Greetings, fantasy fiends, and welcome to the quarter-way mark of the fantasy baseball campaign! It’s not too late to salvage your season — or too early to bury your opponents once and for all. Hopefully, the answers to these burning questions can help point you in the right direction.
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Just how good is Michael Conforto?
In an otherwise frustrating season for the New York Metropolitans, Conforto has been a revelation. He wasn’t even drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues because there wasn’t a clear path to playing time, which should only serve as a reminder to always bet on talent in these kind of situations. It goes without saying that Conforto should be in every fantasy lineup regardless of league size, but fantasy managers still need to know what they can expect from him the rest of the year. His .370 BABIP and 34.2 percent HR/FB rate are both among the highest in the league, but that’s really just a fancy way of saying that he won’t maintain his current pace of a .333 batting average and 50+ home runs. In other words, Conforto can experience quite a bit of regression and still be one of the best fantasy hitters around. He currently ranks top-10 in the league in hard-hit rate, and his 23.4 percent line drive rate and 13.1 percent walk rate are both quite good as well. Conforto really struggled against left-handed pitchers last year, but he has more than held his own against them this year, and the Mets simply can’t afford to sit him against southpaws anyway. He does strike out a fair amount, so he may not be a true .300 hitter, but this is a highly-touted 24-year-old slugger who has 34 homers in his first 607 at-bats in the big leagues. Believe in the breakout.
Is Corey Dickerson proving he doesn’t need Coors?
When Dickerson was dealt from the Rockies to the Rays prior to the 2016 season, it was logical to conclude his numbers would take a big hit away from the hitter paradise of Coors Field. And that’s exactly what happened last year, but it’s been a completely different story in 2017. Dickerson, who’s hitting .337 with 12 home runs, is currently putting up a top-25 fantasy season, ahead of household names like Jose Altuve and Kris Bryant. But will it last? Dickerson’s hard hit rate is back up to the level it was when he played for the Rockies, but his low line drive rate looks a lot more like it did with the Rays in 2016, and his 87 mph average exit velocity is far from impressive. His .390 BABIP and 23.5 percent HR/FB ratio are both considerably higher than he managed even while playing in Colorado, so it’s unlikely Dickerson is capable of hitting .300 or topping 30 home runs. Perhaps most concerning of all, he is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than anyone else in baseball. Dickerson is better than his 2016 numbers suggest, but once regression sets in he’s probably a .270/25 guy who doesn’t run.
Is Edwin Diaz still a top-tier fantasy reliever?
A rough start for Diaz’s fantasy owners got rougher on May 17 when he was removed from the closer role in Seattle. Mariners manager Scott Servais decided the move was necessary after Diaz walked four batters in just a third of an inning on May 15 against the A’s. That outing pushed Diaz’s walk rate to almost six walks per nine innings, but we’re talking about a very small sample size here. Servais noted that the demotion was not permanent and that Diaz had an issue with his mechanics that would be best addressed by pitching in a few low-leverage situations. After Diaz responded with two scoreless innings on May 21, Servais seemed to indicate he was only one more good appearance away from regaining the closer job. Bottom line, this is a pitcher with elite bat-missing skills and little competition for the job, which means he has all the makings of a top-10 closer going forward. It may already be too late to buy low, but if anyone in your league is scared off by Diaz’s walks or job security, he’s well worth acquiring for a closer who’s been better in the early going, such as Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson, Jim Johnson, or Bud Norris.
What’s wrong with Julio Teheran?
After two excellent seasons in 2013-2014 and a very poor one in 2015, Teheran reemerged as a valuable fantasy starter last year with a 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and eight strikeouts per nine innings. Now, he’s a mess again. His BABIP is up a bit and his left-on-base percentage is down a bit, but the real culprits in his struggles are a career-low strikeout rate and career-high walk rate. Teheran was never a big strikeout pitcher to begin with, so he can’t afford to miss fewer bats and issue more free passes. There’s not much in Teheran’s velocity or pitch usage data to suggest he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he used to be, but his calling card was reliability and now that’s out the window. Given his lack of Ks and subpar win potential (particularly following the Freddie Freeman injury), owners in 12-team mixed leagues shouldn’t feel compelled to hold onto him as he works through his control issues.
Is Avisail Garcia for real?
If Dickerson has been a bit of a surprise, Garcia has been much more of one. The once-highly regarded prospect has done little over the past three seasons to suggest a breakout was in store. But that’s exactly what’s happened in the first couple months of 2017, as Garcia’s .342 batting average, eight home runs, and 34 RBIs have made him a top-25 hitter in 5×5 roto leagues. There’s no question Garcia should be owned right now, but there’s also no question that some significant regression is coming. Garcia’s .392 BABIP jumps off the page as one of the 10-highest in baseball, while his 32.8 percent hard contact rate is not noticeably different than his career average. His strikeout rate is down this year to 19.2 percent, which is promising, but he’s still chasing a ton of pitches outside of the strike zone and his walk rate is very low at 4.6 percent. He also remains a predominantly groundball hitter, which could help him maintain some batting average but makes his current power pace unsustainable. It’s probably tough to sell-high on Garcia in most leagues, so fantasy owners should enjoy his hot streak while it lasts — just don’t count on him being worthy of using in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues all season long.
Who is Dinelson Lamet, and should I add him?
The Padres have announced that they are calling up Lamet to make his big league debut against the Mets on May 25, thereby adding another great name to the baseball lexicon. Lamet’s minor league numbers reveal a guy who’s been good in Triple-A but hasn’t exactly dominated (3.23 ERA/1.33 WHIP). Lamet strikes a lot of batters out (11.54 K/9), but he walks a lot, too (4.62 BB/9). Petco Park isn’t quite the dead ball-era venue it once was, but it is playing as a pitcher-friendly park again this year, so there is some appeal here if Lamet can prove his worth and stick around in the Majors. For now, he’s more of a deep-league add, particularly in leagues where you won’t be hurt by a high WHIP. And if you’re thinking of streaming him for his first start, just realize that the Mets are actually one of the highest-scoring teams in baseball so far (see section above on Mr. Conforto).
What’s gotten into Brett Gardner?
Most fantasy managers own Gardner for his speed, so the power display he’s put on thus far has to be a pleasant surprise. It took Gardner just 31 games to match the seven home runs he hit in 148 games last year, and he’s now up to nine homers through 39 games. The secret to his success is that he’s hitting the ball harder, pulling it more, and hitting fewer balls on the ground. Even so, his 23.7 percent HR/FB rate is more than double his previous career high and clearly unsustainable. And although his .311 BABIP is right in line with his career average, his .281 batting average is actually a bit inflated by the big home run total. Expect Gardner to settle in as a slightly-improved version of his 2015 self, when he hit .259 with 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Given his hot start, that gives him a pretty good shot at the first 20-20 season of his 10-year major league career.
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Andrew Seifter is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
