While some numbers are beginning to stabilize in the baseball world, we’re far from things being considered “normal”. The truth is, as much as Aaron Judge or Eric Thames owners want their studs to keep up the pace, reality is bound to set in. It’s not that they won’t be productive players, but their current numbers aren’t sustainable. At the same time, with a .222 BABIP, don’t expect Anthony Rizzo to continue batting .234.
Whether it’s on the pitching or hitting side of things, regression is normal. At the same time, impatience among fantasy owners is also common, so the possibility of getting a deal is still very much in play. We’ve asked our featured pundits below to name which players on both sides of the ball you should target as buy-low/sell-high candidates.
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Q1. With one month complete, which hitter and pitcher are you targeting as a buy low target and why?
Carlos Santana (1B/DH – CLE) | John Lackey (SP – CHC)
“Following last season’s long-awaited breakout, Carlos Santana is hitting .216/.320/.342 with two home runs, but don’t assume he’s regressing to pre-2016 norms. Even if he doesn’t top 30 long balls again, his average should rise as long as he keeps drawing more walks (17) than strikeouts (13) with an 89.0 contact percentage and 4.2 swinging-strike rate. On the pitching side, target another unexciting veteran in John Lackey. Despite registering 36 strikeouts, nine walks, and a 47.2 ground-ball rate in six starts, he sports a 5.14 ERA inflated by eight home runs. That pace shouldn’t continue for a steady starter who has yielded no more than 26 homers in each of the last 12 seasons. He’s a workhorse who can pile up the strikeouts with an elite Chicago Cubs offense and defense supporting his cause, so see if Lackey’s owner has lost interest in the underrated veteran.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)
Gregory Polanco (LF/RF – PIT) | Rick Porcello (SP – BOS)
“Polanco has been bad this year. There’s no other way to put it. He battled a shoulder issue through Spring Training and was never able to get into a rhythm. Mechanically, he’s looked off. He’s pounding the ball into the ground more than ever before, and getting softer contact. That said, it’s been one month. Polanco bats cleanup, has two years of being a quality fantasy asset under his belt, and he’s just starting to hit his prime. Rick Porcello is not a top tier pitcher and you shouldn’t have to pay a top tier price to get him. Two bad games are skewing his ERA, as they tend to do in early May. His last three games have been very good, and with the Red Sox, the wins will start rolling in any day now.”
– Tim Young (Brewer Rat)
Carlos Gonzalez (RF – COL) | Zack Wheeler (SP – NYM)
“Wheeler is a pitcher you can get for pennies on the dollar right now and it’s beneficial for you to try. His 4.78 ERA looks ugly, but he’s striking out almost a batter per inning. His FIP and xFIP are a full run lower than his ERA and he’s fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery. As far as a buy low hitter is concerned, Carlos Gonzalez’s hard hit rate is currently 3% below his career mark, but I expect it to normalize (playing in Coors Field will help, too). I recently acquired him for Brandon Kintzler in one of my leagues which I think is a steal.”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)
Jonathan Villar (2B/3B/SS – MIL) | Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF)
“I’m always fishing around the rosters in my league and turning over every rock to see if there is a value to be had. I’ve got some great buy-low prices on Mookie Betts in two leagues but my top target is Jonathan Villar. Now, I haven’t dealt for Villar because I drafted him in nearly every league, but his price is unbelievably low. Sure, he had question marks coming into the season and is batting .202/.264/.336 with just 5 stolen bases, but there is no way that persists. You don’t just go from a top five fantasy player to a complete bum in your age 26 season. Buy him with confidence expecting 15 HR, 50 SB and a .265 batting average. The pitcher I am buying low on is Jeff Samardzija. From an 0-4 record to the 7th best xFIP in baseball, he has all the ingredients to turn his season around quickly.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Q2. Which hitter and pitcher are you trying to sell high?
Miguel Sano (3B/RF/DH – MIN) | Dylan Bundy (SP/RP – BAL)
“As someone who targeted Sano on draft day, I’d still sell high after his hot start. He can’t possibly keep hitting .300 with a 35.1 strikeout percentage and .442 BABIP, so see if someone values him as a top-tier slugger despite an inevitable slump. The Dylan Bundy bandwagon reached full capacity after his dominant first-week start, and most followers probably remain on board given the young righty’s 1.82 ERA. That excitement may hide his diminished velocity and 5.67 K/9 through six starts. The former Tommy John recipient, who has never worked a full major league season in the rotation, will likely get handled carefully this summer, so cash out now if he fetches a solid return.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)
Mark Reynolds (1B – COL) | Robbie Ray (SP – ARI)
“I have strong doubts that at 33, going on 34, Mark Reynolds finally figured it out. His power playing in Coors is a thing to behold, but being fun to watch does not equate to being fun to own. In his 10 year career, Reynolds has never once hit for a .285 average over a full season. He’s only maintained a batting average above .240 a total of three times. Reynolds isn’t a terrible option to have but this is likely your only chance to get anything in return for him. As for a pitcher, I like Robbie Ray. His K Rate is coveted, and his pitch variety is magnificent. His walks, however, are unpropitious. He’s a solid young pitcher, but he won’t become an ace until he can get his control under… control. There are enough people salivating over his Ks that you should have no problem finding a taker willing to give up big pieces for Ray.”
– Tim Young (Brewer Rat)
Eric Thames (1B/OF – MIL) | Jason Vargas (SP – KC)
“If you think Jason Vargas has all of a sudden turned into a Cy Young candidate at age 34, then by all means, hold him. I’m incredibly skeptical, however, as his velocity has not increased and he’s holding an unsustainable 84.5% strand rate. His career K rate is under six batters per nine innings, which suggests his current 8.24 mark will regress as well. For hitters, I’m still OK with selling high on Eric Thames. There is tangible evidence that he’s learned how to hit the breaking ball (which would cut down his K%), but his .485 wOBA and .417 ISO are unsustainable. ZiPS is still predicting almost a 28% K rate for the rest of the season which will dip Thames’ rates considerable. Go out and get a proven frontline player while Thames’ value is sky high.”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)
Aaron Judge (RF – NYY) | Dallas Keuchel (SP – HOU)
“Dallas Keuchel is the perfect combination of what you should be looking for in a sell-high player. He has a recent Cy Young to his name, a sparkling ERA, an unblemished 5-0 record and underlying stats that suggest it could all come crumbling down. Keuchel is leading the MLB in pitches thrown outside the strike zone and has an entirely unsustainable LOB rate of 98.7. In case you needed more, he is tossing 88 MPH fastballs and striking out just 7 batters per 9 innings pitched. The hitter I’m selling high on is Aaron Judge. Everyone expects him to take a step backward but I expect him to come miserably crashing back to earth because there are so many holes in his swing and he has never produced anywhere near this at any level tracing back to even college.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
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Thank you to the experts for naming their buy-low/sell-high players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and for more advice, listen to our latest podcast below.
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