Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here. I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Really excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
We have seven games on the evening slate today, and lineups lock at 7:15pm EST.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Weather
The major weather concern for me is in St Louis, where there is a pretty significant chance of thunderstorms right around game time. There’s a fairly high probability of a delay or postponement, which is enough to cause me to avoid that game for the sake of tonight’s lineup.
Overall Thoughts
I’m going what will probably be a slightly different direction than most tonight, which makes this lineup ideal for tournaments. I have to be honest that I am not loving the slate as much for cash games, but I will likely still dabble with this roster, or something similar come lock. I’m a big fan of my SP’s skills on the slate, and feel there’s enough power and exploitable match-ups in the hitting department to back up the slightly risky SP play. In fact, my team has better than a .240 ISO split and 39% hard hit average as an offensive group vs RHP over the last couple years – a combo of numbers that I’m not sure I’ve ever had in my few years of playing DFS. Should be awfully interesting for GPPs.
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Pitcher
Luis Perdomo (SD): $7,400 vs ARI
From a pure skills perspective, Perdomo and Samardzija stand out to me on the mound tonight. They both are sporting sub-3.00 SIERAs on the year, have a 8.9+ K/9, sub-3.0 BB/9, are keeping opponents with a sub 28% hard hit rate, have whiff rates over 10% and chase rates over 32%. All very impressive feats.
Working against Perdomo here is the fact he has to throw against the Diamondbacks, but at least it’s at home in Petco. The Diamondbacks destroyed Jered Weaver on Friday, but we all saw that coming. I love Perdomo’s 71% ground ball rate and the .344 BABIP is going to eventually level out – which helps us get him at a bit of a discount right now. He’s a sneaky value option on the slate, and since I feel the STL/SF game is too risky to target for pitchers, I am going a different direction.
Other Notables
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,000 vs MIA
Dan Straily is the ideal guy to put some power bats in the lineup against, and with Austin Barnes playing on Friday, it’s a near sure thing that Grandal will be back behind the dish for Julio Urias on Saturday. His .225 ISO vs RHP will play extremely well for a fly ball arm, and as a fly ball hitter himself, it won’t shock me if he has a highly productive day.
Other Notables
First Base
Chris Davis (BAL): $3,900 vs TOR
Davis may have a high K% vs RHP (33% to be exact, dating back to the start of 2016), but he also has a gaudy .305 ISO and .381 wOBA for the split. His 44% fly ball rate and hard hit rate stands out from the pack, and against a guy like Mike Bolsinger that really isn’t going to fool anyone, it’s hard to imagine him not having a fairly big game.
Other Notables
Second Base
Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,000 @ DET
Odor’s price is very solid for the way he’s hitting, and even though the name Justin Verlander will scare many away, I am fine to play him considering the red flags the Detroit starter has per my research. He has a 4.60 SIERA, 38% hard hit rate and 48.2% fly ball rate so far in 2017. For a guy like Odor with plenty of power, including the quick wrists that can catch up to high velocity, things actually line up pretty well for the Rangers’ two-bagger.
Other Notables
Third Base
Kyle Seager (SEA): $3,200 vs CWS
The first of the two Seager brothers to step into the lineup for me today. He is one of the safest overall plays on the slate if you ask me, sporting a mere 14% K rate vs RHP, a .196 ISO and .352 wOBA split. He also gets the joy of facing Mike Pelfrey here, and is hitting the ball extremely well right now.
Other Notables
- Nick Castellanos
- Joey Gallo
- Manny Machado
- Jake Lamb (if fading Perdomo)
Shortstop
Corey Seager (LAD): $3,500 @ MIA
The younger of the Seager brothers makes yet another appearance for me here, and like I mentioned with Grandal, things are awfully rosy for him in this match-up. The price is right, and his splits are pretty incredible. He has a .225 ISO / .405 wOBA / 158 wRC+ combination against RHP dating back to 2016. Not only that, but as a high power bat, he also has a low K% (17%), which makes the floor nice and high to boot.
Other Notables
Outfield
J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,100 vs TEX
Not going away from Martinez while the value is still there on the mound. He had another two hits on Friday and continues to have some of the best hard hit metrics in the game right now. His price is high, but it’s also not hard to find room for him when you aren’t even spending $7,500 for your pitcher. He has massive power numbers vs RHP over the last couple years, and continues to be an elite play for me in DFS.
Jay Bruce (NYM): $3,700 vs LAA
I like both Bruce and Michael Conforto on the slate, but Bruce ends up fitting the bill slightly better thanks to his higher split numbers and better price point. In his last 1,002 PA, he has 58 HR, a .266 ISO, 40% hard hit rate and 45% fly ball rate vs RHP. Alex Meyer has talent, but is still far too raw and susceptible to quality hitters. The Mets’ power LHBs are an interesting lower-own group to target on the slate.
Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,200 vs TOR
Trumbo won’t see playing time on my roster too often thanks to his boom or bust tendencies, but on a team projected for over five runs, and with his power potential facing a contact-oriented SP in Bolsinger, it’s hard to avoid him at the price as my last roster selection. He has a .229 ISO and 118 wRC+ vs RHP over the last couple years, and could easily go deep in this match-up (at least once).
Other Notables
- Michael Conforto
- Adam Jones
- Tyler Collins
- Cody Bellinger
- Nomar Mazara
- Justin Upton
- Yasiel Puig
- Joc Pederson
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Marcell Ozuna
- Mike Trout
- Nelson Cruz
- Kole Calhoun
My Lineup
- SP – Luis Perdomo (SD): $7,400 vs ARI
- C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,000 vs MIA
- 1B – Chris Davis (BAL): $3,900 vs TOR
- 2B – Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,000 @ DET
- 3B – Kyle Seager (SEA): $3,200 vs CWS
- SS – Corey Seager (LAD): $3,500 @ MIA
- OF – J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,100 vs TEX
- OF – Jay Bruce (NYM): $3,700 vs LAA
- OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,200 vs TOR
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Jared Kwart is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, find his work at FantasyCruncher.com and follow him @FCJaredK.
