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Danny Woodhead is an Ideal Late-Round Pick (Fantasy Football)

Danny Woodhead is an Ideal Late-Round Pick (Fantasy Football)

In one of the first moves of the 2017 NFL offseason, the Baltimore Ravens signed veteran running back Danny Woodhead, formerly of the Chargers, to a three-year deal. This signing came two months after Ravens head coach John Harbaugh stated (via ESPN), “We need another back,” and, “We have a pretty good idea of the type of back we want to add.” Woodhead, one of the NFL’s premier pass-catching RBs, should be able to make a splash in the Ravens’ offense, which targeted the RB position 142 times in 2016.

Woodhead suffered an ACL tear in Week 2 last year, which sidelined him for the rest of the season. Per a May 24th report, Woodhead is already practicing with his new team with “no restrictions.” Given the expedient nature with which the Ravens signed Woodhead this offseason and his apparent rate of recovery, it seems that the team has full faith in Woodhead’s ability to produce right away come September.

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Woodhead’s primary fantasy value has come from his skill as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. In past PPR seasons, Woodhead has consistently been a top-finisher. For PPR leagues this coming season, team owners should be targeting Woodhead, as the Ravens attempted more passes than any other team in 2016. The Ravens parted ways with FB Kyle Juszczyk, who logged 37 receptions on 49 targets last season to complement the 64 receptions on 86 targets fellow RBs Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West finished the season with. Whereas Dixon and West have similar profiles and are expected to continue splitting the early-down work, Woodhead’s role as the primary receiving back is relatively secure.

Being QB Joe Flacco’s primary pass-catching RB sets Woodhead up for a high volume of work. Assuming Woodhead inherits Juszczyk’s share of targets from 2016 and steals at least some of Dixon’s and West’s targets, it is easy to envision him finishing the 2017 season with over 60 receptions. The FantasyPros team currently projects him to record 61.9 receptions, but given the Ravens’ lack of established depth at the WR position, 61.9 could be a modest estimate. Assuming he continues his career average yards-per-catch of 9.4 yards, 61.9 receptions would project Woodhead at 581.86 receiving yards over 16 games.

The Ravens were expected by many to draft a high-profile rookie wide receiver or to sign one of the veterans in the free agent market, but instead opted to sign Woodhead. Woodhead occasionally lined up with the receivers on the Chargers, and with his dynamic skill set and athleticism, he should be able to do the same for the Ravens. The Ravens are expected to lean heavily on veteran Mike Wallace and former first-round draft pick Breshad Perriman, but neither receiver has historically operated out of the slot. Woodhead could be an ideal fit to fill that role, especially after the departures of Steve Smith Sr. and Kamar Aiken.

Woodhead also stands to benefit from the four-game suspension that Kenneth Dixon will be serving to begin the 2017 season. Woodhead’s position on the Ravens’ depth chart should guarantee him a healthy workload for those first four games at the very least, even in non-PPR leagues. The Ravens strength of schedule for RBs in 2017 ranks as the 12th easiest according to the FantasyPros schedule projections, and their first three opponents, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Jacksonville were all bottom-half of the league against the run in 2016.

Things will become murkier when Dixon returns from his suspension. Woodhead will continue to be the primary pass-catching back, but should also see his carries drop as Dixon and West pick up where they left off last season. Owners should be patient when Dixon returns and monitor the snap counts of each of the Ravens RBs. It’s possible that Woodhead is unaffected by Dixon’s return because of the pass-heavy nature of the Ravens’ offense. If Woodhead’s production does plummet, he could always be dropped for your next waiver wire pickup or traded to the Dixon/West owners as a handcuff.

Conclusion

Woodhead looks to be headed for at least 3-to-4 weeks of RB1 to RB2 production in 2017 in all formats just based on opportunity alone. We saw last year how early-season fill-ins like Spencer Ware and DeAngelo Williams could produce at a high level despite their late-round ADPs, and Woodhead represents value in PPR leagues and especially in Standard leagues at his current ADP (pick 64 in PPR and 91 in Standard per FantasyPros.com expert consensus rankings). He should be an ideal late-round pick in Standard leagues to guarantee production in the first few weeks of the season, and he is a perfect complementary RB to pair with suspended (Dixon, Doug Martin) or injured backs coming into September.


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Aidan Mcgrath is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Aidan, check out his archive and follow him @ffaidanmcgrath.

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