Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here.
I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
We only have a five-game slate to work with on Saturday night, thanks to plenty of early action. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types unique to MLB.
Win cash playing in FanDuel’s MLB Squeeze 
Weather
Weather shouldn’t be a factor tonight, which makes it pretty easy for us to keep a clear focus on all five games.
Overall Thoughts
I would love to pay up for Dallas Keuchel on the slate, but I don’t feel strong about the bats that I can complement him with considering the Coors game is primed for mid to heavy exposure. I mean, it has an 11 run total, and two very average SPs are on the hill. With that said, I am recommending a mid-range SP investment strategy to bolster the hitting and allow for a nice level of Coors bats.
Pitcher
Brandon McCarthy (LAD): $8,400 vs. CHC
This may feel like a fairly risky start, but I have always loved what McCarthy brings to the table, and I feel he’s going to do enough to be a DFS asset today. The Cubs have been softer vs. RHP than LHP this season, and away from Wrigley is a more favorable situation for an SP.
His groundball rate of nearly 47% is very good, and his hard hit rate of only 27% on the year is second-best on the slate after Dallas Keuchel. His 35% chase rate is elite (and tied for top spot on the day), and I do believe spending down into this territory is wise considering the Coors game is critical for heavy exposure.
Other Notables
- Dallas Keuchel
- Gerrit Cole
- Zack Wheeler
Catcher
Tyler Flowers (ATL): $2,800 @ SF
I didn’t want to spend up too much for a C on the slate, and Flowers fits the bill at a nice price point. Ty Blach doesn’t miss many bats, and Flowers possesses solid wOBA and hard hit rates (both above average) vs. LHP. He has a bit of power as well and should be able to get us three-to-six points at a minimum.
Other Notables
First Base
Mark Reynolds (COL): $4,000 vs. STL
One of the first guys I penciled into my lineup so that I could have shares of Coors in a plus split that many may overlook. He crushes RHP and faces a declining Adam Wainwright in a great hitting environment tonight. Look for him to make good use of the .200 ISO/.357 wOBA split and high fly ball rate in an excellent match-up.
Other Notables
Second Base
Joe Panik (SF): $2,500 vs. ATL
I don’t feel the value is there in spending up at 2B tonight, so I am happy to go with Panik at the price point. He barely strikes out (9% K rate over the last couple years vs. RHP) and has a very solid line drive rate for the split as well. He hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball this year but makes for a nice lineup stabilizer against a mediocre RHP who should hit in the top third of the lineup, as he’s done in each of his last seven starts.
Other Notables
Third Base
Nolan Arenado (COL): $4,800 vs. STL
Like with Reynolds, I wanted to spend up for an elite Coors play in Arenado. He possesses all kinds of upside in this match-up, sitting with a near .300 ISO splits vs. RHP over the last couple years, and is a high-floor play considering the low K% and tremendous hard hit/fly ball combination as well. For a team projected over the 5.5 run mark, he’s a no-brainer in this one and worth every penny.
Other Notables
Shortstop
Jose Reyes (NYM): $2,800 @ PIT
The value isn’t tremendous across the SS options today, but I am more than happy to pay for Reyes at a sub-$3,000 tag. He has been making plenty of contact lately and has hit the double-digit FDP mark in four of his last seven games, with at least one hit or run scored in five straight. Inexpensive exposure to the top third of the order bats is always a nice way to go when you’re looking for lineup fillers, and that’s exactly the role he plays for me on Saturday even though he’s facing a quality SP in Gerrit Cole.
Other Notables
Outfield
Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $4,000 vs. STL
CarGo got off to a soft start this year but has started to come along nicely. Some of his numbers vs. RHP are too good to ignore, and he remains a high-ISO, high-wOBA split, high hard-hit rate skill in Coors, which makes him a great play on the day. If you are going with Coors exposure, all of him, Arenado and Reynolds make for excellent options.
Dexter Fowler (STL): $3,600 @ COL
Another piece of Coors exposure that I am happy about on the day, and I am happy to go back to him on Saturday despite a disappointing Friday. His value for under $4,000 is solid, and the fact he will be hitting at the top of the lineup puts him in a great spot to succeed. Kyle Freeland is a ground ball pitcher but does not miss many bats.
Joey Rickard (BAL): $2,100 @ HOU
This is a pure punt play for a guy that should be leading off for the Orioles’ tonight but is also in a very tricky spot vs. Keuchel. His numbers vs. LHP dating back to the start of last year are very solid, with a wOBA split over .340 and .170 ISO – but Keuchel’s a tough SP who’s excellent at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact. That said, for nearly the site minimum, you can’t argue with a filler like him that could get a hit and/or run scored and easily pay off the salary while spending up for plenty of Coors bats in the process.
Other Notables
- Charlie Blackmon
- Adam Jones (value)
- Ian Desmond
- Gerardo Parra (if starting)
- Michael Conforto
- George Springer
- Jay Bruce
- Matt Kemp
- Randal Grichuk
My Lineup
- SP – Brandon McCarthy (LAD): $8,400 vs. CHC
- C – Tyler Flowers (ATL): $2,800 @ SF
- 1B – Mark Reynolds (COL): $4,000 vs. STL
- 2B – Joe Panik (SF): $2,500 vs. ATL
- 3B – Nolan Arenado (COL): $4,800 vs. STL
- SS – Jose Reyes (NYM): $2,800 @ PIT
- OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $4,000 vs. STL
- OF – Dexter Fowler (STL): $3,700 @ COL
- OF – Joey Rickard (BAL): $2,100 @ HOU
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Jared Kwart is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, find his work at FantasyCruncher.com and follow him @FCJaredK.
