Bob Lung discusses the consistency of fantasy football running backs.

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The running back position had lost its stranglehold on fantasy owners over the years. The draft theory of grabbing two running backs in the first two rounds is still dead, but the Zero RB theory is also dead! As I have mentioned over the past couple of years, you can see the trends below regarding the decline of the super-stud backs (scoring based on PPR).

• 2002 – 2008 – Number of RBs over 300 points in one season = 31 running backs
• 2002 – 2008 – Number of RBs over 400 points in one season = 5 running backs
• 2015 – 2009 – Number of RBs over 300 points in one season = 20 running backs
• 2015 – 2009 – Number of RBs over 400 points in one season = ZERO running backs

But rejoice, 2016 was slightly better with our first running back (David Johnson) over 400 points since 2006 when LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson both did it! There were two running backs over 300 points with Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell. Bell earned over 300 points in only 12 games, so 400 points for Bell in a season certainly isn’t out of the question.

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So, as we head into 2017, the Zero RB approach has died before it really had life. Not that I believed in it anyway. The top three picks once again in fantasy drafts are running backs. Finding quality, consistent backs after that can be troublesome. This is where the Clutch Games system and consistency play a key role in identifying the consistently excellent backs that can help you win a championship versus the very good, yet inconsistent, backs that will cause you headaches.

A quick recap for those unfamiliar with the Clutch Games system.  The Head-to-Head (H2H) format in Fantasy Football leads to the need for consistency. Many teams have been near the top of their league in scoring, but miss the playoffs by one or two games. Many will call it “bad luck” and that’s partially true. Injuries to key players, bad weather, etc. are situations that affect our fantasy teams, but are uncontrollable. However, there is one aspect of fantasy football that you can control. The consistency of your team!

A Clutch Game is awarded to a player each week when they exceed the Clutch Game Factor in your league for that position. The more Clutch Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team.

Let’s look at those running backs ranked in their projected Tier for 2017 and show you their 2016 total points and consistency and where they ranked in those categories in 2016.

TIER ONE

 
This Tier consists of running backs that can obtain an Expected Clutch Rate of 80+% in 2017. All five of them accomplished this in 2016 and should be capable of doing it again. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are locks for the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in most fantasy drafts this year. Ezekiel Elliott concerns me a little bit as the Cowboys lost two offensive linemen in the offseason. I believe he’ll hit the 80% ECR, but I just believe he’ll slip a bit from last season. Melvin Gordon and LeSean McCoy should be late first-round picks after the top wide receivers come off the board. In summary, if you can get any of these backs in the first round, you are off to a good start.

TIER TWO

 
The running backs in this Tier (RB1B) have an Expected Clutch Rate of 67-80% in 2017. As you will note above, most of them earned this Clutch Rate in 2016. DeMarco Murray earned an 88% Clutch Rate last season, but I have a difficult time putting Murray in the RB1A range as long as Derrick Henry is healthy. Murray’s current ADP is RB10/pick 23. I believe he should be ranked higher than that as evident by his ranking of RB6 above.

The one back that scares me the most is Jay Ajayi. He ended the year ranked 11^th in total points last season, but his HORRID Clutch Rate of 47% screams “stay away!” There’s no reason to believe that’s going to change. Same offense, same head coach, etc. says he’s not consistent enough to be picked as an RB1. In fact, I would pick Frank Gore ahead of Ajayi, if he wasn’t so old! My thought is if you get to a draft day decision between Ajayi and a consistent wide receiver, take the receiver.

TIER THREE

 
This is a small section of RB2s, who are above the rest and have the ability to earn between an Expected Clutch Rate of 60-67% this year. On most other teams, Tevin Coleman is an RB1, but with Devonta Freeman in the way, Coleman maintains a solid RB2 status. His 62% Clutch Rate last year is amazing considering sharing time with Freeman. Isaiah Crowell is a forgotten man in fantasy because he plays for the Browns. However, a new and improved offensive line could improve his solid Clutch Rate of 56% in 2017. If he earns just one or two more Clutch Games, he’s in the RB1B Tier. C.J. Anderson is on the fence for me. He has the ability to up his game, but he needs to stay healthy and keep Jamaal Charles and co. from cutting into his carries.

TIER FOUR

 
This section has some running backs who prior to 2016 had some very consistent seasons. Mark Ingram and Danny Woodhead were once in the RB1 Tiers. Ingram would have been there again except the Saints signed Adrian Peterson. Woodhead is now in Baltimore and, with Kenneth Dixon out early due to suspension, could be a very consistent PPR back for the Ravens. His current ADP is RB37, so there’s a ton of value to be had. Mike Gillislee in New England this year also provides a ton of value. His current ADP is RB34. He is certainly worth a look come draft time. Latavius Murray and Carlos Hyde both earned over 60% last season, but their current situations are shaky at best.

Well, there are your Expected Clutch Rate rankings for running backs in 2017 with some 2016 data to support their cause.

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