We’re at a point in the season when early struggles can cause fantasy owners to panic, and surprise hot starts begin to appear real. The question is discerning when to believe these early season trends, and when to dismiss them as small sample sizes that will even out in the long run. Let’s check in on four guys who have, for one reason or another, performed differently than expected, and what we can expect moving forward.
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Jose Bautista had a .554 OPS in April but has a 1.159 OPS in May
Much was made of Bautista’s early season struggles, and many wondered whether this was the beginning of the end, including yours truly. Well, since that time Bautista has proven that not only is he far from done, but he’s still a force to be reckoned with.
If we compare his April and May, you can pretty much pick your favorite stat, and Bautista has drastically improved. After hitting just one home run in April, he’s hit seven in May. His batting line looked like .178/.309/.244 before the calendar turned, and since then he’s hit .313/.421/.638, shaking out to the .554 to 1.159 OPS discrepancy in the header.
Much of this can be attributed to improvements in strikeout rate (27.3% to 22.1%), and hard-hit rate (27.4% to 37.3%). Taking it one step further, his average exit velocity on balls hit in the air has jumped from 92.1 mph to 95.7 mph. Any way you slice it, Bautista is back with a vengeance.
What does this mean for his value moving forward? Well, despite his positive strides, his strikeout rate and contact rate still aren’t as good as last year, but otherwise, his numbers are beginning to resemble the man fantasy owners likely expected when they drafted him — a modest batting average, but 30-plus home run power.
His torrid May pace has to end eventually, but owners can still breathe a sigh of relief. It appears Bautista will provide plenty of bat flip opportunities the rest of the season.
Masahiro Tanaka is struggling with a 6.56 ERA but has a 24.5% HR/FB rate
Considered arguably one of the safer floor picks going into the season, if you nabbed Tanaka this offseason, you’re probably lamenting your decision. The Tanaka ship has been anything but steady and following two particularly brutal starts, he has an ugly 6.56 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, with just a 17.8% strikeout rate. Much of his issues have come from the home run ball, having given up 13, already more than halfway to the 22 he gave up all of last season!
But before you pitch yourself overboard, take solace in the fact that calmer waters can be seen ahead. Despite all the horrors above, Tanaka’s 24.5% HR/FB rate is a stark outlier, showing that he’s badly due for some positive regression in the long ball department. No doubt, he’s always had issues with homers, with a below-average 15.2% career HR/FB rate, but that’s still a far cry from the pace he’s on now.
Another good sign is he has a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, which is top 10 among qualified starters, and higher than Clayton Kershaw’s. With that kind of ability going for him, he will almost certainly improve his below-average punchouts. Lastly, a .329 BABIP is well above his career average (.276), amounting to yet another positive regression spot.
It’s been a rough ride so far, but it sure looks like Tanaka has had a boatload of bad luck so far. Of course, it’s not like he’s necessarily been pitching lights out either — his SIERA is a modest 4.33 — but he also shouldn’t have an ERA nearly as high as Bronson Arroyo’s.
You can hardly be blamed if you’re thinking about benching Tanaka, but Thursday’s matchup against the light-hitting Kansas City Royals could be exactly what he needs to start turning things around. Better days are ahead for the Yankees hurler.
After hitting 40 home runs in 2016, Todd Frazier only has five this year
Unlike Bautista, Frazier hasn’t shown any signs of a miraculous turnaround so far. He’s batting just .192/.301/.362 with five home runs, well off his 40 home run pace of last year.
He’s actually striking out less often (20.3% rate) and walking more (13.1%), so if anything you would expect he would be getting on base at a higher clip. Of course, as is often the case in these situations, his BABIP is an absurdly low .208, so maybe it’s only a matter of time before he gets his average above the Mendoza Line.
Still, you drafted Frazier for power, not his batting average. He’s hitting the usual amount of fly balls, but the hard-hit rate is down (28.7%), as is the HR/FB rate (10.6%).
He has a career 15.4% HR/FB rate, so similar to Bautista’s situation, one figures this ought to turn around in Frazier’s favor at some point. If the hard-hit rate improves, it stands to reason that the dingers should follow.
Given Frazier’s improved plate discipline, in the long run, he shouldn’t be the detriment in batting average he was last year (.225), and at the very least could reach the .255 mark he hit in 2015. He’s also still getting his requisite handful of stolen bases (three), so double-digit swiped bags ought to be a “gimme.”
Really, despite the early pedestrian results, if the power returns as expected, he should be in for a fine season. Frazier might be disappointing for the moment, but having some patience could pay off eventually.
Mike Leake leads the NL with a 1.91 ERA
Say hello to your surprise NL leader in ERA! That’s correct, Leake of all people leads all qualified NL starters in ERA. That’s better than Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke…everyone.
Okay, it’s safe to say that you and I both know this cannot and will not last. Leake has his share of skills, as he keeps the ball the ground (54.3% rate), and doesn’t walk many guys (4.2%). However, he’s never been known to strike many out, and this year is no exception (17.7%).
It shouldn’t shock you that his ERA is the result of a trifecta of luck stats — a .236 BABIP, 8.5% HR/FB rate, and 85.6% strand rate. All three are nowhere close to his career averages, and regression is undoubtedly lurking.
But if you’re a Leake owner, it’s good to see him bouncing back following a down season in which his ERA ballooned to a career-worst 4.69. A sub-2.00 ERA won’t last forever, but a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA looks doable, as his SIERA suggests (3.76).
Maybe that’s less exciting, but considering he was either a late pick or undrafted in most leagues, Leake’s hot start alone has been worth the price of admission. He should maintain value in deep leagues, but don’t hang on too long in standard leagues when regression inevitably comes for him.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
