As fantasy baseball becomes more and more competitive, the use of advanced analytics is becoming more important. With the surge in taking the analysis of the game above and beyond, much of the data being collected by Major League Baseball is available to the public. One such resource is Baseball Savant, the website dedicated to quantifying and presenting StatCast in an easy-to-use format for fans.

Here, we will use StatCast’s data for pitch velocity to see if we can sift through the numbers and find trends with dipping velocity or inconsistencies which may explain slow starts or injuries to players who’ve had recent success in the majors but have struggled early on in the 2017 season.

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Explanation

All data collected in this series of velocity articles is available at Baseball Savant. Baseball Savant displays useful information collected by StatCast, organized into easy-to-use charts and graphs for individual players. For the purposes of this article, the abbreviations being used are as follows: FF – four-seam fastball, FT – two-seam fastball, FC – cut fastball, CH – change-up, SL – slider, CU – curveball.

Roberto Osuna (RP – TOR)

 
After getting rocked in the World Baseball Classic, it was obvious that Osuna was not at 100% entering the MLB season. Shortly before Opening Day, the Blue Jays placed their reliever on the 10-Day DL with a cervical spasm in his neck. The injury sounded much worse than it was, and Osuna returned by the third series of the season, but struggled, recording three blown saves before recording his second save.

A neck injury is always scary, and when someone is built as thick as Osuna is, much of his strength comes from his lower body, but the back and neck still need stability to reach full effort, which is evidenced by his dropping four-seam and two-seam velocities coming into the Month of May. Could this be a result of the neck injury? Perhaps, but in watching Osuna, he’s shown little in the way of physical struggles this season.

What does stick out is the gradual uptick in velocity of his change-up, which he doesn’t use much (7%). This by itself isn’t a huge concern, but it is less than ideal. The problem here lies with the also down-trending fastball velocities. He’s lost about 1.61 MPH from his four-seam since last season, which doesn’t sound like much, but when you’re a power arm out of the bullpen to throw the ball past batters, it can become a problem. The same is true for the two-seam, which lost 1.16 MPH as well.

This all might be a remnant of Osuna’s neck injury this spring, but if this weekend’s series versus Tampa Bay was any indication (two saves, one hit, two strikeouts), Osuna might be back to normal soon enough.

Jordan Zimmermann (SP – Detroit)

 
The move from the ultra-competitive NL East to the friendly confines of the AL Central was supposed to be a plus for Zimmermann’s fantasy owners. After too many injuries to list in this article in 2016, Zimmermann has had little success as a Detroit Tiger, posting a 12-8 record with a 5.14 ERA over 133 innings, seeing rises in his H/9 (9.1 to 10.4) and BB/9 (1.7 to 2.4). Across the board, Zimmermann’s velocity has been relatively consistent – except for one major difference.

In 2015 with the Nationals, Zimmermann averaged 93.32 MPH on his four-seam fastball, balanced with an 87.78 change-up and 87.92 slider. That’s quite good. Since signing with Detroit, though, that four-seam has lost a total of 1.36 MPH. That’s a pretty substantial drop in velocity, and something a pitcher can usually compensate for when young or when they throw more than 94 MPH. Zimmermann is now 30 and doesn’t quite have the strength to reach back and find that extra velocity anymore.

Sam Dyson (RP – TEX)

 
Dyson is fresh off the disabled list with a bad case of getting lit up (and a “hand injury”) and has already lost his grasp on the closer role in Texas. Dyson is a good example of inconsistent velocity leading to inconsistent results. Prior to 2015, Dyson was a mediocre reliever. The biggest change we can see in his velocities since then is his slider, as he was throwing it significantly harder in 2015. Dyson threw all of his pitches harder in 2015 (four-seam +.68 MPH, two-seam +1.57 MPH), but the +7.45 MPH he added to his slider made a huge difference – yet Dyson still manages to store the pitch away for limited use.

In 2016 that velocity dropped, losing .42 MPH on the two-seam and 1.76 MPH on the slider, which dropped off even more in 2017, down 3.13 MPH down to 87.12 MPH this season, where Dyson has posted an abysmal 0-3 record and a 17.18 ERA. However, he has pitched three innings since returning from the DL, allowing one earned run on two hits (no strikeouts.) The strange thing is Dyson just isn’t throwing his slider in 2017, potentially allowing batters to look for a fastball which has lost much of its allure.

Francisco Rodriguez (RP – DET)

 
There’s no mystery behind Rodriguez’s decline. At the age of 35, he’s the oldest closer in the majors and managed six saves in April while somehow posting a -0.2 bWAR and a 5.59 ERA over just 9 2/3 innings pitched. With age, there’s often a drop in velocity, and Rodriguez is no exception. He’s getting the job done right now, but the question is; for how long?

Since 2015, Rodriguez has seen drops in velocity for nearly every pitch he’s throwing at a high rate, most notably the four-seam fastball (-1.97 MPH), two-seam fastball (-1.74 MPH) and the curveball (-1.13 MPH). The curve ball is not worrisome, but a closer throwing in the upper-80’s is a dangerous game for manager Brad Ausmus to play.

To make matters worse, Rodriguez’s change-up, which has now become his most-used pitch (41%) has seen an increase in velocity of +.3 MPH since 2015. This lack of separation between the fastballs and change-up – roughly 4.5 MPH – is not going to get the job done, especially with the amount of usage it receives.

Have a pitcher who’s velocity you’re concerned with? Leave a comment below.

Roy Widrig is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Roy, check out his archive and follow him @rolewiii.