DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (5/17)
There are 11 games on the main slate as we cross into the second half of May, and it’s looking like a great one to attack for DFS purposes. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for DraftKings.
Matt Shoemaker (LAA): $8,800 vs. CWS
Shoemaker put forth a strong outing in his last start, pitching six innings with no walks while racking up seven strikeouts and allowing zero runs. While it was nice to see a healthy correction in his counting statistics, I’m still a little worried about some underlying peripheral numbers. Not only are a BABIP of .239 and an xFIP of 5.01 concerning, but a hard minus soft contact rate of 23.2% sticks out like a sore thumb. With that in mind, something will have to give tonight, as Shoemaker will take the mound against a weak offense in the White Sox. Chicago sports a 22.8% strikeout rate while they rank 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This has led to them carrying an implied team total of just 3.32 runs, with Shoemaker currently being a -161 favorite.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): $7,800 vs. TOR
Let’s get nuts! Doubling down, Foltynewicz is a high-risk, high-reward option tonight against the Blue Jays. Toronto has shown some signs of life as of late, but they still rank 25th in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching while carrying a 21% strikeout rate. Despite a 1-4 record, Foltynewicz has been a serviceable option at times, but keying on those good days has been the issue. He’s flashed upside in three starts while struggling in the others. In summary, hang on for a wild ride!
- Michael Pineda (NYY): $10,100 @ KC
- Matt Garza (MIL): $8,200 @ SD (GPP)
- Jhoulys Chacin (SD): $7,100 vs. MIL (GPP)
Willson Contreras (CHC): $3,100 vs. CIN
The wind looks to be blowing out at 21 mph to left-center field again tonight, which should translate to another offense-oriented game. Contreras is cheap exposure to the Cubs’ lineup, and he will square off against a mediocre pitcher in Scott Feldman. Contreras has shown good pop against same-handed pitching in the past, and he’s got a chance to do some damage tonight.
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,600 @ KC
- Jonathan Lucroy (TEX): $3,900 vs. PHI (GPP)
- Stephen Vogt (OAK): $3,100 @ SEA
Victor Martinez (DET): $3,400 vs. BAL
With Miguel Cabrera in front and now J.D. Martinez crushing behind him, Martinez stands to benefit going forward, assuming everyone stays healthy. The Tigers have an implied run total over five runs tonight, as they face Ubaldo Jimenez at home, so I love targeting Martinez’s soft price. He also has a good track record against Jimenez, having collected 12 hits in 34 at-bats (.353 AVG), including four home runs. With a lot of high-priced talent likely to attract a bunch of attention, Martinez could fly under the radar a bit this evening.
- Freddie Freeman (ATL): $5,200 vs. TOR
- Joey Votto (CIN): $4,700 @ CHC
- Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $4,400 vs. CIN
- Miguel Cabrera (DET): $4,200 vs. BAL (GPP)
- Justin Smoak (TOR): $4,200 @ ATL (GPP)/Kendrys Morales (TOR): $3,800 @ ATL (GPP)
Rougned Odor (TEX): $4,100 vs. PHI
Odor’s standard deviation is high, but that’s what makes him an appealing tournament option. Tonight is a great spot to target his upside, as he and the resurgent Rangers face a weak starter in Zach Eflin. Eflin doesn’t strike out many hitters (4.78 K/9), and he has seen the benefit of some luck, as he sports a BABIP of .235 to go with an xFIP of 4.73. Eflin has struggled mightily with left-handed power in a small sample, having dished out 12 home runs in just 47.2 IP. It’s going to be hot in Arlington tonight, which should create an environment that is conducive to power.
- Jonathan Villar (MIL): $4,500 @ SD (GPP)
- Javier Baez (CHC): $3,700 vs. CIN (GPP)
- Jed Lowrie (OAK): $3,600 @ SEA
- Brandon Phillips (ATL): $3,300 vs. TOR (GPP)
Kris Bryant (CHC): $5,100 vs. CIN
Bryant returned to the lineup last night after missing a few games due to illness, and he didn’t skip a beat, recording 14 DKP. The Cubs have a whopping projected total of 6.73 runs, which can be attributed to facing an average pitcher with a stiff wind blowing out during the game. Bryant has mammoth power upside, and he is a strong play across all formats.
Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,200 vs. TOR
Don’t look now, but after a rough start to the season, Swanson has collected a hit in eight straight games. The Braves are facing Joe Biagini, who is a reliever that is slowly being utilized away from the bullpen. This has led to the Braves having a healthy implied run total in the mid-4s, and I think there will be plenty of opportunities for Swanson to produce as a result. While he will likely hit out of the ninth spot in the batting order, I don’t mind taking a flier on him with the hopes that he keeps things rolling.
Mike Trout (LAA): $5,600 vs. CWS
I’m running out of adjectives to describe Trout, so I’ll cut right to the chase. Miguel Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher, and he’s not a very good pitcher overall, as evidenced by a 5.64 K/9 and an xFIP of 5.25. Trout continues to do everything, and while he couldn’t hit another home run last night, he tacked on another hit, three walks, and a stolen base.
Matt Kemp (ATL): $4,500 vs. TOR
Kemp continues to thrive with the Braves, and he is in a good position to keep it rolling again tonight. The Braves are also clicking right now as a team, and now they return home to their new park that has played very friendly towards hitters thus far. I already noted the contextual factors in play for the Braves, so I don’t mind targeting a few of their hitters tonight in tournaments.
Nomar Mazara (TEX): $4,000 vs. PHI
I touched on Zach Eflin’s issues with left-handed hitters earlier, so it’s hard not to like Mazara tonight. He’s registered multi-hit performances in three straight games, including a home run last night. There’s a saying that success breeds confidence, and it’s tough to argue with the way the Rangers are rolling right now.
- Aaron Judge (NYY): $4,900 @ KC
- Billy Hamilton (CIN): $4,400 @ CIN (GPP)
- Andrew Benintendi (BOS): $4,400 @ STL (GPP)
- J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,300 vs. BAL
- Matt Holliday (NYY): $4,100 @ KC (GPP)
- Kyle Schwarber (CHC): $3,800 vs. CIN
- Kole Calhoun (LAA): $3,600 vs. CWS
- Ender Inciarte (ATL): $3,600 vs. TOR (GPP)/Nick Markakis (ATL): $3,600 vs. TOR (GPP)
- SP – Matt Shoemaker (LAA): $8,800 vs. CWS
- SP – Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): $7,800 vs. TOR
- C – Willson Contreras (CHC): $3,100 vs. CIN
- 1B – Victor Martinez (DET): $3,400 vs. BAL
- 2B – Rougned Odor (TEX): $4,100 vs. PHI
- 3B – Kris Bryant (CHC): $5,100 vs. CIN
- SS – Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,200 vs. TOR
- OF – Mike Trout (LAA): $5,600 vs. CWS
- OF – Matt Kemp (ATL): $4,500 vs. TOR
- OF – Nomar Mazara (TEX): $4,000 vs. PHI