill likely weren’t banking on 200 innings, but they also weren’t banking on him being sidelined this quickly. Making matters worse — and his reason for inclusion in this week’s pitcher notes — is that he could be returning in a relief role. Yikes. Serving as a long reliever would be potentially crippling to Hill’s fantasy value. It’s unlikely he has a trade market worth exploring. Gamers in larger leagues should probably wait this out and see how things shake out, but those in shallower leagues can be excused for ridding themselves of this headache.
The sophomore lefty was one of my favorite breakout players for this year. In fairness, his breakout actually occurred after just a few starts last year, but I had him pegged as a fringe top-25 arm. There has been some good and bad in his work this year, but his owners were dealt a scare on Wednesday night when the lefty’s velocity dropped. He was removed after just two innings. The initial diagnosis is shoulder tightness, but there should be more clarity on his outlook in the near future (perhaps today).
Playing Platoons
Alonso is a player I’m completely enamored with. I wrote about him for RotoGraphs today, too, and I think he’s ownable in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers using a corner infield and utility spot. Check out that piece for a more in-depth look at him, but here’s the short of it. The left-handed hitting first baseman has made a conscious effort to change his approach. He discussed his mechanical changes and mind-set change with Eno Sarris in the spring, and the result is more fly balls and damage. The 30-year-old smacked four homers in his first 62 plate appearances with a .286 ISO, 51.2% FB%, and 44.2% hard-hit ball (Hard%) rate (32.3% last year). He holds the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Jordan Zimmermann, and Justin Verlander next week. The lowest ERA in 2017 among that quartet is Hughes’ 4.71. Check out these giving numbers to left-handed batters sported by the four righties Alonso draws this week. It’s possible Alonso could play against the two lefties the A’s face, Hector Santiago and Daniel Norris, too. Alonso’s results aren’t impressive against lefties out of the chute, but he’s been a pinch above average and is both lifting the ball at a high rate (66.7% FB%) and hitting it extremely hard (55.6% Hard%). Scoop up Alonso for his matchups with the righties, but don’t dismiss the idea of using him against lefties if he’s playing.
The Red Sox play six games next week, and half will be against left-handed pitchers. The week starts with Wade Miley and concludes with the weekend duo of Adalberto Mejia and Hector Santiago. Miley and Santiago are off to good starts, but their track records suggest they’re pitching over their heads. Since 2014, Young owns a .369 OBP, .211 ISO, and he’s tied to a high-powered offense.
Chasing Steals
Peraza is highly owned across fantasy baseball sites, but his slow start (.227/.261/.261 with zero homers, though, power isn’t a big part of his game) might have gamers contemplating benching him. Don’t do that this week. He’s swiped six bags, and as I noted above in Cincinnati’s write-up in the favorable section of the hitter notes, facing the Pirates and Cervelli is a boon for stolen-base potential.
This feels like the pick-on-Cervelli section. Well, this week it kind of is. On April 14th, Perez was hitting .115/.148/.154 with a 3.7% BB%, and 25.9% K% in 27 plate appearances. The 2016-surprise performer was doing little to validate his breakout. The utility fielder has flipped the switch on of late. Since April 15th, he’s hit .417/.500/1.042 in 30 plate appearances with a 16.7% BB%, and 10.0% K%. I’ve parsed an already small sample into two smaller ones, but his recent play could get him some extra playing time. Since speed is a big part of his game (34 stolen bases last year), manager Craig Counsell could astutely plug him in to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s struggles controlling the running game. Even if Perez is merely used as a pinch-runner at times in the Pittsburgh series, he presents stolen-base potential.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
