FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (5/17)
Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here. I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Really excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
We have 11 games on the evening slate today, and lineups lock at 7:05pm EST.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
The only concern at this point is in Minnesota, where it’s very possible we will get a delay or even a postponement. To avoid that risky situation, I will refrain from including players from that game despite some intriguing match-ups.
The earlier part of the day features some studs on the mound, starting with Clayton Kershaw who takes on the Giants. That leaves us with a fairly short list of SPs to work with in the evening that pass my sniff test, and the 2 that I like most are Matt Shoemaker and Michael Pineda. Depending on how you weigh Vegas totals in your valuations, the decision will tip one way or the other for you. Their FanDuel prices are both quite reasonable, and although I expect them both to have solid games, I can only use one in this column. I also want heavy exposure to DET, TEX and PHI tonight, so let’s read on and have a look at how the lineup shapes up.
Matt Shoemaker (LAA): $8,100 vs CWS
Shoemaker had his best start of the year against the Tigers in his last outing, going 6 innings with 7 strikeouts and only 3 hits allowed. Could he be rounding back into that early season form that he exhibited last season, where he had a near 10 start string of dominance? Perhaps – or he could just match up extremely well with the Tigers (who he’s had a lot of success against over his career). That said, he still sports some very solid swing and miss stuff (10.7 whiff rate, 31.3% chase rate YTD) and a nice 8.4 K/9. His match-up is the juiciest on paper, with the White Sox sitting with a .281 wOBA split vs RHP and a 23% strikeout rate, too (and the lowest hard hit rate of any SP I would consider playing on the slate). He should get us 35-40 points in this match-up, with upside for more.
Cameron Rupp (PHI): $3,100 @ TEX
Rupp has been a LHP masher of the course of his time in the majors, and has a solid 36% hard hit rate to his name on the year. The Rangers/Phillies game is a prime one for exposure on the slate considering the Vegas total and weak SPs taking the mound, and I love the powerful bat in a hitter’s park in a positive split. You can easily pivot to a guy like Victor Martinez, but I wanted to spread exposure around to the top 3 hitting teams on my radar tonight.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) : $3,500 vs BAL
Miggy has a 48% hard hit rate to start the season, but only sits at 4 HR thus far on the year thanks to a mediocre HR/FB rate and uncharacteristically high 24.8% strikeout rate. A match-up against Ubaldo Jimenez should be just what the doctor ordered, though. Great situation against the pitcher that not only walks a ton of batters, but also gives up plenty of hard contact to both LHB and RHB. For the price, in a game that I want hitting exposure to, he’s a great play.
Rougned Odor (TEX) : $2,800 vs PHI
Odor has been the recipient of a .211 BABIP to start the year and a mere 10.5% HR/FB rate for a guy that makes solid hard contact (35.8%) and puts the ball in the air at a great clip (47.9%). Against Eflin in Texas, it’s a prime team to heavy-up exposure to on the slate – particularly while his price is at what will likely be a season-low once he busts out.
Joey Gallo (TEX) : $3,200 vs PHI
A few 3B that I like are all in the same price range on the slate, but I am going with the elite fly ball hitting, powerful lefty that gets to hit at home against a weak fly ball pitcher (Eflin). He has a mere 4.8 K/9 on the year (one of the lowest on the board for Wednesday night), which should work well for Gallo since he’s a total boom or bust bat. It’s a risky play without question, but one that I feel is more than worth the price of admission on the slate. His .341 ISO and 59.1% fly ball rate screams HR upside.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) : $3,000 vs PHI
This is a position that I am not really crazy about tonight, but Andrus has been surprisingly effective to start the year for the Rangers with 5 HR and 7 SB through 38 GP. His 113 wRC+ and .341 wOBA on the year are very solid numbers, especially for a guy of his price point and ability to put the ball in play (very serviceable 15.7% K rate). He should be at the heart of a Rangers barrage, and that makes him worth a start of me in my lineup.
Aaron Altherr (PHI) : $4,200 @ TEX
Though I do worry that Altherr’s inflated price and hot streak will come to a crashing halt soon, this is a positive split vs a LHP and he’s making elite hard contact these days with a 40.7% rate on the year. He has 8 HR and 22 RBI through his first 99 PA and a 194 wRC+ (gaudy .475 wOBA, too). Martin Perez is primed to give up some runs, and it won’t surprise me to see Altherr leave the yard. Because we aren’t playing a $10K+ arm, we can easily pay up for him at $4,200 and have a highly balanced roster elsewhere.
J.D. Martinez (DET): $3,600 vs BAL
Martinez is fresh off of a multi-homer game on Tuesday night, and gets a great match-up against Jimenez on Wednesday. He has elite fly ball and power skills, and is clearly rolling to start his 2017 season despite missing the first chunk of the year recovering from a spring injury. His numbers are too ridiculous (and small sample in 2017) to call out, but his track record of elite power production at a great price makes him a tremendous mid-range play on the slate.
Justin Upton (DET) : $3,500 vs BAL
I am a little too excited about how much power this lineup has, and with the number of guys in such great spots. Upton has an absurd 46.5% hard hit rate to start the year, and a .268 ISO mark on the year (148 wRC+) which ranks near the top of all OFs in 2017 to date. His 15% walk rate against a wild SP like Jimenez – to go along with the excellent power – makes him a high floor and ceiling candidate for DFS deployment here, and is a great name to round out my roster with.
- Nomar Mazara
- Kyle Schwarber
- Matt Joyce
- Khris Davis
- Tommy Pham
- Matt Holliday
- Aaron Judge
- Mookie Betts
- Andrew Benintendi
- Jose Bautista
- Kevin Pillar
- Mike Trout
- Andrew McCutchen
- SP – Matt Shoemaker (LAA): $8,100 vs CWS
- C – Cameron Rupp (PHI): $3,100 @ TEX
- 1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET): $3,500 vs BAL
- 2B – Rougned Odor (TEX): $2,800 vs PHI
- 3B – Joey Gallo (TEX): $3,200 vs PHI
- SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX): $3,000 vs PHI
- OF – Aaron Altherr (PHI): $4,200 @ TEX
- OF – J.D. Martinez (DET): $3,600 vs BAL
- OF – Justin Upton (DET): $3,500 vs BAL