There’s no one definitive path to relief stardom. Even if they all fill a certain prototype, this week’s roundup of fantasy free agent adds have different origin stories.
One wielded ace upside before injuries had other ideas. Another former starter just didn’t have the goods to stick in the rotation. As one hard-thrower with “closer stuff” waits for his chance to assume the ninth inning, another is repairing his diminishing stock.
And don’t forget the boring left-handed specialist racking up holds. Those guys often matter when counting the category in fantasy formats. Give these guys a look in holds or saves-plus-holds leagues.
This isn’t the typical middle-relief roundup eyeing future closers. Instead, this column aims to help those in holds (or saves-plus-holds) formats. In some cases, they’re even useful for deep-league managers eyeing a strikeout and ratio boost beyond the obvious names.
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Like many other starters struggling to remain employable, Mike Minor has discovered *takes off sunglasses* major success in the bullpen.
Although once a valuable young member of the Atlanta Braves’ rotation, shoulder injuries derailed his rise to stardom. He hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2014, so depreciated demand necessitated a new role.
The 29-year-old is now authoring a second chapter to his career with the Kansas City Royals, for whom he has notched a 1.82 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 24.2 frames. A scoreless May has led to more high-leverage opportunities for Minor, who has recorded three holds in his last six appearances.
During his dominant month, opponents have a meager .168 wOBA against the southpaw. He’s beating them with gas, utilizing a heater with an average velocity elevated to 94.91 mph. If he continues to regain his strength in shorter outings, Minor will earn Ned Yost’s trust as the permanent seventh-inning man. The Royals manager has relegated his top relievers to strictly defined roles, which is good news for fantasy gamers searching for holds.
A long time ago, Keone Kela excited the masses as a preseason middle-reliever sleeper who could dominate in the eighth until leading a mutiny to claim the ninth. Wait, that was just last year?
After registering a 2.39 ERA and 20.6 K-BB percentage in 2015, Kela was the consensus choice to supplant Shawn Tolleson for the Texas Rangers’ closer role. Kela instead posted a 6.09 ERA, and Sam Dyson capitalized on Tolleson’s collapse before Matt Bush continued the vicious cycle and replaced Dyson this season.
Meanwhile, Kela started 2017 in Triple-A for reasons unrelated to performance. Brought back up in mid-April, he’s slowly reminding the Rangers and fantasy owners why he belongs.
His 3.94 ERA isn’t particularly impressive, especially since he has surrendered just seven hits in 16 innings with help from a .161 BABIP. Two of those hits were home runs, including a Marwin Gonzalez grand slam on May 2. Since the rough outing against the Houston Astros, he has displayed dominant stuff.
The righty has 10 strikeouts in his last four appearances, upping his season tally to 21. Command issues aside, his 20.6 K-BB% mirrors 2015’s promising rate. He has also compiled four holds since Gonzalez cleared the bases over three weeks ago.
Walks and home runs are a dangerous pairing for a young reliever, but Kela’s strikeout prowess may nevertheless keep him relevant in holds formats. If he keeps the ball in the park without walking everyone, he could eventually plant a flag in the eighth inning.
This writer never understood the preseason buzz surrounding Arodys Vizcaino as a speculative saves grab. Why stash someone with a 6.05 BB/9 stuck behind Jim Johnson, a veteran with job stability after last year’s late strikeout boom?
That still applies for traditional five-by-five formats, as Johnson’s job is in no danger with a 2.42 FIP, 5-1 K-BB ratio and 56.6 ground-ball rate. Vizcaino, however, has proven his merit as a late-inning arm—and possibly the Atlanta Braves’ future closer—by slashing his walk rate to 2.33.
It appears more than early noise, as the 26-year-old has thrown first-pitch strikes to 65.6 percent of his opponents after never previously hitting 60. His swinging-strike rate has also jumped to a career-high 16.0, so he’ll keep punching out over a batter per frame.
A .238 BABIP and 88.6 percent strand rate have also attributed to his ERA dropping from 4.42 to 2.33 despite nearly identical FIPs (3.66 in 2016, 3.65 in 2017). Look for the flamethrower to find common ground. Playing for the Braves hasn’t hindered his value, as he has compiled five of his nine holds over the past 11 days. Perhaps a midseason Johnson trade opens the door for saves, but for now, enjoy the holds and strikeouts.
A top-five saves compiler would receive notice regardless of his other numbers, so let’s take a look at Taylor Rogers. Managers typically don’t bother rostering a non-closing reliever with a 3.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts in 15.1 innings.
Yet Rogers is owned in 5 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues, a higher rate than Minor (4%) and Kela (3%). That’s because he’s one of five relievers with double-digit holds.
| Rank | Player | Holds |
| 1 | Adam Ottavino, COL | 15 |
| 2 | Taylor Rogers, MIN | 12 |
| T3 | Felipe Rivero, PIT | 11 |
| T3 | Corey Knebel, MIL | 11 |
| T3 | Andrew Miller, CLE | 11 |
Is he merely the Fernando Rodney of middle relievers? That’s a tad too cruel. Tony Watson is a better comparison for Rogers, a fellow southpaw also keeps the ball in the infield with a 55.8 ground-ball percentage.
Like Watson, who led MLB in holds from 2012 to 2015, Rogers benefits from brief cameos. Despite relinquishing a .332 wOBA to fellow lefties in a microscopic sample size, he has recorded one out to earn six of his holds. The high mark isn’t entirely fluky, but don’t get carried away. He’s not Watson 2.0, but instead a poorer model.
Gamers must decide if an extra few holds warrant the subpar ratios and scarce strikeouts. The answer is likely “yes” mainly in deeper leagues.
Another former starter, Shane Greene’s 2014 breakout feels like decades ago. Following three promising outings to open 2015, his rotation dreams shattered by allowing 60 runs in his next 13 starts. After posting a 3.19 FIP hidden behind a grotesque 5.82 ERA last season, the baseball gods are making amends.
Nearly two months into 2017, Greene has ceded three runs with 26 strikeouts and a .195 opposing batting average over 22.2 innings. He has stockpiled multiple strikeouts in four of his last five appearances, totaling 10 in 7.1 frames. Besides new Detroit Tigers closer Justin Wilson, only Alex Wilson (seven) has more holds than Greene’s six.
Now to throw some cold water over his success. He has stranded 94 percent of his baserunners, an increasingly tough ask for someone who has already issued 10 walks. While his 50.9 ground-ball rate helps ease concerns, a hard-hit percentage over 50 percent does not. A 9.6 swinging-strike rate doesn’t support his strikeout boost, but he cemented a healthier 12.7 percentage last year.
Greene still remains Detroit’s best relief choice before handing the ball to Justin Wilson, so consider him in deeper leagues despite the regression risks. Just don’t expect the elite production he has delivered recently.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and BrooksBaseball
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
