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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Saturday (5/27)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Saturday (5/27)

After building GPP lineups the last two nights, tonight, I present a cash games roster. It is anchored by the best pitcher on the staff and the key — chalky — hitters from the game at Coors Field.

A few unexciting punt plays serve as glue guys to help us roster the integral big-ticket items. It’s only a five-game slate, and the lack of many value alternatives to keep the core pricey options together means the honorable mentions will be incredibly slim tonight.

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Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $11,000 vs. Orioles
Keuchel isn’t listed on the MLB.com probables page yet at the time of writing, but multiple other reputable news outlets are reporting he’ll be activated to start tonight’s game (and DraftKings has him listed as the probable starter, too). An activation in time for a home start is perfect, because the southpaw is otherworldly at home. In 28.2 innings this year, he has a 0.94 ERA (2.54 FIP and 2.92 xFIP), 0.73 WHIP, 5.8% BB%, and 23.1% K% at home, per FanGraphs.

Dominating at home is nothing new for Keuchel, either. Since breaking out in 2014, he owns a 2.30 ERA (2.70 FIP and 2.81 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, 5.8% BB%, 22.9% K%, and 64.6% GB% in 328.1 innings pitched at home. He’s been excellent in general this year, but his track record of dominating at home helps justify ponying up for his services.

The Orioles are a slightly above average offense against lefties this year, but they have been shut down in impressive fashion by a few lefties this year, and their 24.0% K% against southpaws is perfect for Keuchel to take advantage of. The floor and ceiling are both very high for Keuchel tonight.

Ty Blach (SF): $6,200 vs. Braves
Blach is a low-ceiling, ballpark based play tonight. He has a paltry 8.2% K%, but he has an impressive 5.9% BB% and limits base runners with a 1.18 WHIP. A .246 BABIP is likely unsustainable, but Blach isn’t the type to beat himself with free passes. The southpaw has pitched exactly seven innings in each of his last three starts (all quality starts) since getting roughed up at Great American Ball Park.

He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of six starts, three earned runs in one, and has the blowup start at GABP on his half-dozen starts resume for 2017 as well. He’s at home tonight, and the run and homer-suppressing nature of AT&T Park should be enough to help Blach reach value on the small salary commitment needed to roster him.

The Giants are -127 favorites, and the game’s over/under total of only eight runs, according to Pinnacle, add to the appeal of using Blach as a high-floor, value SP2. By skimping on SP2, you’ll have the necessary salary cap space to spend up to some of the must-have bats in Colorado.

Catcher

Evan Gattis (HOU): $3,600 vs. Orioles
This roster will have $200 in salary remaining, leaving you just a bit short of reaching up for Yadier Molina or Yasmani Grandal. If a punt at another position emerges or one of the pricey studs gets an unexpected day up, spinning up from Gattis is fine.

Otherwise, Gattis makes for a decent play thanks to his gargantuan pop (.227 ISO versus lefties since 2014) and Wade Miley‘s mediocrity against right-handed batters (.354 OBP and .326 wOBA allowed to them this year). The punt options are dreadful, so if Gattis gets the night off and all of the necessary studs are playing, Francisco Cervelli stands out as a cheaper useful option in a tough matchup thanks to his exquisite patience and Zack Wheeler’s below average control.

Honorable Mentions

  • Yadier Molina (STL): $4,000 @ Rockies
  • Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,900 vs. Cubs
  • Francisco Cervelli (PIT): $3,200 vs. Mets

First Base

Yuli Gurriel (HOU): $3,000 vs. Orioles
Make no bones about it, this is a punt position. The top options are poor investments, thus, spinning all the way down to Gurriel in order to spend heavily elsewhere makes a lot of sense. If Gurriel receives a day off and you’re forced to spend up, I’d still advocate sitting below the $4,000 salary point, the other positions are more important than first base in cash games tonight.

As for Gurriel, his .205 OBP, .066 ISO, and 19 wRC+ in 78 plate appearances against lefties are dreadful. Having said that, his 9.0% K% is strong, and his .191 BABIP is out of whack with his batted-ball profile against lefties. He’s not really this bad at all against lefties, and as I noted in Gattis’ write up, Miley is merely mediocre (and often worse) against right-handed batters.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,700 vs. Cubs
Jose Altuve is a luxury item that’s too expensive for us to afford (though, he makes a great GPP option), and D.J. LeMahieu is a bit out of our reach as well. That leaves us with a fairly unexciting bunch of options hovering just under $4,000. Forsythe’s typical lineup spot atop the order for the Dodgers helped get him the edge over Neil Walker and Joe Panik, so if he’s unexpectedly bumped down in the order, pivoting to either of the other two is in play.

Forsythe has been a merely average hitter against righties since 2014 with a 99 wRC+, .331 OBP, and .122 ISO. His value gets a bump from the aforementioned lineup spot and facing John Lackey. Lackey has surrendered a .331 OBP, .478 slugging, and .345 wOBA to right-handed batters this year.

He’s struggling mightily with the long ball (2.06 HR/9), and that’s helped inflate his ERA to 4.82 (4.94 FIP and 3.83 xFIP). The Dodgers are -120 favorites at home in a game with an over/under total of eight runs, giving them roughly the same implied team over/under total as the Panik and the Giants, and a little higher than the underdog Mets and Neil Walker.

Honorable Mentions

  • Neil Walker (NYM): $3,800 @ Pirates
  • Joe Panik (SF): $3,700 vs. Braves

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,400 vs. Cardinals
It was only a matter of time before I got to one of the must-have, big-ticket items I kept mentioning. Adam Wainwright looks washed this year with a 4.81 ERA that’s higher than his fielding independent marks, but has plenty of alarming underlying statistics that would lead one to believe he’s not just suffering from bad luck. Coors Field isn’t the place to right the ship, and his pitch mix of a four-seam fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, and curveball is especially bad at Coors Field.

He leans heavily on his cutter and curve, throwing the two a combined 48.8% of the time, according to FanGraphs, and as you can see in this piece from Dan Rozenson at Baseball Prospectus, they are two pitches that see a sizable bump in ISO at Coors compared to a neutral park. Arenado is a stud who’s likely to give Waino fits tonight. Since breaking out in 2015, he has a .342 OBP, .304 ISO, and .392 wOBA against right-handed pitchers at Coors Field.

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford (SF): $3,500 vs. Braves
The park factors are the obvious knock against Crawford, but otherwise, he looks like a bargain at his salary. He typically hits fifth for the Giants against righties, which gives him an edge over other similarly priced shortstops. He’s also a slightly above average hitter against righties with a .320 OBP, .178 ISO, and 102 wRC+ against them since 2014.

Perhaps the most appealing aspect of using Crawford is getting left-handed exposure to Mike Foltynewicz. Folty is no stranger to struggles with lefties, and this year he’s coughing up a .389 OBP, .463 slugging, and .372 wOBA to them.

Honorable Mention

Outfield

Carlos Beltran (HOU): $3,300 vs. Orioles
I’ll start off the outfield with the least exciting member of the group. The switch-hitting Beltran is struggling with lefties this year, but he’s only a season removed from a .338 OBP, .252 ISO, and 158 wRC+ against them.

I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Beltran against lefties after a bad 44 plate appearances against them. In the event Gattis gets the night off and you spin down to Cervelli, this is the first place I’d suggest upgrading (Belt stands out as the preferred pivot).

Stephen Piscotty (STL): $4,500 @ Rockies
The roster is closed out with two more integral, cornerstone pieces. Since reaching The Show in 2015, Piscotty has tattooed lefties for a .382 OBP, .217 ISO, and 140 wRC+. Tonight, those numbers should get a lift in Coors Field thanks to these jaw-dropping park factors.

The game features an over/under total of 11 runs with the Rockies serving as small -109 favorites, leaving plenty of run scoring projected for the Red Birds. Piscotty is a steal at his salary.

Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,600 vs. Cardinals
Don’t get sticker shock and spin down from Blackmon. He’s the catalyst atop the lineup for Colorado, and he’s playing at a very high level this year.

He’s already reached the seats 11 times, added four stolen bases, and he also boasts a .453 OBP, .447 ISO, .527 wOBA, and 212 wRC+ in 54 plate appearances against righties at home this year. Expanding the sample size to a bigger and more meaningful number, since 2014, he has a .404 OBP, .220 ISO, .410 wOBA, and 127 wRC+ against righties at Coors Field.

Honorable Mentions

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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