My dad used to play water polo, a barbaric sport that requires you to tread water in a pool for a half hour while playing dodgeball (at least that’s how my mom described it to me when I was a seven-year-old). I remember one time he came from a game looking particularly haggard, and I asked him who won. He replied, “Kid, in water polo, there are no winners. Only survivors.”
I thought of that line when I read an article this preseason by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs analyzing how teams’ initial closers performed from 2013 through 2016. Zimmerman put the results in a chart, which I’ve replicated below:
| Season | Count | % |
|---|---|---|
| Closer from beginning to end | 47 | 39% |
| Lost to injury | 26 | 22% |
| Poor performance | 29 | 24% |
| Traded away | 9 | 8% |
| Traded for | 3 | 3% |
| Suspension | 2 | 2% |
| Replacement returned | 4 | 3% |
In other words, from 2013 through 2016, about 40% of relievers who started the season as the closer held the job for the entire season. Got that? Of our 30 closers at the start of the season, history says that just 12 of them will make it through the season unscathed.
I’m thinking we’re going to fall short of that 12 this year. We are a little more than a month into the season and Jeurys Familia, Roberto Osuna, Zach Britton, Sam Dyson, Cam Bedrosian, Jeanmar Gomez, Francisco Rodriguez, and Mark Melancon have already lost their jobs, at least for some time, due to suspension, ineffectiveness, or injury. That’s eight already. I mean, I don’t know about you, but I’m calling the Dodgers and asking them to wrap Kenley Jansen in bubble wrap, ASAP!
When the fantasy baseball season concludes and my kids ask me how I did in saves this year (as they do at the end of every season, obviously), I know how I’ll respond. I’ll be thinking back to my good ol’ dad and remind them that in the race for saves, there are no winners – only survivors.
So let’s take a look at this weathered and beaten closer landscape and see if we can’t make some sense of it all. Let’s try to survive!
Bookmark our Closer Depth Chart for updated coverage throughout the season 
| Team (Closer) | Current Rank | Previous Rank |
| Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) | 1 | 2 |
| Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) | 2 | 1 |
| Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) | 3 | 3 |
| Cubs (Wade Davis) | 4 | 4 |
| Rays (Alex Colome) | 5 | 5 |
| Indians (Cody Allen) | 6 | 7 |
| Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna) | 7 | 9 |
| Rockies (Greg Holland) | 8 | 11 |
| Mets (Jeurys Familia) | 9 | 10 |
| Royals (Kelvin Herrera) | 10 | 8 |
| Cardinals (Seung-Hwan Oh) | 11 | 13 |
| Mariners (Edwin Diaz) | 12 | 14 |
| Orioles (Brad Brach) | 13 | 12 |
| White Sox (David Robertson) | 14 | 15 |
| Marlins (A.J. Ramos) | 15 | 16 |
| Astros (Ken Giles) | 16 | 17 |
| Pirates (Tony Watson) | 17 | 18 |
| Twins (Brandon Kintzler) | 18 | 19 |
| Rangers (Matt Bush) | 19 | 21 |
| Braves (Jim Johnson) | 20 | 22 |
| Brewers (Neftali Feliz) | 21 | 23 |
| Padres (Brandon Maurer) | 22 | 24 |
| Angels (Bud Norris) | 23 | 25 |
| Reds (Raisel Iglesias) | 24 | 26 |
| Athletics (Santiago Casilla) | 25 | 29 |
| Diamondbacks (Fernando Rodney) | 26 | 27 |
| Phillies (Hector Neris) | 27 | 28 |
| Tigers (Justin Wilson) | 28 | 20 |
| Giants (Derek Law) | 29 | 6 |
| Nationals (Committee) | 30 | 30 |
The Big Movers
Obviously, the biggest mover is the Giants, with Mark Melancon hitting the 10-day disabled list. Bruce Bochy wasted little time declaring Derek Law the de facto closer, and Law converted his first opportunity on Wednesday, albeit in Fernando Rodney-esque fashion. Law should see the majority of chances with Melancon out, but a) it sounds like Melancon won’t be out long, b) the Giants rarely win, and c) Law’s dicey performance Wednesday could lead to Hunter Strickland getting a crack. So, yeah, I’m not rushing out to own any Giants reliever right now.
The Tigers also take a fall with Francisco Rodriguez mercifully being relieved of his ninth-inning duties. Justin Wilson will get the first crack, so it’s not a full-on committee here, but we have no idea how long the rope is going to be. Own Wilson, without question. Just don’t feel confident that you have a guaranteed closer on your roster.
The A’s and Santiago Casilla are the only other “significant” movers, as I suggested last week that they might be. Casilla continues to pitch well and has full control of the ninth inning with Sean Doolittle on the disabled list. Again, they’re 25th, so let’s not do cartwheels. But we’re out of the cellar!
Random Musings
For the first time, we have a change at the top spot, with Kenley Jansen finally surpassing Aroldis Chapman. Let it be decreed that when you have a -0.94 FIP and your competitor blows a three-run lead on Sunday Night Baseball, you will surpass him in these rankings.
Greg Holland has officially made it into the top 10, and I see no reason that he can’t stay there all season. Again, this is not peak Holland, but if it were, he’d be top three. He’s still outstanding. For those owners who took him late, well done and enjoy the ride.
Jeurys Familia stays at 10, mainly because most of the guys behind him have also struggled, but things are not right. It’s pretty much impossible to hold down the closer’s role all season if you go through games where you just can’t throw strikes. The Mets are loyal to Familia, and their bullpen is much better if Addison Reed can put out fires in the eighth inning, but monitor this one a bit.
**Editor’s note: Jeurys Familia underwent surgery on Friday and is expected to miss several months.
Honestly, I have no idea what to do with the Orioles. Brad Brach took back the closer’s role from the injured Zach Britton, with Britton being shelved for 45 – 60 days with a forearm strain. The injury would ordinarily vault Brach, who has been a lockdown reliever and performed well during Britton’s first DL stint, into the top 10. Unfortunately, Brach has started imploding. After zero earned runs allowed in his first 12 innings pitched, he now has a 10.29 ERA in his last seven innings pitched, which includes Wednesday night’s total meltdown against the Nationals. The Orioles have a very competent replacement for Brach in Darren O’Day, but until we hear otherwise, I’d expect Brach to continue to get the chances. Assuming Brach can rediscover his form, he will move up significantly.
My guess is that the White Sox and the Marlins will eventually present save situations for David Robertson and A.J. Ramos. I mean, the law of averages say that it has to happen at some point, right? No? I don’t do math. Seriously, saves come in bunches. It will be ok. (I hope).
Bud Norris is thriving in the closer’s role. Congratulations, universe. You win.
I’m pretty sure Raisel Iglesias will keep rising in these rankings. It’s nothing personal – he’s awesome. It’s much more about how the Reds use him and his opportunities. But if his mom could stop emailing me and yelling about his ranking, that’d be swell. To be clear, I don’t know if she is actually Iglesias’s mother. But with how angry she is about his ranking, I’m just assuming.
Fernando Rodney – still a closer, still winning at life. My hero.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
