In case you missed it, Aaron Judge hit a ball 121 mph this weekend. Then, just in case that wasn’t impressive enough, he hit another one 495 feet.
He is a freak of nature. He is probably the frontrunner for AL MVP. He is, unfortunately, probably unattainable in trades. However, the guys I listed below likely are available, and trading for them or trading them away can help your team down the stretch.
*Note: All StatCast metrics are through the games of June 11 and all other metrics account for games up through June 12
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Buy Lows
Jose Abreu (1B – CWS)
Abreu has hit safely in seven of 13 games since May 29, good for just a .200 average. Fortunately for him and his owners, the slump is entirely explainable.
The biggest contributor is a .233 BABIP over that stretch, more than 100 points below his career average. His expected batting average according to StatCast has gone up since May 29, from .292 to .316.
While we’re on the subject of StatCast (segueing like a pro), his xwOBA is only 20 points lower than it was before May 29, despite the 150 point drop in actual wOBA. His exit velocity hasn’t budged, and while his launch angle is a little worrisome—11.2 degrees before, 5.1 degrees since—he’s hitting line drives than he was before, at the expense of fly balls.
The other encouraging note is that Abreu has improved both his strikeout and walk rates since that point. There’s nothing to indicate that Abreu lost any skill, so he should be back at his normal level in no time.
Brett Gardner (OF – NYY)
Along with the rest of the Yankees, Gardner has played well this season. His wRC+ of 126 on the season ranks ninth among AL outfielders (despite ranking third on his team).
As of late, though, he’s been ever-so-slightly worse, as his wRC+ of 115 since May 29 falls just short of his 130 mark beforehand. His wOBA is slightly down as well from .366 to .344.
Obviously, Gardner’s still playing well, but StatCast says he’s played better over these past two weeks, not worse. His xwOBA is up 62 points, and his expected batting average is up 79 points.
What’s most impressive, though, is his increase in exit velocity, as the 7.8 mph difference is the largest among all players to have seen at least 100 pitches before and since May 29. Prior to that date, his average exit velocity of 84.1 mph ranked 172nd of 194 players with at least 100 balls in play.
Since then, it ranks 26th of 208 players with at least 25 balls in play. If he can keep that up, especially with the short porch in Yankee Stadium, Gardner could prove to be a serious power threat.
Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
I’m not saying Sale is struggling right now, but four of his five single-digit strikeout games have come in his past four starts. He’s also allowed at least three runs in all of those and made it seven innings just twice, after doing so in eight of his first nine starts. OK, so maybe he is struggling, but Chris Sale’s struggles are what Jered Weaver dreams about.
The good news is that the underlying skills are still there. His wOBA is up from .215 to .328 according to StatCast, but his xwOBA has seen a much less drastic change from .242 to .278, indicating he hasn’t lost much if anything.
His strikeout percentage is down—it was never going to stay at 38.6 percent—but so is his walk rate. In fact, his K/BB is 7.8 during those four starts, as opposed to 7.3 beforehand. Sale is still elite, and even though he’ll cost a king’s ransom to get, now is the time if there ever was one.
Sell Highs
Todd Frazier (1B/3B – CWS)
Frazier hasn’t gotten worse recently; it’s just that he hasn’t made the improvement he’s shown. His xwOBA is up just seven points (from .363 to .370) since May 29 as compared to beforehand, despite his actual wOBA seeing a difference of 150 points (.297 to .444) before and after that date.
His BABIP has changed quite drastically as well, as it’s gone from .190 before May 29 to .355 over the past two weeks, accounting for much of his increase in production. That’s not the only warning sign for Frazier, who has also seen an increase in his strikeout rate and a decrease in his walk rate.
Perhaps the biggest flag though is his launch angle, which has averaged just 10.9 degrees over the past two weeks, down from 19.1 degrees before. For a player who’s built much of his reputation around power, it’ll be problematic if he can’t lift the ball with consistency.
Didi Gregorius (SS – NYY)
Unlike Frazier, Gregorius has gotten worse recently, at least according to StatCast. After starting off the first month of his season with a .296 xwOBA—which isn’t something to write home about in the first place—the past two weeks have seen him post just a .243 mark. Over that same time, his actual wOBA is .451, one of the largest differences in baseball.
As you could probably guess, his .442 BABIP has a little something to do with his recent run of success—his expected batting average of .220 over the last two weeks is barely half of his actual .407 average. That luck has afforded him a 14-game hit streak and multi-hit performances in six of his past seven games, presenting the ultimate sell-high opportunity.
Ariel Miranda (SP – SEA)
I know Miranda upsets the symmetry of this piece, but I didn’t even realize I was close to having the same three teams as buy lows and sell highs until I started writing about Gregorius. Regardless, Miranda deserves is place on this list, as his ERA-FIP is the fifth-lowest among qualified starters over the last 30 days.
Miranda carried a 5.20 ERA through his first seven starts of the season, backed by a 5.30 FIP and 4.75 xFIP. In his six starts since May 14, he managed a 2.17 ERA, a vast improvement but ultimately a deception—his 3.82 FIP and 5.17 xFIP over that same time attest to that.
One of the biggest culprits is his walk rate, which was nearly double over the past six starts as it was over his first seven. A .174 BABIP has helped conceal his blemishes, as has an 85.4 percent strand rate and 5.9 HR/FB rate. He hasn’t let up more than two runs in any of those six most recent starts but expect that to change as soon as Thursday.
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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
