Welcome to the sixth edition of this weekly series where I’ll provide a list of players that could help impact categories in standard 5×5 leagues.
With the season beginning to take shape, this lists mixes in some player’s with 50%+ ownership rates who should be considered in shallow formats or who make for potential trade targets.
Be sure to check back every Thursday for a fresh list of potential contributors. Percentages represent each player’s ownership in Yahoo! Leagues.
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Batting Average
I’ve been sitting on this recommendation for several weeks now due to playing time concerns. As outstanding as Hicks has played, he’s still relatively blocked by Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Aaron Judge. But you can only keep Hicks on the pine so long when he’s hit .338 with six homers and five steals in 94 plate appearances.
Hicks has displayed elite command of the strike zone with a major-league best 14% chase rate leading to a remarkable 18% walk rate and 14% strikeout rate. I don’t expect him to maintain a .338 batting average as his .339 BABIP comes down closer to the .300 mark, but he still should be a contributor in that department based on the low K-rate.
The batting average will be there as he continues to chip in across all five categories – primarily runs should he continue to see time in the two-hole.
Home Runs
The Baltimore rookie has popped 10 dingers in his first 90 trips to the dish. Extrapolate that over a full slate of plate appearances, and you can chalk up 67 homers for the slugging righty. Okay, next player.
Alright, so maybe he’s played a bit over his head so far, but the point remains that Mancini has some legit thunder in that bat. I’m a touch skeptical given he was never a slugger in the minors, but his success so far is backed up by his batted ball data.
Note 18.8% of Mancini’s batted balls result in a barreled baseball. For those unfamiliar, a “barrel” is a ball struck at a launch angle and exit velocity that results in at least a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. It’s the gold standard of contact, and only 10 major leaguers have done so with more frequency than Mancini to date. In fact, he’s sandwiched between Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera – good company. Playing time permitting, Mancini could notch a 30-homer campaign.
RBIs
This is the guy you came here to find. If you don’t have him rostered, drop what you’re doing and get him, then come back and finish the article.
Eno Sarris pointed out a change in Alonso’s approach this spring where he made a discernable effort to add loft to his swing. In doing so, he has already surpassed his single-season HR tally, smashing his 11th Tuesday night.
Alonso’s new approach has led to a strikeout spike, but since he was such a contact-focused guy all of his career, the spike brings his current K-rate to a league average 21%. This means an unsustainable strikeout rate doesn’t prop his .300 batting average, and his .297 BABIP is a reasonable expectation.
As far as the contact is concerned, Alonso sits one spot behind Miguel Cabrera with a 17.8% barrel rate – 13th best in the league – which goes with a top 25 hard contact rate of 41%.
To suggest Alonso is dialed in would be an understatement. The 7th best average batted ball distance in baseball tells me the power is here for good, and the career-high 11.6% walk rate means he’s not just selling out for the power, rather he sees the ball very well.
Many, including myself, doubted the breakout would every come for this once-hyped prospect. But we are witnessing it.
Runs
The Phillies Phenom had a double-dong afternoon cranking his sixth and seventh bombs of the year against Seattle. This brought his triple slash to .351/.435/.743 over 85 plate appearances.
Altherr can’t put up a 1.178 OPS all season long, but those are the results you get when every ball you hit has a vapor trail behind it. In fact, 52% of shots off Altherr’s bat have been 95+ MPH which helps explain the .413 BABIP.
Admittedly, that number will come down, but there is a lot to like about Altherr, even after some regression hits.
I’ve got him here as a runs contributor as he’s hit second and third in the lineup most nights but has the tools to fill five categories regularly. He’s still available in most mid-sized leagues, but not for long.
Stolen Bases
Broxton was a wide-awake sleeper this draft season as people realized the raw 20/40 talent he possessed. I was particularly excited when Craig Counsell indicated he’s his two-hitter, but ultimately ended up with no shares as I couldn’t get over his propensity to whiff.
It’s rare to find speed on the waiver wire that isn’t going to drain 3-4 other categories. Broxton has the potential to fill out those categories if he can just make more contact.
The ceiling is high, but the floor is the bench if he can’t curb a 37% strikeout rate. So far, a .408 BABIP has kept him afloat to the tune of a .258/.340/.472 triple slash. Once the BABIP erodes to a more realistic level, his offensive profile loses shine. I’m still willing to take a shot on him, but the leash is short.
Wins
Despite his 5.02 ERA a subpar K-rate, I’m still intrigued by the 24-year-old out in Houston. Unfortunately, I can’t point to his xFIP (4.64) or SIERA (4.54) and say “he’s just been unlucky.” Both his BABIP and LOB% are normal if not a bit better than league average. His astronomical 18.6% HR/FB rate will come down some, sure, but this is more than a case of bad luck.
Perhaps it’s just a hunch, but when I watch Musgrove pitch, I still see the rookie who posted a league average K-rate and plus walk rate, who can be an okay, if not stellar, major leaguer. Those skills coupled with a mediocre walk rate might only make him a true-talent 4-ERA arm, but that arm can win a lot of games backed by the second best lineup in baseball (121 wRC+).
Strikeouts
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS): 55%
Let me begin by saying I’m not buying this 3.07 ERA in the slightest. He walks too many batters to achieve that mark as a left-hander pitching in Fenway. But that elite strikeout rate is for real.
Rodriguez has elevated the usage (21%) of his devastating changeup (25% whiffs) to reach an elite 14.3% swinging strike rate. The slider is no slouch with a 15% whiff rate on its own. All in all, batters make contact 46% of the time when they chase out of the zone – only Danny Salazar gets more chase whiffs.
The walks and the park will do some damage to his ratios, but he will be a wins and strikeout machine for the Red Sox down the stretch.
ERA
Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF): 73%
Samardzija is one of my favorite buy-low targets at the moment. Unlike with Joe Musgrove, I can point to Samardzija’s peripherals and chalk up his 5.44 ERA to a heap of misfortune. The reality is, the big righty is having the best year of his career with 10.7 strikeouts per nine and a sub-2 BB/9.
His good work has been spoiled by a .325 BABIP, 58% strand rate, and 18% HR/FB rate. In looking at his batted ball profile, his exit velocities and batted ball distances are completely normal. His hard-hit rate is identical to his career mark. There’s just nothing there to suggest he should be getting clobbered the way he has.
I don’t expect his ERA to catch up to his 2.88 xFIP, but he’s a mid-to-upper 3 ERA talent with sufficient strikeouts to boot. Now’s a very good time to catch a perturbed owner in a moment of weakness.
WHIP
The Texas right-hander has witnessed his ownership rate jump quite a bit this week – once for streamers looking to exploit the start at San Diego, and again for those who saw him twirl a complete game shutout.
Griffin’s inability to keep the ball in the yard led to a 5.07 ERA in his first season with the Rangers last year. I don’t think he’s done anything to remedy those woes, especially once the ball starts flying out of the yard this Summer.
However, Griffin has a career plus walk rate that is partially responsible for his 2017 success. His tendency to avoid free passes combined with a career .253 BABIP allowed makes him a suitable candidate to pad your WHIP in deeper leagues. In fairness, his career BABIP is so low because the dingers don’t count against it, but his 1.17 career WHIP demonstrates he’s skilled in limiting base runners.
Saves
Neftali Feliz currently holds the ninth inning job in Milwaukee, but the clock is ticking. Whether the clock is ticking down to the trade deadline, or a time bomb – eventually it will read all zeros, and there will be a new closer for the Brew Crew.
Feliz has saved 8 of 9 chances, but a 4.91 ERA and 5.05 xFIP paint the real picture. Given Feliz is signed to a one-year deal this can play out one of two ways. Either he hangs on long enough to establish a hint of trade value before the July deadline, or his outcomes catch up to his skills and he loses the job altogether. Regardless, Knebel should be the guy closing out victories over the second half of the season.
Knebel’s 14 K/9 and 2.13 xFIP legitimize him as a bonafide bullpen ace in the early goings. If he does take the job, he’ll be one of the better closers in the league down the stretch.
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Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
