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6 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

6 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

Hi all, and welcome to another edition of Burning Questions! As always, if you’ve got specific questions about your team(s), don’t hesitate to ask me on Twitter.

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Derek Fisher is getting called up. Is he a must-own?
Fisher has been having a big year at Triple-A Fresno, and now that he’s on his way to Houston, fantasy owners need to decide whether he’s a priority add. The first issue to consider is how long Fisher will be up — he’ll get starts while Josh Reddick recovers from a concussion, but the bigger question is whether he can steal a starting job away from Nori Aoki. The bet here is that he can, but only if he produces right away.

Fisher was batting .335 with 16 HRs and 13 SBs through 60 games in the (hitter-friendly) Pacific Coast League, so there’s no doubt he carries intriguing five-category fantasy potential. That said, while he’s cut down on his strikeout rate, Fisher doesn’t profile as a true .300 hitter at the Major League level, at least right away, and the fact he’s been caught stealing 10 times already this season suggests he may not see the green light often in Houston. Still, this is a very talented young hitter joining one of the best lineups in baseball, so he’s worth adding in the vast majority of leagues on the chance he’s able to deliver five-category production from day one.

Should we be worried about Francisco Lindor?
Lindor established himself as a clear-cut, top-five fantasy shortstop last season, and he looked the part through the first month-plus of this season, too. But he’s been in a massive tailspin of late, hitting just .150 with no homers or steals in June. While that’s likely just a short slump in a long season, Lindor is displaying some changes in his approach that are worth examining.

Lindor’s hard hit rate is up significantly and he’s also hitting a lot more fly balls, which helps explain why he’s already belted 12 HRs in 60 games after hitting just 15 in 158 last year. The fly ball approach should take a bit of a toll on his batting average, but his strikeout percentage is right in line with his career rate, so his .254 average so far this season has more to do with a matching .254 BABIP that is among the lowest in the league. However, his transformation to more of a slugger and run producer may explain why he has stolen just three bases and is on pace to fall well short of the 19 steals he put up last season.

At the end of the day, fantasy owners will gladly sacrifice some steals for home runs from Lindor as long as he’s able to hit somewhere in the .285-.290 range, which he should be able to do. Don’t fret over the temporary rough patch.

What do you do with Billy Hamilton?
Hamilton has long been one of the most polarizing players in fantasy baseball, and he’s done nothing to change that this year. With 28 stolen bases, he has more steals than 10 Major League teams, and a surprisingly potent Reds lineup has helped him put up a more-than-adequate 40 runs scored through 59 games. But he’s a complete non-factor in home runs and RBIs, and a drag in batting average, so when he’s not stealing bases he can really hurt fantasy teams.

Since May 31, Hamilton is 6-for-45 with three runs scored and zero home runs, RBIs, or steals, making him one of the least valuable fantasy hitters in all of baseball during that timeframe. And now he’s dealing with a thumb injury that could land him on the DL.

As a category specialist, Hamilton is less appealing in points leagues than category leagues, but even in a traditional roto format the best approach with Hamilton is to platoon him. Hamilton has been much better against right-handers than left-handers this year, so unless they are completely desperate for steals, his owners should only use him against righties and consider sitting him against all pitchers until he proves he’s healthy and starts getting on base again.

What’s going on with Marco Estrada?
Since joining the Blue Jays in 2015, Estrada has established himself as one of the most underrated fantasy pitchers in baseball, finishing as a top-30 starter in standard rotisserie leagues in both 2015 and 2016. This year appeared to be no different until his last three starts against the Yankees, Oakland, and Tampa Bay, in which he’s been crushed to the tune of 17 earned runs in 12⅔ innings.

But Estrada’s owners shouldn’t panic — his velocity is actually up a bit in June, and even in the three awful starts he had a solid 14 strikeouts to just three walks. His 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings for the season is his best ever and his 2.21 walks per nine innings are his lowest since 2013, so his bloated 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP on the year are most likely due to an unlucky .336 BABIP that is the 11th-highest in baseball. If Estrada continues to miss bats and limit walks, he could be even better than the 2015-2016 version as long as his BABIP regresses to the mean. He’s a good buy-low.

Is Rick Porcello droppable?
Speaking of unlucky batted ball profiles, Porcello’s .366 BABIP is the highest of all qualified starters. That, and a 69.4 percent left-on-base percentage that ranks 15th-worst among starters have left the reigning AL Cy Young winner with an awful 4.67 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Unfortunately, that subpar strand rate is right in line with Porcello’s career numbers, and the career-high hard contact and fly ball rates he’s allowing this year suggest that he hasn’t really been unlucky to give up a lot of hits and homers.

The good news for Porcello is that he is striking out a career-high 8.52 batters per nine innings while still walking less than two batters per nine innings, and while he won’t come anywhere close to last season’s 22 wins, he should have considerably more than three by now considering the potent Boston offense supporting him. Still, Porcello is not a great bet to produce an ERA under 4.00 from here on out, so he’ll need to strike out lots of batters and rack up lots of wins to have any value in 12-team mixed leagues. It’s not outrageous to drop him in leagues of that size, despite the Cy Young award just a year ago.  

Which Angel bats should be owned?
With Mike Trout on the DL and Albert Pujols a shell of his former self, it’s fair to ask whether any Angels hitters are worth using in standard mixed leagues. But a few Halos are doing enough to warrant some attention.

The best bet to have season-long value is Andrelton Simmons, who is the eighth-most valuable shortstop so far this season and second-most valuable shortstop in the last month, according to Baseball Monster. Simmons is hitting for much more power than he has since he hit 17 HRs in 2013, which may not be completely sustainable given his low fly ball rate. But the biggest key to his fantasy value is that he’s already stolen 10 bases, and he’ll be worth owning in most leagues as long as he continues to run.

Steals are also the main reason to own Cameron Maybin and Eric Young Jr., who are both worthy of consideration as stopgaps in 12-team roto leagues as long as they are playing and running consistently. Finally, Kole Calhoun already has five home runs in June to go with a .381 average this month, and while he’s generally an overrated fantasy asset, it wouldn’t hurt to get his bat in your lineup while he’s hot.


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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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