This is Tom Whalen, filling in for the vacationing Stan Son with your weekly two-start pitcher rankings. As usual, remember that pitching rotations are constantly changing due to weather, injury, performance woes, DL rigging, and so forth. Best of luck this week!
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LOCKED, LOADED
1. Carlos Carrasco (5/29 OAK, 6/3 @KC)
Carrasco’s world-beating changeup (-35 wRC+ and 34.2 K-BB% over 141 offerings) will meet its match against an Oakland squad that has handled the change well this season. Even if the Cleveland veteran takes some lumps, you’ve got to like his chances of racking up the Ks against a team that’s top-four league-wide in strikeout rate on the season. Carrasco gets a nice weekend jaunt to Kansas City to pick on the depressing Royals offense. Activate and celebrate.
2. Chris Sale (5/30 @CWS, 6/4 @BAL)
Sale should gobble up the whiff-happy O’s, a top-six team in strikeouts against southpaws despite their gaudy 122 wRC+ against lefties on the month. The White Sox have proven quite tough on lefties too, with a top-four wRC+ and a stingy 17.2-percent strikeout rate that should make Sale’s return to The Cell a little interesting.
Still, it’s a certified ace versus a team that’s second-worst in all of baseball in hard-contact rate. Give me the big lefty every time.
3. Kyle Hendricks (5/29 @SD, 6/4 STL)
Hendricks’s changeup has taken a beating so far this year, coaxing significantly fewer swinging strikes and allowing a .200-plus ISO compared to last year’s .098 mark. Look for the inevitable regression on that pitch’s 33-percent HR/FB to take hold this week against a Padres team that’s bottom four in hard-hate rate against righties and a Cardinals’ team that’s average or worse by most team-wide power metrics.
4. Michael Wacha (5/30 LAD, 6/4 @CHC)
Wacha’s 80-plus-percent strand rate is due for some push back, and it might come this week against two teams that can handle the changeup, which is Wacha’s most reliable secondary offering. Still, Wacha’s got one of the lowest hard-hit rates among starters with at least 40 innings pitched, so until he betrays my undying faith, I’m rolling him out there regardless of opponent.
5. Marcus Stroman (5/29 CIN, 6/3 NYY)
Stroman’s road ERA is better than his home mark so far this year, but there’s probably a bit of unlucky variance in there since his wOBAs across the split are virtually identical. The Reds are competent against righties, with a top-seven team OPS, but they’re also very unproductive against the cutter, Stroman’s most effective pitch.
The Yankees are even worse against the cutter, which is only minor reassurance, perhaps: New York is the league leader in wRC+ against righties. I’m starting Stroman regardless, even if I’m not exactly thrilled.
RISK, REWARD
6. Jose Berrios (5/29 HOU, 6/3 @LAA)
The second chance at a first impression has positioned the Minnesota righty as an ace in waiting, but there’s a two-run gap between his ERA and FIP, so regression might come calling against the surging Astros. Houston is no longer the strikeout machine that made them stream-against targets over the past few seasons, and they’re top-third in team ISO against righties over the past two weeks.
7. Luis Severino (5/30 @BAL, 6/4 @TOR)
Owners basking in the afterglow of Severino’s dominant outing against the lowly Royals will have a hard time leaving him on the bench. The red-hot Blue Jays might put Severino’s persistent homer issues to the test, though both the Jays and the O’s are below-average against righties on the season overall.
8. David Price (5/29 @CWS, 6/3 @BAL)
It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Boston veteran, who starts his 2017 against a White Sox squad that boasts a top-five wRC+ against lefties over the past month. Baltimore’s been even better, with the league’s second-highest wRC+ against southpaws over that span. Most Price owners have waited too long to leave him benched for his debut two-step, but with a soft pitch count in play along with some tough road matchups, he’s not exactly a slam dunk to reward your patience right out of the gate.
9. Kenta Maeda (5/30 @STL, 6/4 MIL)
10. Rich Hill (5/29 @STL, 6/3 MIL)
Both of these Dodgers starters are coming off discouraging starts that will have owners thinking twice before considering them no-doubters for the upcoming week. Still, the blister-tarnished small sample makes it hard to take Hill’s six-plus walks-per-nine at face value, and the slumbering Brewers have been close to league-worst in production off of lefties over the last month.
Maeda, meanwhile, might consider abandoning his cutter, which is surrendering a 356 wRC+ on almost 100 pitches so far this season–that’s decidedly not good. Some bad luck on his normally killer slider (23 percent homer-to-fly compared to 11 percent last season) should spell positive regression in the near future.
The Brewers have seen tough on sliders and cutters all year, though, and while the Cardinals aren’t exactly fearsome, they are above average against righties on the season. With that said, I’d have a hard time sitting either guy here considering the lack of truly inspiring streaming alternatives.
MORE RISK, LESS REWARD
11. Jeremy Hellickson (5/29 @MIA, 6/4 SF)
We’re all waiting around for the other shoe here, with the gap between Hellickson’s ERA and FIP screaming imminent regression. I don’t think this will be the week, though.
The Giants are, of course, the cream of the crop in terms of offensive futility, ranking dead last in the league in wRC+ and OPS against righties, with the Marlins bottom-third by those same marks. Plus, the spacious Marlins Park provides a nice tonic for Hellickson’s susceptibility to the long ball.
12. Tanner Roark (5/29 @SF, 6/4 @OAK)
You’ll happily roll Roark out against the lowly Giants, but it takes a certain appetite for risk to keep him out there for the weekend jaunt against the A’s. The spacious Oakland Coliseum is a tempting streamer target, but the Athletics have made their bones producing off of changeups, and that pitch has vexed Roark all season, with its major strikeout gains offset by a doubling of ISO against.
13. Dylan Bundy (5/29 NYY, 6/3 BOS)
The Red Sox lineup (a bottom-third team in terms of team ISO against right-handers) doesn’t inspire the fear that it has in years past, but the Yanks boast a .230-plus ISO at home lead the MLB in wRC+ versus righties on the season. Bundy’s ERA trails his FIP by over a run, and you have to wonder if this isn’t the week that the young Orioles’ ace starts taking his lumps.
14. Julio Teheran (5/29 @LAA, 6/4 @CIN)
With a 7.18 ERA over 26-plus innings across his last month of work, maybe a nice road trip is just what Teheran needs since his home/road splits (10.50 ERA at home; 0.71 ERA on the road) are comical stark. Cincinnati is indeed competent against righties, but the Angels are bottom-third in terms of team wRC+ and OPS against. Teheran’s stock has taken a dent, but I can’t imagine most fantasy teams have the luxury of sitting him.
15. Sonny Gray (5/30 @CLE, 6/4 WSH)
I’m not ready to take the cheese on a Gray resurgence just yet, at least not with these matchups. His slider is looking nasty, but he’s still working on his fastball, and the Nats will bound bad fastballs. This seems like a “wait and see” week for Gray; the smart play would be to run out some trade offers for him if he does get knocked around this week.
16. Robbie Ray (5/30 @PIT, 6/4 @MIA)
The Pirates have been sub-par against lefties (frankly, they’ve been pretty bad overall), but Ray’s week will likely live or die on the weekend trip to Miami, as the Marlins boast a top-five team OPS against lefties. The strikeouts always make Ray enticing, but he’s a pretty risky play here.
17. Mike Leake (5/29 LAD, 6/3 @CHC)
The Dodgers have scuffled to a league-average wRC+ and bottom-third team OPS in May, but with a weekend visit to Wrigley (the Cubs have a top-third May wRC+ against righties), Leake seems tough and go this week, especially minus the strikeout upside of others in this tier.
18. Charlie Morton (5/29 @MIN, 6/4 @TEX)
Minnesota is thriving offensively, even if their power numbers against righties of late are decidedly below average. Morton’s struggles the third time through the order might come back to bite him against a Texas team that’s been stingy on the strikeouts against right-handers this month. You’ve got to need the Ks to roll Morton out there for two on the road this week.
19. Matt Moore (5/29 WSH, 6/4 PHI)
I want no part of Moore and his 40-percent hard contact rate against the Nationals, even at home. I’ll rate him a tick above “hands off” thanks to the date against the Phillies, who are jockeying for dead last in production against lefties this month.
STREAM INTRIGUE
20. Martin Perez (5/29 TB, 6/4 HOU)
Houston’s been surprisingly vulnerable against lefties of late, with a 92 team wRC+ over that span. With a plush weekend matchup against a Rays team that approaches 30-percent strikeouts against southpaws, I like Perez as a solid streamer play this week.
21. Erasmo Ramirez (5/29 @TEX, 6/4 @SEA)
The Eraser has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 16-plus innings as a starter, thanks in no small part to a changeup that’s “surrendered” an absurdly stingy -41 wRC+ across 108 offerings this season. The Mariners and Rangers are both bottom third in production off the change, setting Erasmo up as a nice plug-and-play.
22. Jose Urena (5/29 PHI, 6/3 ARI)
Urena’s a bad fastball guy, with his four-seam running a hair-raising 231 wRC+ on the season. His secondary stuff has been money, though, especially his slider, which should easily dispatch a Phillies’ squad that’s been among the league’s least productive against that pitch this season. Streamers facing a roster crunch can roll the 25-year-old out there and pray that Marlins Park can humble the white-hot Diamondbacks.
23. Matt Garza (5/29 @NYM, 6/3 LAD)
Garza took some inevitable regression on the chin this week in the form of a pounding at the hands of the Blue Jays. Don’t expect him to walk over the Mets, who have posted a top-third wRC+ against righties over the last month. Garza is about as unexciting as streamers get, but in the current SP climate, you don’t need to be exciting to be useful.
DESPERATE STREAMING
24. Tyler Anderson (5/30 SEA, 6/4 @SD)
25. Tyler Chatwood (5/29 SEA, 6/3 @SD)
The visit to San Diego makes these Rockies youngsters very tentative deep-league streamer plays, though I can’t imagine throwing either with a home start in play, even against the scuffling Mariners without the DH. I’d favor Anderson slightly if I had to pick since the Mariners have a bottom-third wRC+ against lefties over the last month.
26. Jordan Montgomery (5/29 @BAL, 6/3 @TOR)
The promising young Yankee certainly has a walk problem (over 3.5 free passes per nine across 46 innings), but there’s some hope that Toronto won’t make him pay dearly for it, as the surging Blue Jays have been pretty mediocre against lefties in May. Baltimore’s been boss against lefties this month, though, with a 122 wRC+ that’s among the league’s best over that span. The parks and power hitters in play here have me hesitating, but deep-leaguers could look to Montgomery as a high-risk streamer this week.
27. Mike Clevinger (5/30 OAK, 6/4 @KC)
The week’s ultimate risk/reward play, Clevinger could rack up the punch-outs, or he could get pounded into oblivion, and with a near-six BB/9 and a 0% HR/FB rate that’s got plenty of room to regress, there’s a chance those two paths aren’t mutually exclusive. Intriguing matchups notwithstanding, the promising youngster is for desperate thrill-seekers only.
28. Daniel Norris (5/29 @KC, 6/4 CWS)
Streaming against the Royals is like shooting fish in a barrel, but be careful of that White Sox start, as Chicago has been thriving against lefties over the past month. Norris’ 5.32 ERA in 22 home innings doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either. Owners in a pinch can plug the young lefty in and hope the good outweighs the bad here.
29. Jason Hammel (5/29 DET, 6/4 CLE)
Hammel’s been slightly better at home this year, but that’s damning with faint praise, with the veteran still getting clocked for a 5.61 ERA even at the homer-suppressing Kaufmann Stadium. Cleveland and Detroit are both sub-par against righties on the month, but I’m still reticent to start Hammel in anything but the deepest of leagues.
PERSONA NON-GRATA
30. Robert Gsellman (5/29 MIL, 6/3 PIT)
A home date against the Pirates is tempting indeed, but I’m not all that keen to start a guy averaging three-plus walks per nine against the Brewers, especially one who doesn’t seem to have much swinging strike upside.
31. Ricky Nolasco (5/29 ATL, 6/3 MIN)
Nolasco has a 4.37 ERA even with an 87.5% left on base rate, while the Twins have been the most productive offense against righties over the last month. Have to pass here.
32. Chris Tillman (5/30 NYY, 6/4 BOS)
Velocity readings show the former Orioles ace is still working up to speed, while his walks-per-nine approach four across 20-plus innings. Coming to town are two offenses that have already seen plenty of Tillman and that have been plenty productive against righties on the month. I’m allergic to Tillman until further notice.
33. Zach Davies (5/30 @NYM, 6/4 LAD)
The would-be Milwaukee breakout has instead broken down, with his walk rate nearly doubling and his homers-per-nine climbing past one and a half. With the Mets and Dodgers both low-key productive against righties over the past month, this young Brewer is a firm stay-away.
34. Trevor Williams (5/29 ARI, 6/4 @NYM)
Williams shows a run difference between his 5.93 ERA and 4.91 FIP, and there’s certainly some push back coming on that 58-percent strand rate. But I’m not going out of my way to start these middling skills against the D-backs, even at home, with Arizona punishing righties for a 140 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
35. Kyle Gibson (5/30 HOU, 6/4 @LAA)
Career highs in walk rate and hard-hit rate make Gibson hard to stomach outside of the deepest of leagues, especially lined up to face an Astros team that’s been super productive against righties.
36. Samuel Gaviglio (5/29 @COL, 6/3 TB)
37. Ariel Miranda (5/30 @COL, 6/4 TB)
Young arms with above-average walk rates making their Coors Field debuts. One or both might make up for it against the whiff-happy Rays, but I’m not suffering through the Colorado starts to find out.
38. Jarred Cosart (5/29 CHC, 6/4 COL)
Don’t let the pair of home starts fool you–Cosart is one of the league’s least-fantasy-relevant regulars, with a walk rate that far exceeds his strikeout rate and an ERA that touches the mid-fours despite the fact that he hasn’t given up a homer in four starts. Expect Cozart’s homer luck to change as the class of the NL comes to town this week.
39. Lisalverto Bonilla (5/29 @TOR, 6/4 ATL)
Maybe you play in a league that rewards you for pitcher walks? If not, keep Bonilla’s four-plus BB/9 as far away from your roster as possible.
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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.
