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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (5/12)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (5/12)

Tonight’s roster below is of the GPP variety. A few of the players have a chalky feel, but many go against the grain –namely the pitchers — and might even cause some uneasy feelings in the pit of your stomach. As a reminder, it’s all about ceiling, and the upside is substantial with this group. Typically I like to stack in GPPs, but this particular roster features two pairs of teammates and some one-offs, and, thus, no stack.

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Pitcher

Rick Porcello (BOS): $9,700 vs. Rays
Porcello has turned in quality starts in six of seven games this year, but the one game in which he failed to tally a quality start was an implosion against the Rays at home. In that start, he coughed up eight earned runs on eight hits (four homers), and two walks. He gets the Rays again at home tonight, and I’m guessing between his five-figure salary and the blemish against this opponent in the same venue will take a big bite out of his ownership rate. The reigning 2016 American League Cy Young Award winner has bounced back nicely from his hiccup. In his four starts since the Rays ambushed him, he’s spun a 1.69 ERA (3.03 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, and 3.46 SIERA, per FanGraphs) and 1.05 WHIP with a 4.5% BB% and 24.3% K% in 26.2 innings. The Rays rank in the top 10 in wRC+ (109) against righties this season checking in ninth, but they also own the highest strikeout rate (25.9% K%) against righties this year. They’re not slowing down punching out, either. Over the last two weeks, they’ve struck out in 27.0% of their plate appearances. Porcello ranks tied for 28th among qualified pitchers with Stephen Strasburg in swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) at 11.0%, so he has the goods to rack up strikeouts against the strikeout-prone Rays.

Danny Duffy (KC): $8,600 vs. Orioles
Duffy has recorded negative fantasy scoring outputs in two of his last three starts. Both starts were against the White Sox, and he shook them off in his most recent start holding the Indians to only one run in 6.2 innings on six hits and two walks. He did strike out only two batters in that contest, and he’s sporting a thoroughly underwhelming 16.0% K% in seven starts. I’ve previously indicated that I believe the strikeouts will come, and I maintain that belief since Duffy’s 11.5% SwStr% is the 21st highest among qualified starters this year. Tonight seems like as good of night as any for the stars to align and see Duffy’s SwStr% result in a big strikeout game. I’m not merely saying this as an off the cuff remark. The Orioles have struck out in a quarter of their plate appearances against lefties this year, and their 25.0% K% is tied for the fourth highest against left-handed pitchers this year. Dylan Bundy‘s start has been bumped back from Thursday to tonight due to the Orioles and Nationals being rained out, and at $7,500 against one of the worst offenses in baseball, I suspect Bundy will be very chalky. The flipside of Bundy being chalky is that Duffy shouldn’t be. Bundy’s a fine option — as my honorable mention suggests — and spinning down to him from Duffy will result in an extra $1,100 to spend on bats on a slate with a game at Colorado. Again, I get the appeal, and it’s a fine move. This particular roster, though, is being built around the big strikeout upside of Porcello and Duffy.

Honorable Mention

Catcher

Jason Castro (MIN): $3,100 @ Indians
Are you ever curious about whether a player has been lucky or unlucky? One of my favorite sources for trying to answer that question is xstats.org. The site is run by Andrew Perpetua of RotoGraphs, and after looking at Castro’s batted ball data recently, I found myself thinking his .235 BABIP and accompanying .192/.308/.346 slash line were extremely unlucky. Lo and behold, Castro’s xAVG/xOBP/xSLG are .244/.353/.408 with a .318 xBABIP. He has been extremely unlucky! The result is a catcher who’s probably a bit under priced. Adding to Castro’s appeal is that since 2014, he has a solid .179 ISO and passable 97 RC+. Perhaps more importantly, he’ll be treated to absolutely dreamy left-handed batter park factors in Cleveland.

Honorable Mentions

First Base

Yonder Alonso (OAK): $3,800 @ Rangers
Finally, a price bump to Alonso! At under $4,000, his salary still doesn’t line up with his bananas production out of the shoot. Alonso’s new flyball-happy approach has yielded a .418 OBP, .354 ISO, and 202 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. He’s earned a promotion in the lineup and has hit cleanup or third in recent starts against righties, and he’ll take aim at Andrew Cashner in Texas tonight. That’s a double dose of good news. Cashner has been good against lefties, which is against the norm for him, but he’s allowing a 43.2% FB%. Allowing fly balls to Alonso is playing with fire this year, and with Globe Life in Arlington’s left-handed batter park factor of 103 for homers, per StatCorner’s rolling 3-year average, it’s a recipe for Alonso adding to his new season-high in dingers.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Josh Harrison (PIT): $3,800 @ Diamondbacks
Alonso is the player getting the most recognition for hitting the ball in the air more this year, and that’s understandably the case. Checking out a tweet thread involving Eno Sarris discussing Alonso recently, I lucked into an interesting article shared by user @CannonballCrner about Josh Harrison. You can check the tweet thread here and the article about Harrison here. The linked article discussed Harrison’s launch angle this season and a major uptick in fly balls. Last year, Harrison had a 36.3% FB%, and this year, that’s up to 45.8%. The fly balls have been accompanied by a 5% jump in Hard% from 27.7% to 32.7%, and the result has been — you guessed it — more dingers! Harrison has swatted five homers in 130 plate appearances this season. He hit exactly four in each of the last two years, and the four long balls in 2015 came in 449 plate appearances and last year came in 522 plate appearances. Tonight’s venue is perfect for Harrison’s new approach. According to StatCorner, Chase Field has right-handed batter park factors of 122 for doubles/triples, 116 for homers, and 116 for runs. A matchup with Patrick Corbin isn’t too shabby, either. Corbin has allowed a .488 slugging and .358 wOBA to 136 right-handed batters faced this season.

Honorable Mentions

Third Base

Travis Shaw (MIL): $3,900 vs. Mets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re well aware of the Matt Harvey/Mets mess. Harvey and his 5.14 ERA are back on the bump tonight in hitter-friendly Miller Park, and I’ll gladly go after him with Milwaukee’s cleanup hitter, Travis Shaw. The game’s over/under total is nine runs, and it’s pretty close to a pick ’em. Since 2014, Shaw has a .191 ISO against right-handed pitchers.

Honorable Mentions

  • Jake Lamb (ARI): $4,600 vs. Pirates
  • Miguel Sanó (MIN): $4,500 @ Indians

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD): $5,500 @ Rockies
A few Dodgers have appeared in the honorable mentions, but Seager is the only Dodger — and only player at Coors today — to make this roster. Since reaching The Show, he has a .396 OBP, .220 ISO, and 157 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. He’s one of the best hitters in the game and not just one of the best hitters for a shortstop. Opposing starter Tyler Chatwood has allowed a .339 wOBA to left-handed batters at Coors Field since joining the Rockies in 2012.

Honorable Mention

Outfield

A.J. Pollock (ARI): $4,500 vs. Pirates
You didn’t think I’d fail to mention any members of the most aggressive base running team in MLB against the pitcher who’s tied for the most stolen bases allowed (10) this year, did you? No team has more stolen-base attempts than Arizona’s 48. Pollock is responsible for more than a quarter of the team’s attempts with 13 on his own, and he’s been extremely efficient stealing 11 while getting caught just two times. His 11 stolen bases are the third most in the Majors, and in addition to having a great matchup in terms of pitcher to steal on, assuming Francisco Cervelli starts, he’ll face the catcher who’s allowed the most stolen bases (24) this season. No one will be sleeping on Pollock tonight, but his upside is gigantic. Of course, the old adage is you can’t steal first base. Have no worries about Pollock reaching base, my friends. Since 2014, he has a .363 OBP against right-handed pitchers, and this year he’s besting that mark against righties with a .370 OBP.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT): $3,900 @ Diamondbacks
Remember Corbin’s shortcomings against righties and the hitter-friendly park factors for righties at Chase Field I highlighted above in Harrison’s glowing write-up? Of course you do! They apply to Cutch, too. The game’s over/under total of 9.5 runs is actually the highest on a slate that features a game at Coors Field (obviously Clayton Kershaw has a big impact on the total in Colorado), and McCutchen is in a prime position to take part in the fireworks hitting third for the Buccos. Among qualified hitters since 2014, he ranks tied for 18th in OBP (.384), tied for 23rd in ISO (.219), and tied for 17th in wRC+ (145) against lefties.

Matt Joyce (OAK): $3,200 @ Rangers
This is an anti-climatic conclusion to round out the roster. If you pay down someplace else, upgrading from Joyce would be my first move. Having said that, Joyce is the owner of a .344 OBP, .152 ISO, and 106 wRC+ against righties since 2014. He’s bounced around the lineup but has infrequently called first or second home in the A’s lineup. Either lineup spot would be ideal to the alternative of hitting down order, but even as a down order hitter, Joyce is a justifiable piece of salary relief who allows us to get the other key cogs on this roster. Not mentioned in Alonso’s write-up where I made note of Globe Life Park in Arlington’s park factor of 103 for homers for lefties is that lefties also get a 13% boost for run scoring.

Honorable Mentions

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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