Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.

Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters. As I have begun to exhaust all the new interesting rookies, I will be revisiting some of the more impactful performers over the course of the season.

All stats are typically current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant.

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Quick Updates

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD)
Since last week’s Rookie Report, which highlighted Bellinger’s potential and his unclear path to playing time, Adrian Gonzalez was placed on the DL with an elbow injury. Oh, and Bellinger has continued to destroy baseballs to the tune of an 1.199 OPS. Unless he goes truly ice cold, the Dodgers will be forced to keep him in the major league lineup.

Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
In the very first Rookie Report of the season, I expressed surprise at Judge’s success given his alarming contact issues in his debut last year. Most of the positive statistical trends I cited in Judge’s early work have continued. At this point, it’s difficult to continue to label Judge as a sell high. He probably won’t maintain a 1.183 OPS, but a mark solidly in the .800-.900 range seems feasible. The hype has gone far, for sure, but it’s becoming harder and harder to doubt him the longer he continues to rake.

Waxing

Matt Davidson (3B/DH – CWS)
Despite still technically holding rookie status, Davidson actually made his major league debut in 2013 with 87 plate appearances for Arizona as a 22-year-old. He did not record another major league PA until last year when he got precisely two. Add in 67 PAs this year, and Davidson has been an above-average hitter in the majors (139 wRC+). Davidson appears to be a classic high strikeout player selling out for power. Among the 305 hitters with more than 50 PAs this season, Davidson’s 59% FB% is the eighth highest. He has ridden his air balls to an .887 OPS with five HR this year. A 23.1% Barrels per batted-ball rate, sandwiched between Joey Gallo and Khris Davis, suggest he has not gotten lucky with his five HR or .311 isolated slugging (ISO). Like many young sluggers, including Gallo and Davis, Davidson’s problem is strikeouts. His current .262 batting average is palatable, but his 34.3% K% and .239 expected batting average (xBA) suggest that leaner times are ahead for Davidson. His playing time is also working against his fantasy value as he has received slightly over half the plate appearances of a full-time regular, and as a right-handed hitter, his natural platoon role is on the short side. Despite the power, Davidson can be safely ignored in all but deep daily lineup move leagues.

Mpho’ (Gift) Ngoepe (IF – PIT)
Ngoepe is one of this season’s best early stories. His backstory and path to becoming the first African-born player in the majors are well-documented. Injuries to the Pirates’ David Freese and Adam Frazier, as well as the continued absence of Jung Ho Kang earned Ngoepe the call-up in late April. He has delivered strong results in 30 plate appearances, slashing .292/.433/.417 with a 20% BB% and 33.3% K%. Eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS depending on league platform and settings, Ngoepe may be a tempting pickup for desperate owners, despite his utility role. However, his .213 xBA and long, mediocre minor league history do not paint an optimistic picture. His walk rate would seem to be a good sign, but a closer looks uncovers that his swing rate is third lowest out of 403 hitters with at least 20 PA. So it appears Ngoepe is simply working deep counts in an attempt to get on base. It has worked so far, but pitchers are quick to react to such tactics, and will likely adjust. Continue to root for Ngoepe as a fun player with a nice story, but don’t count on him to contribute in fantasy.

Albert Almora (OF – CHC)
Another part-time player, Almora has also shown promising results starting with a 47-game stint in 2016. This year, he has increased his walk rate to 8.3% and decreased his strikeout rate to 15.3%, both respectable marks. His decent contact skills have shown up so far in his .292 AVG, despite the fact that his xBA sits at a meager .231. He has hit two homers and holds a .151 ISO. His 90.3 average exit velocity on line drives and flyballs and his 3.7% Barrels per batted-ball are both in line with his power output so far, unspectacular. Almora is mainly starting against left-handed pitchers and getting a lot of other action late in games due to his defensive prowess. It will be difficult to tell how good a hitter Almora really is until he is exposed to everyday playing time. For the moment, his production is not good enough to be owned in many fantasy leagues given his part-time role.

Waning

Ty Blach (SP/RP – SF)
No qualified pitcher in the last 10 years has posted a K%-BB% below zero. At 3.05 BB/9, Ty Blach‘s walk rate is fine, but his 2.18 K/9 is astoundingly low. His 4.1% SwStk% would be the second lowest of any single season over the last decade, should he qualify and maintain the same rate. So, the writing is on the wall right? Especially when you factor in Blach’s 5.66 ERA, there doesn’t seem to be anything here. However, Blach’s minor league history suggests that he may be able to achieve moderate success despite his less than flashy skills. in his full seasons between Double-A and Triple-A, Blach has K/9 rates between five and six, and his BB/9 never exceeded 2.49. This season, Nearly all of the damage against Blach was done in his last start in Cincinnati. A pitcher of his high-contact profile is expected to have a few blowups in bad parks, but at home in San Francisco, Blach could be a bargain basement streaming option for owners in need of innings, that is, as long as he holds onto the fifth starter role.

Rookie Davis (SP – CIN)
Sooner or later, Davis had to be on the report that bears his name. Similar to Blach, Rookie has an uninspiring track record of strikeouts in the minors, which has carried over to a 7.11 K/9 rate this year. Unlike Blach, his walk rate is not fine, at 6.16 BB/9. This has all added up to a 7.58 ERA and 2.21 WHIP in 19 innings. Davis carries a .394 BABIP and 64.4% left on base rate, both of which should trend back toward league average, but not enough to offer much hope of success for the 24-year-old. His 8.4% SwStk% is nothing to write home about either. Tim Adleman is the Red’s best pitcher right now, so Rookie is likely to pile up innings in the rotation, pending the return of injured starters Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan. You should not have any of those innings on your fantasy team.

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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.