Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here. I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Really excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
We have a 12 game slate to work with on Saturday evening. Lineups lock at 7:05pm EST.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Weather
There are chances of rain in Pittsburgh and Atlanta tonight, but I don’t think we are going to be looking at any major PPD issues. That said, a delay could get in the way of the SPs getting in their full workloads, so we’ll steer clear of the arms in those situations.
Overall Thoughts
I really hope that you followed along with at least a couple of my plays last night. Eduardo Rodriguez turned in a solid ROI performance, and the Cody Bellinger/Paul Goldschmidt duo really helped power us to a near 200 FDP score. I cashed in all contests and had a very profitable night. I write these columns to help you make more MLB DFS moola, so here’s to hoping you were able to do the same.
Overall, I am hesitant to play Kershaw on a night where Coors is as attractive as it is. His price on FanDuel is better than DraftKings, but I worry about the ability to build a well-rounded lineup that could help propel us to a winning evening. This lineup will look to another high-skill pitcher in a good match-up, especially since the salary savings allow significant upgrades in hitting.
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Pitcher
Lance McCullers (HOU): $8,500 @ LAA
McCullers is my top SP option behind Kershaw tonight, and I don’t think you can beat the value on FD at only $8,500 (nearly $4,000 less). Despite the Angels being a good team at putting the ball in play, McCullers sports an elite K rate (11.7 per 9 IP), 2.75 SIERA (best on the slate) and slate-high 13% whiff rate as well. His 57.5% ground ball rate is 0.3 points lower than Gsellman’s – but he also is doing a fantastic job limiting hard contact. The fact he is on the road brings the win probability down, and J.C. Ramirez is also pitching quite well for the Angels at the moment. Win or not, he’s a very strong candidate for a quality start and 6-8 Ks, and is a fantastic value compared to Kershaw. If you are looking for Coors exposure on this slate like I am, McCullers has to be one of your go-to SP options on FD.
Other Notables
- Clayton Kershaw (great for H2H tonight, but hard to play in GPPs)
- J.C. Ramirez (have you noticed the K/9 this year?)
- Robert Gsellman (contrarian GPPs only; the SIERA and GB% indicates better days ahead)
Catcher
Dustin Garneau (COL) : $3,200 vs ARI
Editor’s note: Pick updated to Chris Iannetta (ARI) $2,900 @ COL
This is a position that I want some reasonably-priced Coors exposure, especially if Garneau is behind the dish. At $3,200, I am fine with the price, particularly against an over-achieving Patrick Corbin and his 4.11 SIERA vs 2.29 ERA. Corbin has a .352 wOBA vs RHBs dating back to the start of last year and a 4.24 xFIP for the split. I expect the Rockies to do some damage against him today, and as long as Garneau is starting, I am more than happy to use him as a piece of Coors access.
@FantasyPros @FanDuel Update! Iannetta over Garneau. Smith over Granderson.
— Jared Kwart (@FCJaredK) May 6, 2017
Other Notables
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $5,300 @ COL
Another way to get access to Coors today, and with a very high-end talent. He went yard twice last night, and while there is a good chance that doesn’t happen once again today, it’s an excellent situation for the Diamondbacks vs Tyler Anderson and his fly ball tendency so far this year. They are one of the best offensive teams in the league, sporting a 34% hard hit rate as a club vs LHP on the year. Anderson has a wOBA of .350 vs RHBs over the last couple years, and I have a hard time seeing him fail to reach the 15-20 FDP plateau today.
Other Notables
- Ryon Healy (love for GPPs)
- Chris Davis (elite GPP pivot off Goldy)
- Joey Votto
- Trey Mancini (if playing)
Second Base
Jed Lowrie (OAK) : $2,300 vs DET
Lowrie is making very good contact with the ball right now and makes for one of the top values on the slate at any position. For only $2,300, we have him in a great spot against Jordan Zimmermann who is one of the weakest arms on the slate (43.8% hard hit rate, 48.4% fly ball rate YTD). He’s been worse against LHB than RHB, but the wOBA splits for both are excellent for bats. I want at least a share of the Oakland lineup against the overrated Zimmermann today, and this is one way I can power up at other positions.
Other Notables
Third Base
Manny Machado (BAL): $3,800 vs CWS
Machado and Goldschmidt (see below in the OF for one more) are all hold-overs from my Friday lineup. Dylan Covey’s 6.03 SIERA, 3.4 K/9 and mere 4.8% whiff rate make me absolutely drool. He’s been getting destroyed by RHB in his short time in the majors, making all RHBs elite options tonight. For a guy that has his kind of skill set and is on the upswing from a hard hit perspective, Machado’s elite power potential against a weak pitcher makes him a top play on Saturday evening.
Other Notables
Shortstop
Trea Turner (WAS): $4,200 @ PHI
Some will look at Velasquez and perhaps avoid the Nationals with Coors on tap – but that would be fairly short-sighted. Turner makes for an elite skill player at a price you can find room for in a lineup like this, against a RHP that can be run on and behind a team that sports one of the best wOBA splits vs their type of SP on the slate. I want exposure to the 5.1 BB/9, as the likelihood that Turner gets on base, swipes 1-2 bags and scores 1-2 runs is very high. I’d rather have him than Owings at the same price, to be honest. That may not be the chalk play per Vegas, but I am more than fine with it.
Other Notables
- Chris Owings (incredibly chalky; I would fade in GPPs)
- Trevor Story
- Zack Cozart
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Addison Russell
Outfield
Adam Jones (BAL): $3,100 vs CWS
Jones’ price has been coming down lately as a result of below-average play, but a batting practice-like match-up against Dylan Covey could be just what the doctor ordered. Because I want exposure to the Orioles tonight and am paying up for power at other positions, Jones fits the bill as a mid-range, high-upside option with power potential against a reverse-splits SP.
Curtis Granderson (NYM): $2,400 vs MIA
Editor’s note: Pick updated to Seth Smith (BAL): $2,900 vs. CWS
The value holds over for me here today, and against a mediocre SP that is making his first start of the 2017 season, I am more than happy to (basically) punt the spot with an OF coming off a night with a long ball and in a positive split. I do like the Mets as an under-the-radar team for hitting exposure, and while I don’t want to stack it in this lineup, his value is hard to ignore at $2,400.
Patrick Kivlehan (CIN) (CIN): $2,000 vs SF
At minimum price, I am more than happy to ride a lower-third (of the order) bat against Ty Blach who barely strikes anyone out. Kivlehan has shown nice power in his MiLB time, and it would not shock me to see the Reds score 4-5 runs in this game. He could easily go 0 for 4 with 2-3 Ks and get us zero points, but in a solid match-up and the fact that he allows us to spend up for Goldy, Machado, Turner and even a high-K SP like McCullers makes it worth the risk. I consider anything I get out of him to be a bonus here.
Other Notables
- A.J. Pollock
- Yasmany Tomas
- Jay Bruce
- Michael Conforto
- Adam Duvall
- Seth Smith
- Khris Davis (elite GPP option)
- Albert Almora
- Franklin Gutierrez
- Tyler Collins
- Ian Desmond
- Justin Upton
- Carlos Gomez
- Aaron Judge
- Matt Joyce
My Lineup
- P – Lance McCullers (HOU): $8,500 @ LAA
- C – Chris Iannetta (ARI): $2,900 @ COL
- 1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $5,300 @ COL
- 2B – Jed Lowrie (OAK): $2,300 vs DET
- 3B – Manny Machado (BAL): $3,800 vs CWS
- SS – Trea Turner (WAS): $4,200 @ PHI
- OF – Adam Jones (BAL): $3,100 vs CWS
- OF – Seth Smith (BAL): $2,900 vs CWS
- OF – Patrick Kivlehan (CIN): $2,000 vs SF
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Jared Kwart is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, find his work at FantasyCruncher.com and follow him @FCJaredK.
