Nick Pollack from Pitcher List here for a weekly segment at FantasyPros where I’ll be looking at the deeper options available in your leagues, highlighting my 10 favorite pitchers each week that could quickly return value despite hanging out on your waiver wire. We’ve set the threshold to under 15% owned according to ESPN, leaving a vast majority of leagues to take advantage of these arms that will cost you nothing and possibly return plenty.
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10. Brett Anderson (CHC): 13.1% owned
It didn’t go this week, but if there weren’t any risk with Anderson, then he wouldn’t be so un-owned in leagues. If you’re on a team that is struggling to compete in Wins week-to-week, Anderson could be your answer as he’s one of the better gambles you can make. His heavy groundball rates (50%+ rate every step of his career) work well with the incredible Chicago defense, giving him a shot to let the sturdy Cubs offense carry him to a Win despite a low strikeout total and mediocre ERA/WHIP numbers.
9. Zach Davies (MIL): 14.3% owned
Is Davies getting back on the right track? His last two starts combined for 10 IP, 2 ER, and 9 strikeouts, though his success came with a 4.89 xFIP and over 40% of hard contact. This is definitely a gamble, but after a respectable sub 4.00 ERA season in 2016, Davies may be the best roll of the dice you have available.
8. Blake Snell (TBR): 14.1% owned
There are clear struggles so far with Snell as he holds a horrendous 6.15 BB/9 that has to drop with more time on the hill and an identical 6.15 K/9 that should rise closer to his 9.91 mark in 2016. I don’t expect Snell to recover quickly – there’s an obvious command issue that needs to be ironed out – but if you’re chasing high upside for June and beyond, it’s possible Snell makes an adjustment and brings No. 5 SP upside.
7. Jose Berrios (MIN): 5.4% owned
Speaking of upside, there’s a possibility Jose Berrios makes his 2017 debut over the weekend as the Minnesota Twins need a starter after Adalberto Mejia was optioned to the minors. While it’s not expected that he sees action this early, as the Twins want him to force his way to the majors for good, he carried undeniable upside. It’s tough to expect much from Berrios after his horrid 2016 campaign (8.02 ERA, 5.40 BB/9, 1.87 WHIP), but he currently holds a 1.09 ERA and 35 strikeouts through five starts in the minors in April. If and when he gets the call, a flier is well in order.
6. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 10.0% owned
It wasn’t the prettiest outing against the Orioles over the weekend, nor do I expect it to get much better with the Cubs on Friday. However, it would be remiss to overlook Montgomery in deep leagues as he can be a sturdy sub 4.00 ERA arm through the year for a winning ball club. There’s strikeout potential here as well – 28.3% whiff rate on his Slider thus far – and while he may warrant the bench against Chicago, this could be a satisfying arm for weeks on end.
5. Joe Musgrove (HOU): 9.3% owned
I hinted last week that Musgrove may be turning a corner and he responded with his best outing of the season: 6.1 IP, 5 Hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks against the Athletics. Sure, pitching against Oakland does dampen the conviction, but a future schedule consisting of the weak Rangers, Braves, and Marlins can create all the confidence you need in a hurry.
4. Daniel Norris (DET): 12.0% owned
Through Norris’ struggles in April, he continued to get whiffs across his pitches and they came to fruition with an eight-strikeout outing against the Indians on Monday. It was only the second outing under 3 ER this season, though, and it’s tough to bank on him producing consistently forward. Neverthless, I’d be taking my chances against the future schedule of the Athletics and Angels.
3. Charlie Morton (HOU): 8.0% owned
There’s plenty of strikeout upside on our list today, and Morton continues the trend after fanning 12 Athletics over the weekend. There are plenty of concerns about his longevity, but given that you’re chasing a waiver wire player, you might as well throw him out there while he’s healthy, especially if his Ks come with a 3.38 xFIP, 2.57 BB/9, and near 50% groundball rate. There’s definitely risk with his 42.7% hard contact rate, though some warts are expected with such a discount.
2. Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): 14.5% owned
Folty earned nine strikeouts in his start against Philadelphia, then fanned six through his first seven batters against the Brewers. If it weren’t for a pair of longballs from Domingo Santana, it could have been yet another stellar outing for the Braves’ flamethrower. His ownage rate is climbing fast and this may be the final time he’s on this list for the rest of the season.
1. J.C. Ramirez (LAA): 6.9% owned
When was the last time you saw a pitcher strikeout 25 batters in three games and still have a sub 10% ownage rate? Ramirez may have trouble commanding his Fastball, which will lead to some struggles down the line, but his Slider will propel those strikeout numbers consistently through the starts and his Curveball is a suitable third option to maintain outs multiple times through the order. Don’t hesitate because you don’t know his name and ride Ramirez until there is a sure sign of slowing down.
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Nick Pollack is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, find his work at PitcherList.com and follow him @ThePitcherList.
