Here is this week’s two-start pitcher rankings. Keep in mind that rotations constantly change, whether it be due to weather, injury, or just plain suckitude. There’s one situation that hasn’t been resolved at the time I’m writing this. The Toronto Blue Jays currently have TBD slotted in for Monday. That could mean they call up someone like Casey Lawrence or shuffle their rotation around. Enjoy and good luck this week!

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ALL SYSTEMS GO

1) Max Scherzer (5/9 @BAL, 5/14 PHI)
BAL is 20th in wOBA and 13th in strikeouts against RHP. PHI is 19th in wOBA and 7th in strikeouts. It’s Max Scherzer. Not much needs to be said. The only thing I noticed was that he’s been much better on the road (.216 wOBA vs .333 at home).

2) Gio Gonzalez (5/8 @BAL, 5/13 PHI)
BAL is 23rd in wOBA and 1st in strikeouts against LHP. PHI is 6th in wOBA and 14th in strikeouts. Gio has a 7.98 K/9, but a 4.23 BB/9. The xFIP is 4.36 compared to the 1.64 ERA, though. Righties have been better than lefties, but he’s still holding righties to a .298 wOBA. I love the matchup with BAL and, while the matchup with PHI doesn’t look great on paper, I’m good with rolling Gio out there, especially since the game is in Washington.

3) Jacob deGrom (5/8 SF, 5/14 @MIL)
SF is 29th in wOBA and 24th in strikeouts. MIL is 17th in wOBA and 3rd in strikeouts. deGrom’s last start did not go well; five earned runs, five walks, and five strikeouts in five innings. The numerologists out there must be going bonkers right now. Looking at the numbers, he’s struggled a bit on the road. All four home runs allowed have been on the road and 12 of the 15 earned runs as well. That MIL matchup is a tough one on the road, as the Brewers have a ton of power. With that said, they swing and miss a ton, so I like the upside.

TOUGH SLEDDING

4) Ivan Nova (5/9 @LAD, 5/14 @ARI)
LAD is 8th in wOBA and 18th in strikeouts against RHP. ARI is 4th in wOBA and 6th in strikeouts. Nova is not going to strike out many batters, but he’s also not going to issue free passes. He’s all about inducing ground balls. The 1.50 ERA and .224 BABIP will probably come up, but even when it does, he’s still going to be a very good pitcher. He’s been lights out on the road (.150 wOBA).

5) Carlos Martinez (5/8 @MIA, 5/14 CHC)
MIA is 23rd in wOBA and 21st in strikeouts against RHP. CHC is 14th in wOBA and 10th in strikeouts. Martinez throws high-90s, which helps him achieve a 10.75 K/9 and 11.8% swinging strike rate. He is prone to walking batters, though (3.75 BB/9). Righties have hit him a little better than lefties, but not by much. He is also better at home. In his career, he has a 5.21 ERA in three starts against MIA and a 4.17 ERA in 10 starts against CHC.

6) Robbie Ray (5/9 DET, 5/14 PIT)
Ray is just coming off a game in which he dominated the Washington Nationals (6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 10 SO). Very impressive, as the Nationals were the best team in wOBA against LHP. DET is 20th in wOBA and 7th in strikeouts against LHP. PIT is 9th in wOBA and 19th in strikeouts. Ray has a 12.14 K/9 and 13% swinging strike rate. Nasty. He does walk a lot of batters (4.46), though, which makes him prone to the blow up. The DET matchup looks good on paper, but they do have a lot of righty power. The game will also be in Arizona, where Ray has not been as good (.349 wOBA vs .248 on the road). I love Ray as a pitcher, but I think both matchups are tough next week, especially since both will be at home.

7) Drew Pomeranz (5/9 @MIL, 5/14 TB)
MIL is 2nd in wOBA and 5th in strikeouts against LHP. TB is 16th in wOBA and 2nd in strikeouts. Pomeranz has an 11.33 K/9 and 3 BB/9. He is allowing a 33% hard contact rate and swinging strike rate is only 9%. He’s neutralized righties this year, but lefties have mashed him. Granted, he’s only faced 25 lefties while matching up against 91 righties. There is no discernible difference between home and road starts.

8) Charlie Morton (5/9 ATL, 5/14 @NYY)
ATL is 11th in wOBA and 26th in strikeouts against RHP. NYY is 1st in wOBA and 17th in strikeouts. Morton has been great to start the season. 10.32 K/9 with a 2.65 BB/9. Much has been made about the increase in fastball velocity, which is averaging 96 mph now. A big jump from the 92 mph from last year. The swinging strike rate is at 10%, but he’s allowing 40% hard contact rate. The matchups next week are tough. If he can navigate through them, then I guess Morton is officially in stud category. He’s been bad on the road and righties have destroyed him. Guess where he has to face Hank Aaron Judge next week?

9) Masahiro Tanaka (5/8 @CIN, 5/14 HOU)
CIN is 10th in wOBA and 22nd in strikeouts against RHP. HOU is 3rd in wOBA and 28th in strikeouts. Tanaka only has a 6.44 K/9, but a 12% swinging strike rate. He’s been good against lefties, but righties have been mashing him (.397 wOBA). Numbers are the same for home and away starts.

10) Marcus Stroman (5/9 CLE, 5/14 SEA)
CLE is 5th in wOBA and 15th in strikeouts against RHP. SEA is 12th in wOBA and 14th in strikeouts. Keep in mind that Stroman left his last start early due to arm soreness. On the season, he has a 6.86 K/9 with an 8.7% swinging strike rate. Stroman is all about the ground ball, as he induces one 60% of the time. Righties are much better against him. The numbers are the same on the road as they are at home.

11) Justin Verlander (5/9 @ARI, 5/14 @LAA)
ARI is 4th in wOBA and 6th in strikeouts against RHP. LAA is 26th in wOBA and 16th in strikeouts. Verlander’s K/9 is down from last season and walks are way up. He’s also allowing a ton more hard contact and the swinging strike rate is at 7%. That number was 12% last year. Lefties have been more successful against him and he’s been much better at home. Unfortunately, both starts are on the road next week, where he’s allowing a .394 wOBA.

12) Jake Arrieta (5/8 @COL, 5/14 @STL)
Coors Field. Enough said. Just for s–ts and giggles, I took a look at Arrieta’s previous visits to Colorado. One game, 13 hits (one home run), nine earned runs, and three strikeouts in five innings. At least he didn’t issue a free pass. STL is 9th in wOBA and 19th in strikeouts.

MEH

13) Jameson Taillon (5/8 @LAD, 5/13 @ARI)
LAD is 8th in wOBA and 18th in strikeouts against RHP. ARI is 4th in wOBA and 6th in strikeouts. Taillon has a 7.64 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9. The swinging strike rate is 8.5%, but the ground ball rate is 53%. Righties have been much better against Taillon and he’s been a little worse on the road.

14) A.J. Griffin (5/9 @SD, 5/14 OAK)
SD is 25th in wOBA and 2nd in strikeouts against RHP. OAK is 24th in wOBA and 5th in strikeouts. Griffin has a 9.39 K/9 with a 9.6% swinging strike rate. That’s the good. The bad? 48.7% hard contact rate with a .167 BABIP. Lefties have had success against him (.343 wOBA), but he’s totally neutered righties (.207 wOBA). He’s dominated on the road but has struggled at home. The matchup with SD is really juicy, one that should be very productive. That OAK matchup kind of scares me, though. Regression is coming. It’s only a matter of when, not if.

15) Hisashi Iwakuma (5/9 @PHI, 5/14 @TOR)
PHI is 19th in wOBA and 7th in strikeouts against RHP. TOR is 27th in wOBA and 9th in strikeouts. The Blue Jays are still bad against righties, but they have been better lately. Iwakuma has a 4.65 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, and 2.03 HR/9. He’s allowing a 37% hard contact rate. Lefties mash him (.463 wOBA). He has been very good on the road, though (.313 wOBA vs .417 at home).

16) Matt Andriese (5/9 KC, 5/14 @BOS)
KC is 28th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeouts against RHP. BOS is 18th in wOBA and 29th in strikeouts. Andriese has a decent 9.7% swinging strike rate, but he allows a hard contact rate of 41%. The K/9 is 7.07 and BB/9 is 3.21. Righties have been much better against him (.367 wOBA vs .295 against lefties). He’s also been a little better on the road.

17) Nate Karns (5/8 @TB, 5/13 BAL)
TB is 13th in wOBA and 1st in strikeouts against RHP. BAL is 20th in wOBA and 13th in strikeouts. Karns is an okay pitcher. 8.07 K/9 with a 3.10 BB/9. The swinging strike rate is 11%. He likes to induce ground balls, but when pitches are left up in the zone, they usually end up as home runs. So far, he’s been lights out at home and very susceptible on the road.

18) Ian Kennedy (5/9 @TB, 5/14 BAL)
TB is 13th in wOBA and 1st in strikeouts against RHP. BAL is 20th in wOBA and 13th in strikeouts. Kennedy has an 8.04 K/9 but 4.02 BB/9. Unlike Karns, Kennedy is a flyball pitcher. He’s been getting very lucky, as the HR/9 is only 0.86 and BABIP is .184. Expect that 2.30 ERA to climb soon. EDIT: As I’m writing this, Kennedy was pulled from his start. It’s a Grade 1 hamstring strain, so he’s likely to miss at least one of his starts, if not both.

19) Adam Conley (5/8 STL, 5/14 ATL)
STL is 27th in wOBA and 8th in strikeouts against LHP. ATL is 18th in wOBA and 22nd in strikeouts. Conley has a 7.56 K/9 and 4.69 WHIP. He does have an 11% swinging strike rate but allows a 36% hard contact rate. Righties have more success against him and he’s been much better on the road (.427 wOBA at home vs .282 on the road).

20) Jeff Samardzija (5/9 @NYM, 5/14 CIN)
NYM is 22nd in wOBA and 25th in strikeouts against RHP. CIN is 10th in wOBA and 22nd in strikeouts. Samardzija has a 10.53 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9. He just dominated the Dodgers, but I can never trust Samardzija. Just a personal bias on my part. The xFIP is 2.97, so that 5.03 ERA could come down. In addition, he has a low 60% strand rate. He’s been very good against righties, but lefties have been teeing off (.409 wOBA). He’s also been a little better at home, which makes sense as AT&T Park is very friendly for pitchers.

21) Blake Snell (5/8 KC, 5/13 @BOS)
KC is 30th in wOBA and 9th in strikeouts. BOS is 17th in wOBA and 30th in strikeouts. Snell has a 7.76 K/9, but 6.03 BB/9. That’s probably not a good combo, especially against a patient Red Sox squad. Righties have hit Snell better and he’s been slightly better on the road. All four home runs he’s allowed have been at home.

22) Hector Santiago (5/9 @CWS, 5/14 @CLE)
CWS is 5th in wOBA and 29th in strikeouts against LHP. CLE is 24th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeouts. Santiago has a 6.31 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9. Swinging strike rate is 9%. He also gives up a lot of fly balls (49%) and 36% hard contact rate. The HR/FB rate is only 0.76, so expect some of those fly balls to start leaving the yard. Lefties are absolutely mashing him (.505 wOBA). The numbers are similar at home and on the road.

23) Sonny Gray (5/8 LAA, 5/14 @TEX)
LAA is 26th in wOBA and 16th in strikeouts. TEX is 16th in wOBA and 8th in strikeouts. Gray has made one start this season against MIN. He allowed three home runs in that game, with two against righties. Facing the Angels in cavernous Oakland could help, but there’s that Mike Trout fella.

24) Matt Moore (5/8 @NYM, 5/13 CIN)
NYM is 8th in wOBA and 25th in strikeouts against LHP. CIN is 10th in wOBA and 15th in strikeouts. Moore is coming off a beatdown from the Dodgers; 3 1/3 innings, nine earned runs, five walks, and three strikeouts. On the season, he has a 7.56 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, and has a 41% hard contact rate. Righties have had success against him, but lefties have been mashing him (.494 wOBA). He’s been very good at home, but horrendous on the road (.511 wOBA).

25) Ricky Nolasco (5/8 @OAK, 5/13 DET)
OAK is 24th in wOBA and 5th in strikeouts against RHP. DET is 7th in wOBA and 12th in strikeouts. Nolasco has a 7.44 K/9 and 9% swinging strike rate, which are okay. The 1.93 BB/9 is decent, but he’s been giving up a ton of fly balls, home runs, and hard contact. In addition, righties have been crushing him (.612 SLG vs .476 against lefties). That matchup with DET looks pretty bad. Nolasco has been much better at home, though, and been getting crushed on the road. On paper, the OAK matchup looks good at first glance, but I’d have some reservations.

26) Alex Wood (5/8 PIT, 5/13 @COL)
PIT is 9th in wOBA and 19th in strikeouts against LHP. COL is 7th in wOBA and 3rd in strikeouts. Wood is coming off a game in which he struck out eight, but allowed seven hits and four earned runs. He provides some strikeout potential, but the matchups are not favorable next week.

SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE?

27) Nick Martinez (5/8 @SD, 5/13 OAK)
SD is 25th in wOBA and 2nd in strikeouts against RHP. OAK is 24th in wOBA and 5th in strikeouts. The matchups are good on paper. Unfortunately, Martinez is not. 4.91 K/9 and 2.45 HR/9. He’s also been bad on the road (.526 wOBA).

28) Alex Meyer (5/9 @OAK, 5/14 DET)
OAK is 24th in wOBA and 5th in strikeouts against RHP. DET is 7th in wOBA and 12th in strikeouts. Meyer only has six innings of major league experience. He’s shown he can strike guys out, but he walks a ton of batters. He has a three-pitch arsenal; fastball, curveball, and change. Velocity on the fastball is mid-to-upper 90s. With that said, he still has difficulty missing bats. It would be tough to trust Meyer in any matchup right now.

29) Kevin Gausman (5/8 WAS, 5/13 @KC)
WAS is second in wOBA and 27th in strikeouts against RHP. KC is 28th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeouts. The rankings should get better for both teams after next week, as Gausman has been dreadful. Both the K/9 and BB/9 are at 5. The BABIP is an elevated .340, so there is some hope for positive regression, but I’m not holding my breath. He’s been equally bad, both on the road and at home. He’s been bad against lefties, but worse against righties.

30) Ubaldo Jimenez (5/9 WAS, 5/14 @KC)
WAS is 2nd in wOBA and 27th in strikeouts against RHP. KC is 28th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeouts. Gausman had a 5 for both K/9 and BB/9. Jimenez has a 6 for both K/9 and BB/9. What is up with Baltimore pitchers? That’s kind of freaky if you ask me. Jimenez is giving up a ton of hard contact (33%) and the swinging strike rate is a paltry 6%. He’s been getting mashed at home. Look who comes into town next week.

31) Wily Peralta (5/9 BOS, 5/14 NYM)
BOS is 18th in wOBA and 29th in strikeouts. NYM is 22nd in wOBA and 25th in strikeouts. Peralta has a 7.76 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9. He’s also susceptible to the long ball. The swinging strike rate is only 7% and he’s allowing hard contact 33% of the time. Lefties absolutely have been crushing him (.440 wOBA) and he’s been very, very bad at home (.440 wOBA). Fire up those Red Sox and Mets stacks next week.

32) Mike Pelfrey (5/9 MIN, 5/14 SD)
Twins are 6th in wOBA and 2oth in strikeouts against RHP. SD is 25th in wOBA and 2nd in strikeouts. The SD matchup is a juicy one, but it’s Mike Pelfrey. His K/9 (2.51) is lower than his BB/9 (3.77). I didn’t think that was even possible. He has a swinging strike rate of 6%. Righties have crushed him (.386 wOBA vs .260 against lefties) and he’s been slightly better at home than on the road, but that’s not saying much.

33) Rookie Davis (5/9 NYY, 5/14 @SF)
He gets to throw BP to Hank Aaron Judge next week. Yipee!! NYY is 1st in wOBA and 17th in strikeouts against RHP. SF is 29th in wOBA and 24th in strikeouts. The K/9 and BB/9 are both at 6. What is up with all these pitchers with idential walk and strikeout rates? Crazy I tell ya! Swinging strike rate is 7%. Both righties and lefties crush him and, not surprisingly, he’s been bad both at home and on the road.

34) Jered Weaver (5/8 TEX, 5/13 @CWS)
TEX is 16th in wOBA and 8th in strikeouts against RHP. CWS is 30th in wOBA and 4th in strikeouts. It’s really amazing that Weaver is still a professional pitcher. He throws mid-80s and has a looping slider. With that said, he does still have an 8% swinging strike rate, so props to him. All of that is nice, but he gives up 3.31 HR/9. Righties absolutely destroy him (.458 wOBA). He’s been bad on the road, but horrendous at home.

35) Antonio Senzatela (5/8 CHC, 5/13 LAD)
CHC is 14th in wOBA and 10th in strikeouts against RHP. LAD is 8th in wOBA and 18th in strikeouts. Senzatela is not going to strike batters out. Instead he’s all about inducing soft contact. He’s actually been good at home (.302 wOBA vs .283 on the road), but it would be hard to trust him with the Cubs and Dodgers coming into town.

36) Kyle Freeland (5/9 CHC, 5/14 LAD)
CHC is 3rd in wOBA and 11th in strikeouts against LHP. LAD is 22nd in wOBA and 20th in strikeouts. Freeland is also a ground-ball generating machine, 3.69 GB/FB, which is an insane number. While the Dodgers have been dreadful against LHP for a while now, they did just destroy Matt Moore. Getting Franklin Gutierrez back bolsters their prowess against lefties.

37) Luis Perdomo (5/9 TEX, 5/14 @CWS)
TEX is 16th in wOBA and 8th in strikeouts against RHP. CWS is 30th in wOBA and 4th in strikeouts. Perdomo last pitched in the Mexican League back in 2014. He had an 8.53 ERA. Any more questions?

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