There are 10 games on the main slate for Wednesday, and it’s shaping up to be a solid one for fantasy purposes. Let’s take a look at a lineup for DraftKings.
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Pitcher
Luis Severino (NYY): $9,900 vs. KC
Severino will square off against the Royals this evening, who don’t pose much of a threat as they rank 26th in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They also strike out 21.4% of the time, which is right around league average, but they walk at a clip (6.8%) that is below league average (8.6%). Severino carries a high 28% strikeout rate, while he generates a 51.6% ground ball rate. With an xFIP of 2.87, we should continue to see improvement from Severino, who has been bitten by some bad luck in the home run department (20.6% HR/FB rate). Chris Sale is the unquestioned ace of this slate, but with Severino checking in at a steep discount, I don’t mind pivoting away from Boston’s LHP.
Julio Teheran (ATL): $8,200 vs. PIT
Here we go. I can hear it now: “But Teheran has been AWFUL at home this season!” Yes, I know he’s been awful at home this season (10.5 ERA vs. 0.71 on the road), but I’m going to roll the dice in hopes that he gets it figured out against an opponent that A) possesses below league average power against right-handed pitching and B) ranks 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. While it’s also true that his last opponent ranks in the bottom third against right-handed pitching, I think the emotions of dealing with the Freddie Freeman injury the night before factored into his performance (subsequently plunked Jose Bautista, even gave up a homer to the pitcher). In an effort to stem the concerning performances at home, Teheran skipped his routine side session in the bullpen and took his workout to the mound at SunTrust Park. His slider has always been his most effective secondary pitch and he’s admittedly had trouble locating it this season. He spent his time on the mound during this workout not only attempting to get comfortable but also working on that pitch. All in all, I expect Teheran to get this figured out at some point, and I’d expect ownership levels to be very low given the stigma surrounding him pitching at home.
Other Notables
- Chris Sale (BOS): $13,500 vs. TEX
- Rich Hill (LAD): $8,900 vs. STL (GPP; risky start)
- Jarred Cosart (SD): $4,700 @ NYM (GPP; good option to pair with Sale in tournaments)
Catcher
Evan Gattis (HOU): $3,600 vs. DET
Gattis has produced a .220 ISO against lefties the past couple of seasons, and he will face one in Daniel Norris who struggles with right-handed hitters. Norris’ hard minus soft contact rate against right-handed hitters sits at 21% over his last 129.2 IP, and he’s allowed 1.04 HR/9 during that span. The Astros have an implied run total over five, so there should be plenty of production to be had throughout their lineup tonight.
Other Notables
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,500 vs. KC
- Tyler Flowers (ATL): $3,700 vs. PIT (GPP)
- Willson Contreras (CHC): $3,600 vs. SF (GPP)
- Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,600 vs. STL
First Base
Logan Morrison (TB): $4,100 vs. LAA
Morrison boasts a .213 ISO against right-handed pitching the last couple of seasons, and he will face a weak one in Ricky Nolasco tonight. Nolasco has been worse against same-handed hitters the past couple of seasons. While that trend has held true to form this season, he’s not exactly been lights out against lefties. In fact, he’s got a nearly 20% hard minus soft contact rate to left-handed hitters, and with Morrison displaying great power this month, it’s tough not to like his tournament upside tonight.
Other Notables
- Hanley Ramirez (BOS): $4,600 vs. TEX
- Ryan Zimmerman (WAS): $4,600 vs. SEA (GPP)
- Josh Bell (PIT): $3,900 @ ATL (GPP)
Second Base
Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,100 vs. DET
I noted Daniel Norris’ issues with right-handed hitters earlier, so it’s tough not to like Altuve as part of a Houston stack tonight. Altuve has produced a .393 wOBA/.186 ISO/153 wRC+ line against left-handed pitching over the past couple of seasons, and he should thrive at home tonight against a weak one.
Other Notables
- Daniel Murphy (WAS): $5,000 vs. SEA
- Brandon Phillips (ATL): $4,400 vs. PIT (GPP)
- Ben Zobrist (CHC): $4,200 vs. SF (GPP)
- Dustin Pedroia (BOS): $3,900 vs. TEX
Third Base
Evan Longoria (TB): $4,000 vs. LAA
Ricky Nolasco has fared worse against right-handed hitters in the past, having allowed a .346 wOBA and 1.67 HR/9 since 2015, and that trend has continued this season. He’s dished out nine home runs to same-handed hitters already in 2017, and Longoria is no slouch against right-handed pitching (.205 ISO). I like the Rays to do some damage tonight, and I’m hoping they go overlooked in tournament play.
Other Notables
- Kris Bryant (CHC): $5,100 vs. SF
- Anthony Rendon (WAS): $3,700 vs. SEA (GPP)
- Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,600 vs. STL
Shortstop
Tim Beckham (TB): $2,900 vs. LAA
Ideally, we’d like to see Beckham in the top five of the batting order, but I still don’t mind the salary relief if he’s in the bottom third of the order. I have picked on Ricky Nolasco a few times already, and I like utilizing a stack against him. While Beckham won’t hold the platoon advantage, keep in mind Nolasco has been worse against right-handed hitters. Beckham has decent pop against right-handed pitching (.200 ISO), and he could run into one tonight against an average pitcher.
Other Notables
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $4,700 vs. TEX
- Corey Seager (LAD): $4,700 vs. STL (GPP)
- Carlos Correa (HOU): $4,500 vs. DET (check status)
- Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,900 vs. PIT (GPP; best utilized in a stack)
Outfielders
Michael Conforto (NYM): $4,900 vs. SD
There’s some risk involved in picking on a ground ball pitcher, but it’s also hard to ignore Conforto right now. Cosart’s xFIP is nearly two and a half times higher than his actual ERA, so despite his ability to generate ground balls, he’s not nearly as good overall as his ERA suggests. Conforto hit two home runs last night, which pushed his season total to 13, and he continues to hit for a high average as well. Ride the hot streak while you can.
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,800 vs. DET
Gonzalez rounds out my trio of Houston hitters, which underscores the lack of faith I have in Daniel Norris. Gonzalez’s track record against lefties isn’t phenomenal, but a .339 wOBA/.199 ISO is nothing to sneeze at. An increase in walk rate (11.4% vs. 5.2% career) at the plate suggests he’s been more selective than in the past, and with a BABIP (.294) that’s not out of line, Gonzalez’s success could continue.
Matt Adams (ATL): $3,500 vs. PIT
Adams has wasted no time getting acclimated with his new team, as he’s homered in consecutive games. Apparently, that doesn’t justify a meaningful salary increase, as it’s been $3,300 and $3,200 in those two contests. Adams is in position to keep it rolling tonight, as the Braves will face a bad pitcher in Trevor Williams. Williams has a below average strikeout rate (5.68 K/9), walks too many hitters (3.91 BB/9) and has an xFIP of 5.37. With Adams’ vulnerability lying in strikeouts, I’m not overly concerned about that tonight against a pitcher that doesn’t strike out many hitters.
Other Notables
- Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,600 @ PHI (GPP)
- Mike Trout (LAA): $5,500 @ TB (GPP)
- Mookie Betts (BOS): $5,100 vs. TEX
- Matt Kemp (ATL): $4,800 vs. PIT (GPP)
- Corey Dickerson (TB): $4,700 vs. LAA (GPP)
- George Springer (HOU): $4,200 vs. DET
- Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY): $3,900 vs. KC
My Lineup
- SP – Luis Severino (NYY): $9,900 vs. KC
- SP – Julio Teheran (ATL): $8,200 vs. PIT
- C – Evan Gattis (HOU): $3,600 vs. DET
- 1B – Logan Morrison (TB): $4,100 vs. LAA
- 2B – Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,100 vs. DET
- 3B – Evan Longoria (TB): $4,000 vs. LAA
- SS – Tim Beckham (TB): $2,900 vs. LAA
- OF – Michael Conforto (NYM): $4,900 vs. SD
- OF – Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,800 vs. DET
- OF – Matt Adams (ATL): $3,500 vs. PIT
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
