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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (5/23)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (5/23)

It’s Clayton Kershaw day, but would you believe me if I told you there are two pitchers on this slate who have higher strikeout rates than the otherworldly southpaw? You should believe me because it’s true. Not only is it true, but I’m advocating using those two right-handed pitchers together on a pitcher-centric GPP roster. My belief it that the pairing of Kershaw and Dylan Bundy will be quite popular, but at a $100 salary cap savings, you can roster the two dominant righties I’m going to tout pairing. Both pitchers should be fairly popular, but using both together should be unique since most gamers will likely be spinning down to them from Kershaw in the hopes of loading up on bats in Boston or Arizona. Not only will the roster below be fading Kershaw, but it will also be avoiding the aforementioned games in Boston and Arizona. I will not be highlighting honorable mentions at pitcher, but you certainly can run out the more chalky combo of Kershaw and Bundy if you’re playing multiple GPP rosters and are willing to use an honorable mention at another position who can save you $100 worth of salary since this roster uses the entire cap.

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Pitcher

Lance McCullers (HOU): $10,200 vs. Tigers
McCullers is a bat-missing machine with a 27.2% K% that’s tops on this slate and backed by a robust 12.1% swinging strike percentage (SwStr%), according to FanGraphs. He’s not just missing bats, he’s pitching like a total package with a 2.65 ERA (3.07 FIP, 2.69 xFIP, and 2.95 SIERA, per FanGraphs, as well as a 2.26 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 6.8% BB%, and 1.09 WHIP. McCullers actually bests Kershaw in K%, xFIP, SIERA, and DRS this year. The young righty has also demonstrated a notable platoon split favoring pitching at home. In 149.0 innings pitched in Houston, he has a 2.11 ERA (2.92 FIP and 2.83 xFIP), 1.15 WHIP, 8.8% BB%, and 29.8% K%. The Astros are big -203 favorites, according to Pinnacle, and the over/under total of 8.5 runs is non-threatening. His opponent, the Tigers, rank tied for 11th in wRC+ (103) against righties, but they’re a much less formidable foe on the road this year with a 91 wRC+ and highly exploitable 24.1% K%.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE): $9,900 @ Reds
Carrasco has also been lights out this year with a 2.60 ERA (3.23 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA, and 2.08 DRA), 0.88 WHIP, 5.7% BB%, 26.8% K%, and 11.9% SwStr%. He draws the Reds tonight, and they rank 13th in wRC+ (101) against righties this year while striking out at a 20.4% clip. Cincinnati hosts the Indians, but they’re not a lot better at home than they are versus righties in general with a 103 wRC+ in 2017. The Reds have been sputtering a bit of late ranking 21st in wRC+ (93) over the last 14 days. Carrasco carries a bit of risk since he left his last start with pectoral tightness and we’ve yet to see him pitch since, but the upside is glorious, and the Indians are -153 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 8.5 runs, thus, the betting market doesn’t seem to be overly concerned.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,600 vs. Cardinals
Catcher has a tightly priced group of strong options tonight, but Grandal is my favorite of the bunch. He has a better lineup spot than some of the alternatives, a great matchup, and he’s part of a three-player Dodgers stack on this roster. When the Dodgers faced a righty on Sunday, Grandal slotted in as the cleanup hitter. As I mentioned, the matchup is great. Lance Lynn has been ripped for a .393 OBP, .566 slugging, and .408 wRC+ by the 89 lefties he’s faced this year. As for Grandal, he swings a potent stick with a .339 OBP, .221 ISO, and 123 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since 2014. This year, he’s sitting on a .398 OBP, .213 ISO, and 156 wRC+ against righties, and he’s in good form with a .489 OBP, .279 ISO, and 229 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Honorable Mentions

First Base

Yonder Alonso (OAK): $3,900 vs. Marlins
Alonso is dealing with a sore knee, but it’s also probable his lineup absence in the last few games was a product of the A’s facing lefties in three straight contests. Obviously you’ll want to check to make sure he’s in the lineup, but since he hasn’t been placed on the 10-day DL, my money’s on him being back in the lineup tonight. The 30-year-old has reinvented himself this year and is tattooing right-handed pitchers for a .405 OBP, 330 ISO, 178 wRC+, 50.0% FB%, and 35.7% Hard%. Don’t be dissuaded from using Alonso against Jose Urena due to his .193 wOBA allowed to 62 lefties this year. He appears to be a ticking time bomb against them having yielded a 53.2% FB% and 36.2% Hard% without coughing up a homer. The combo of fly balls and hard contact will eventually bite him in the behind, and Alonso’s a man capable of punishing him.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Jed Lowrie (OAK): $3,700 vs. Marlins
Hiding in the shadows of Alonso lifting the ball much more this year and doing so with authority is Lowrie doing the same. The switch-hitting second baseman has belted six homers with a .221 ISO, .358 OBP, 139 wRC+, 49.5% FB%, and 40.4% Hard% against right-handed pitchers in 2017. Go ahead and hook him with Alonso and watch them get to work correcting Urena’s unsustainable wOBA allowed to lefties.

Honorable Mentions

Third Base

Ryan Schimpf (SD): $3,200 @ Mets
Matt Harvey is a shell of his once dominant self, and he’s ceded five homers, a .361 OBP, and .361 wOBA to left-handed batters this year. Schimpf’s not only a three-true-outcomes (TTO) machine, but he’s also a fly-ball happy hitter with a nearly unfathomable 62.8% FB% this year. He doesn’t hit many singles. It’s a dinger, a walk, a punch out or a fly out in most of his plate appearances, but add it all up and you’re looking at a .341 OBP, .304 ISO, and 128 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since reaching The Show last year. The lefty slugger’s pop will get a slight lift at Citi Field with a left-handed batter park factor of 103 for homers, per StatCorner’s rolling three-year average.

Honorable Mentions

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD): $4,700 vs. Cardinals
Seager’s a stud, but with corners needing to be cut in order to accommodate rostering the pricey arms on this slate, I’m not convinced he’ll carry a sky-high ownership rate. Shortstop is a fairly common position to punt, and Seager’s salary is nowhere near punt territory. If you spin off of him, my suggestion is to punt the position, and Tim Beckham‘s power makes him a good candidate against a homer-prone hurler. Anyway, getting back to Seager, He owns a .401 OBP, .221 ISO, and 158 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in his young career and will join Grandal in benefiting from Lynn’s struggles with lefties.

Honorable Mention

Outfield

Manuel Margot (SD): $2,800 @ Mets
Margot is a product of needing to save salary, but you can do worse than nabbing a leadoff hitter facing Harvey these days. Margot has some speed with five stolen bases, enough punch to put the ball in the seats on occasion with four taters, and he’s bumped his BB% up from 4.3% in April to 10.4% in May, cut his strikeout rate down from 19.8% to 16.9%, and nudge his wRC+ up from 86 to 95. Hitting leadoff with Schimpf slotted in the cleanup role gives them some point-scoring synergy.

Lorenzo Cain (KC): $3,600 @ Yankees
Cain looks like one of the biggest bargains on the board tonight. The BABIP gods have been frowning on him when he faces a lefty this season, but his walk rate has been elite against them. Since 2014, he’s ripped off a .374 OBP, .192 ISO, and 137 wRC+ against southpaws. His offensive value will be further bolstered by right-handed batter park factors of 127 for homers and 103 for runs at Yankee Stadium.

Cody Bellinger (LAD): $4,400 vs. Cardinals
Bellinger wraps up our roster and our Dodgers stack finding himself sandwiched between Seager and Grandal in the Dodgers last lineup facing a righty. The club’s No. 3 hitter and mashing rookie has pummeled righties for a .351 OBP, .373 ISO, and 160 wRC+. As the most power-packed lefty of the bunch, I’ve opted to wait to reveal Dodger Stadium’s inviting 121 left-handed batter park factor for homers until his write up. The 2-through-4 in the Dodgers lineup has nice upside tonight and can be budgeted for easily around the high-octane duo of McCullers and Carrasco on the bump.

Honorable Mentions

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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