Welcome to the seventh edition of this weekly series where I’ll provide a list of players that could help impact categories in standard 5×5 leagues.
With the season beginning to take shape, this list mixes in some player’s with 50%+ ownership rates who should be considered in shallow formats or who make for potential trade targets.
Be sure to check back every Thursday for a fresh list of potential contributors. Percentages represent each player’s ownership in Yahoo! Leagues.
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Batting Average
Since 2015, Reddick has made noticeable strikeout rate gains, lowering it to 12.1% in that span, placing him among the top 25 contact hitters.
Over that time frame, his tendency to put the ball in play while using the entire field eliminates vulnerability to the shift and has allowed him a .293 BABIP en route to a .279 batting average.
Given the park upgrade from Oakland/Los Angeles to Houston, his current .286 mark seems entirely sustainable. In addition to the plus batting average, Reddick is a 20-homer threat who should score a ton of runs hitting in the two-spot of the deadly Astros lineup.
Home Runs
Finally.
Much like Yonder Alonso in last week’s edition, Smoak is finally living up to the hype. He’s on pace to tally 30-plus homers and backs that power up with a top 20 Barrels-per-Plate Appearance (10%). Smoak is driving the ball with authority, as 48% of batted balls exceed 95 MPH in exit velocity. That’s ahead of Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper.
Come for the homers, stay for the RBIs, and even batting average should he manage to maintain the 19% strikeout rate. I don’t anticipate he can hang on to his .281 mark, but .250-.260 isn’t unbelievable.
Runs
Pederson has been quite the disappointment so far hovering slightly above the Mendoza line and homer-less since his Opening Day grand slam. Still, I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on the 25-year-old.
While the results haven’t been there, Pederson is among the top 20 hitters in baseball when it comes to batting balls with a 95+ MPH exit velocity. Hitting the ball that hard by a large frequency means he is doing something right. He needs to stop smacking worm burners at a 49% clip, but if and when he does, his batted ball profile will pair well with a career 14.6% walk rate.
Dave Roberts has flipped Pederson back and forth between the leadoff spot and the bottom of the order. He’s not far from returning to an OBP threat in the Dodgers’ lineup who could score a lot of runs leading off.
RBIs
As the case with Pederson, Justin Bour would benefit greatly by adding more loft to his swing. He’s a legitimate 30-homer threat but won’t get there hitting the ball on the ground at his current 50% rate.
Still, Bour owns a top 5 average exit velocity of 94 MPH, and the sixth highest rate of balls batted over 95 MPH (51%). In short, he’s raking and is pacing a near 100 RBI campaign because of it.
His production has earned him a promotion to the cleanup spot, and despite continued struggles making contact with left-handed pitching, his 39% hard hit rate versus southpaws has shed him of the platoon label.
Stolen Bases
His first career five-hit game on Tuesday evening lifted his average to .214 in what’s been a frustrating year for the Halos left fielder. However, a 14% walk rate has quietly led him to a .328 OBP, and he’s parlayed that into nine swipes in nine opportunities.
Should his .267 BABIP regress anywhere near his .320 career mark, that elite walk rate could lead him to reach base 35% of the time. As long as he’s not getting thrown out, Mike Scioscia will let him run. Not to mention the run scoring opportunities that may come with his new promotion to the leadoff spot with Yunel Escobar on the disabled list.
This one’s definitely for the deep leaguers and AL-onlies, but he’s worth a watch list in mid-sized leagues.
Wins
Charlie Morton (SP – HOU): 50%
The new-and-improved Charlie Morton has won all of his last four starts while racking up 35 strikeouts along the way. Houston saw something in his spin rate over 17 innings with the Phillies last year, and it’s paid dividends so far as Morton paces a 20-win season supported by a 3.33 xFIP.
A mid-3 ERA is certainly within reach down the stretch, and that’s going to result in a lot of victories being back by arguably baseball’s best offense.
Strikeouts
Karns features two lethal secondary offerings in a changeup and curveball that feature 21% and 26% swinging strike rates. In unison with a 93-94 MPH fastball, it’s no wonder he owns a top 10 swinging strike rate among qualified MLB starters.
If you need the strikeouts, Karns is an excellent bet to offer them at more than one per inning. I love the 55% groundball rate, but he’s still suffering from Gopheritis (1.8 HR/9) and will probably see his walk rate migrate closer to the 9-10% range.
The upside is there for a mini-breakout if it all clicks, but I’m only betting on the strikeout surge for the time being.
ERA
This one isn’t a clear cut as last week’s recommendation of Jeff Samardzija who has simply been on the wrong end of some batted ball luck. In fact, Straily’s 4.79 xFIP suggests he’s been on the other end of the spectrum and unworthy of his 3.56 ERA. Perhaps the case – but there could be something here.
For one, Straily’s career best first pitch strike, zone, and chase rates don’t add up to his career worst 11% walk rate. He’s always had struggles with the walks, but the way he’s attacking hitters should result in a lower rate nearer the league average of 8%.
Second, while 500 career innings is still a relatively small sample, Straily has outperformed his xFIP by 0.6 runs thanks to a .249 BABIP and 6% pop out rate. Considering pop outs are essentially as effective as strikeouts, there is a lot of room for Straily to outperform his peripherals justly.
Can he hang onto the 3.56 ERA? Probably not. But a sub-4 ERA with a passable WHIP and strikeout total isn’t a bad find if you’re limited to pitchers in the 20% owned range.
WHIP
Alex Wood’s ownership rate implies he is the 55th most desired starter in Yahoo leagues. If that’s how he’s valued in your league, now is the time to make a move to buy high.
Wood’s added velocity has made the change up a more devastating pitch, allowing a .178 batting average and .044 ISO.
While the strikeouts will come down a bit from the 33% mark, his 12% swinging strike rate insists on more than a batter per inning retired via the punch out. That bodes well for a guy who has never had walk issues, is currently spinning 63% groundballs, and gets to call cushy Dodger Stadium home.
Wood makes the list for the elite WHIP he offers, but will also help your ERA, strikeouts, and win plenty of games to boot. All this, and he’s currently owned at a lower rate than Robbie Ray, Andrew Triggs, and Mike Leake. If he’s getting that level of respect in your league, it’s time to swoop.
Saves
Typically I offer a closer-in-waiting, but the news of Diaz’ demotion from the ninth innings is worth covering this week. I can’t sugar coat the fact Diaz has been a bust so far. The strikeouts are down, the walks are up – it’s been a mess.
Here’s the thing: there isn’t anybody in the Seattle bullpen that has the chops to take this job and run with it. Steve Cishek’s velocity has been down in his two poor outings. Tony Zych is a guy I liked but has been a disaster in this regard. Nick Vincent’s stats don’t check out with his peripherals. I suppose Marc Rzepczynski could get a look?
The point is, I think this demotion is an opportunity for Diaz to clear his head and get back out there. I’m not paying full price for a struggling reliever who is currently out of a closer job, but I’m kicking the tires to see how low a frustrated owner will go.
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Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
