This is the first edition of Batted Ball Profiles, a monthly article where I’ll — you guessed it — go through the batted ball profiles of various players, and see what their fantasy value looks like moving forward. You can learn a lot about a player if you study things like how often they’re making hard contact, whether they’re hitting fly balls or ground balls, and if they’re getting lucky with home runs.
Sound like fun? Great! Let’s begin.
Note: Batted ball data reflect numbers going into Sunday’s contests.
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Trust the Hot Start?
Aaron Judge, Ryan Zimmerman, and Eric Thames
Here are some unexpected names atop the home run leaderboard! We all knew Judge (13 home runs) and Thames (11) had power potential, and Zimmerman (13) has plenty of past success, but even the most optimistic fans or analysts didn’t expect these hot starts. But how much can we expect these guys to keep it up?
One thing the three have in common is an unsustainably high HR/FB rate. In 2016, the highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters was 28.8% (Ryan Braun), and the rate for the leader in home runs was 24.6% (Mark Trumbo). If we go all the way back to the year 2002 — the furthest FanGraphs’ batted ball data goes — the highest HR/FB belongs to Ryan Howard in 2006, who had a 39.5% rate. He hit a ho-hum 58 bombs that year.
Given we can’t reasonably predict any of these guys to hit nearly 60 homers, it’s safe to say that their rates of 50.0% (Judge), 39.4% (Zimmerman), and 34.4% (Thames) should all regress as we get deeper into the season. They also all possess hard-hit rates above 45%, which is what some guy named David Ortiz did to lead the league last year (45.9%). Expect regression in that department too.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though, because they’re all getting lift on the ball with regularity, so it’s not like the homers will completely fall off. Zimmerman is hitting far fewer groundballs this season (37.6% rate), the lowest rate of his career. The last time he dipped below 40% was in 2009, when he slugged a career-high 33 home runs.
Also, Judge and Zimmerman both have elite average exit velocities on fly balls and line drives (101.6 mph and 99.9 mph, respectively), and are the top two in Barrels. Thames trails them, but still has a very respectable 94.3 mph.
Between Zimmerman’s injury history, and the lack of much history at all for Judge and Thames, it may be difficult to sell-high on their early home run barrages. But the trio show enough positives that even with regression it could be a fun ride ahead for these early season darlings.
Everything Will Be Fine
It’s unlikely that you’re quite panicking yet if you own Betts, but you might be concerned by the lack of power so far. We’re over a month into the season, and he has just three homers and a .162 isolated power (.216 last year). That’s not what you signed up for when you spent an early pick on him. His batted ball profile suggests he’ll be fine, though. His hard-hit rate (34.4%) is up a hair from 2016, and his fly-ball rate (41.7%) is in line with his career average. But most notably, before Sunday’s home run, his HR/FB rate was a measly 5.0% — way below last year’s 13.2%, and his 10.1% career rate. Positive regression is almost certainly coming, and the home runs should start flying in short order.
Power hasn’t been an issue for Machado, as exhibited by his .254 isolated power and eight home runs, but what’s with the .237 batting average? Sound the alarms! No, in reality there is zero reason to panic about Machado. He has an absurd 48.9% hard-hit rate, and although his strikeout rate is higher than last year (18.6%), and his contact rate has dropped a little (76.4%), it’s hardly a cause for major concern. Instead, this is mostly the result of a terribly unlucky .229 BABIP. He’s traded some line drives (15.9%) for fly balls (45.5%), which will dock his BABIP a few points, but hardly to this degree. Plus, are we really going to complain if this guy hits more fly balls? The average will rise, and so will Machado’s numbers.
This Fly Ball Thing is Pretty Fun
Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, and Josh Harrison
Speaking of fly balls, these three may not seem to have much in common on the surface, but this season they’ve joined the growing ranks of players hitting more fly balls. And judging from the results, I think they’re enjoying it.
In 2016, Lindor became a solid all-around contributor in fantasy, but wasn’t big on power with 15 home runs. This year, he’s more than halfway there with eight jacks already. His hard-hit rate is way up (36.7%), and his fly-ball rate has skyrocketed from 28.4% to 46.4%. The new approach hasn’t had any noticeable impact on his strikeout rate either, which is higher than last year, but still sits at a pretty 15.3%. Lindor broke out last year, but he might be taking things to a whole different level with this newfound power stroke. Giddy up.
Alonso and Harrison are obviously nowhere near the same stratosphere as Lindor, but they’ve improved their stocks nicely as well. I went into detail about Alonso last week, and Harrison is a very similar case. Neither had ever been particularly remarkable in fantasy — dare I say boring — and much of that had to do with their minimal home run power. Now they both have fly-ball rates north of 49%, good for top 12 among qualified hitters, and hitting bombs more often than they’ve ever done before. Alonso has nine homers, already matching his career high, and Harrison has five, surpassing the four he had last season. Like Lindor, their hard-hit rates have improved immensely, with Alonso at 40.0% and Harrison at 34.5%. Expectations need to be held in check because their HR/FB rates are well above their career averages, but with their improved home run potential, they should have mixed league value until further notice.
Tearing up the Grass
Xander Bogaerts and D.J. LeMahieu
On the other side of the spectrum, we have two individuals who are hitting grounders at extreme levels.
LeMahieu was a pleasant surprise in 2016, leading the league in batting average (.348), scoring a bunch of runs (104), and providing just enough homers (11) and stolen bases (11) to be one of the most valuable fantasy second basemen. However, early returns in 2017 demonstrate why it’s difficult to rely on a player who derived most of his value from a high batting average. So far, he’s batting .282 with just one home run and one stolen base. His ground-ball rate is up to 59.4%, and his minuscule 16.8% fly-ball rate is the lowest among qualified hitters. His 26.7% hard-hit rate pales in comparison to last year’s 35.2%. Due to his lack of fly balls and hard contact, he’ll almost certainly fall short of repeating double-digit home runs. And he’s unlikely to make up for that with speed — he’s only reached 20-plus stolen bases once in his career.
That said, LeMahieu plays half his games in Coors, and his strikeout rate remains low (12.1%), so his numbers should improve by default. Also, while his .320 BABIP is above league average, it’s low by his career standards (.350), so the average could rise. Still, it’s fair to wonder if 2016 was a career year. He may revert to the average fantasy asset he was in years past.
While Lindor has taken off in the power department, Bogaerts seems to be trending in the opposite direction. Thus far he’s taken a contact-heavy approach, with a 58.6% ground-ball rate to go with an improved strikeout rate (10.4%) and contact rate (86.2%). It’s resulted in a .337 average, but a .051 isolated power, 25.3% hard-hit rate, and zero home runs. His .379 BABIP is high, but he does have a career .339 BABIP, so it’s not entirely luck.
Is this the new Bogaerts? Or should I say old Bogaerts? He’s beginning to look a lot like the 2015 version, who was still plenty useful with a .320 average, but only hit seven homers. That’s not exactly what fantasy owners expected when they drafted Bogaerts, who had 21 home runs in 2016. But for now, we may need to change our expectations of what Bogaerts is, and will be, this year. In a potent Red Sox offense, the counting stats should be fine, but he’s starting to look a lot more like last year’s LeMahieu than this year’s Lindor.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
