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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: (5/8 – 5/14)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: (5/8 – 5/14)

Injuries continue to pile up, and the implementation of the 10-day DL has resulted in a higher frequency of DL trips this season. However, there has been plenty of fluctuation in performance unrelated to health. We’ll take a look at whose stock has appreciated and whose has depreciated over the second week in May.

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Rising in Value

  • Alex Wood (SP – LAD)
    The Los Angeles Times reported that Wood has earned a permanent spot in the Dodgers’ rotation after a six-inning shutout with 10 strikeouts in Coors Field on Saturday. He boasts career best 33.1% strikeout and 11.9% swinging strike rates in 2017 so far. Wood is also enticing groundballs at a 62.8% rate. He needs to be owned in all leagues at this point.
  • Tommy Pham (OF – STL)
    Pham has long been a Statcast darling, ranking 19th in average exit velocity among all hitters in 2016 and 28th in 2015. However, a career 31.8% strikeout rate kept him from playing time. He’s struck out 27.0% of the time in 2017, albeit with solid 7.7% swinging strike and 77.8% contact rates. Playing time may still be an issue when Stephen Piscotty returns, but Pham is a very good hitter if his strikeout rate can remain palatable.
  • Justin Wilson (RP – DET)
    Wilson ranks only behind Craig Kimbrel, Tommy Kahnle, Kenley Jansen, and Chris Devenski in strikeout rate among RPs this year. He also has a lower walk rate than 66% of the league and just became the Tigers’ closer. Wilson carried a 2.93 FIP from 2015-16 and looks to be even better this year. He’s an elite closer even if the market hasn’t valued him like one yet.
  • Nate Karns (SP – KC)
    After a 12-strikeout performance against the White Sox, Karns now has a 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate – something you might expect from Yu Darvish. His swinging strike rate has improved to 12.9% from a career 10.3% average, so the uptick in strikeouts may be genuine. Karns has a 4.46 ERA this year, but he’s doing something interesting behind the scenes.
  • Justin Smoak (1B – TOR)
    Justin Smoak breakout articles have been around since the dawn of civilization it seems, but this time it’s real! Maybe not, but Smoak is posting the best contact and swinging strike rates of his career. He’s also 20th among batters in hard contact rate at 43.2%. He’s always had power, but Smoak may have just figured out how to hit for a respectable batting average.

Falling in Value

  • Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT)
    Polanco was a popular sleeper after a 22/17 season flashed an enticing combination of speed and power. He’s followed it up with 1 HR in 132 PAs. The issue seems to be a spike in groundball rate from 38.8% to 51.0%. His contact rates haven’t improved either, so it’s not as if Polanco is selling out power for a higher batting average. Don’t expect much more than 10 HRs at the end of the season unless Polanco’s launch angle comes up.
  • Jerad Eickhoff (SP – PHI)
    Eickhoff started the season on his way to another quietly strong campaign with a 2.55 ERA and 3.52 FIP over his first four starts, but he’s given up 14 runs over his last three with his ERA ballooning to 4.76. Eickhoff is giving up a little more contact and failing to command his pitches as well as he did from 2015-16. Perhaps his (brief) history of outperforming peripherals is catching up to him.
  • Brad Miller (1B/2B/SS – TB)
    Miller’s 30 HR season was one of baseball’s biggest surprises last season, but he’s hit just two HRs with a .194 batting average in 2017. Similarly to Polanco, Miller’s groundball rate has risen from 44.8% to 51.8%. Curiously, his contact rate has dropped while his walk rate has risen. Whatever evolution as a hitter Miller is undergoing, he shouldn’t be starting outside of deep leagues.
  • Alex Cobb (SP – TB)
    In what hopes to be his first full season since 2014, Cobb has a 3.65 ERA – not far out of line with his career 3.46 ERA. However, while the surface stats may look similar, Cobb has a swinging strike rate of 6.9% and contact rate of 84.3% versus career averages of 8.9% and 79.9% respectively. While it’s possible he’s still returning to form, Cobb isn’t the same pitcher he was from 2013-14.
  • Robert Gsellman (SP – NYM)
    Gsellman posted a 2.42 ERA over 44.2 innings in his rookie debut, though in 35.2 innings this year it’s blown up to 7.07. With an already mediocre walk rate, Gsellman can’t afford to stop missing bats, though his plate discipline stats are well below-average so far. He’s still generating plenty of groundballs, but stay away unless the strikeouts return.


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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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