Throughout the season, players are inevitably going to go on hot and cold streaks. Besides being frustrating to predict, these streaks present an opportunity to trade away or trade for a player while his market value differs from his actual talent level.

It’s up to fantasy owners to determine which of the streaks represent real changes, and which of them are just streaks that will come to an end shortly. This is done by looking at the numbers deeper than those presented in the box score, and while impossible to do correctly all the time, this approach can more often than not lead you toward a more accurate evaluation of a player.

Import your team to My Playbook for custom advice all season

Buy Lows

Howie Kendrick (1B/2B/3B/OF – PHI)
In addition to having more eligible positions than a Las Vegas escort, Kendrick has provided some sneaky value to fantasy owners this year. He’s played in just 28 games, so his numbers may not look all that special, but prorated to 162 games, he’s on pace for 69 runs and RBIs, 12 HR, and 41 steals. With all that going along with his current .324/.380/.459 slash line, then that’s pretty good for a guy who went undrafted in a lot of leagues.

Naysayers will point out his .410 BABIP, which, admittedly, is unsustainable. But his career BABIP is .339, and he’s hitting line drives at the second-highest rate of his career, so for him to keep it above .340 the rest of the way isn’t out of the question.

Since his return from injury on May 29, his actual batting average is extremely close to his Statcast-expected one, despite the high BABIP. He has a .319 average in 78 plate appearances since returning, and a .396 BABIP, but his expected batting average is .307.

What’s more, in every game he’s played this season, he’s batted second, third, or fourth. While no one would mistake the Phillies for an offensive juggernaut, batting early in the lineup will give him a chance to get on base more often and pad his counting stats. In shallow leagues, he may be available to pick up, but in deeper leagues, take the advantage to buy low on a versatile player who can play many roles for you down the stretch.

Kevin Pillar (OF – TOR)
Time for a little bragging. Pillar was on this list two weeks ago. In that piece, I advocated for him to turn things around after a rough stretch, pointing toward his increased rate of line drives and unlucky BABIP.

I had mentioned that between May 25 and June 5, he had just an 8 wRC+. Since then, he’s picked up his game dramatically—his wRC+ since June 6 is…20.

Obviously, that’s still not what you want from a player like Pillar. Fortunately for Pillar and fantasy owners alike, much of the slump can be explained. He has just a .206 BABIP since that time, despite hitting line drives on 25.7 percent of his batted balls — his expected batting average over that time according to Statcast is .240, compared to his actual .163 mark.

It seems like I may be going down with the ship by sticking with Pillar, but I still believe in his talent. Despite his woes this season, he’s was still just one of 15 players heading into yesterday with at least 50 games played to be on pace for a 20/20 season.

Corey Kluber (SP – CLE)
Of course, he goes and throws a three-hitter the night I’m advocating to buy low on him. Of course. Well, enjoy the charts anyway.

You probably won’t be able to get him anymore, but I think those three charts are a pretty good indication as to why you should try.

Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
Odor’s been frustrating for me to own all season, so it feels good to be able to put him on this list. He’s had a power uptick recently, hitting five home runs in the past 13 games after hitting just one in the previous 26.

During those 26 games, Odor struggled — his average exit velocity was just 85.2 mph, while his average fly ball distance was 329 feet. Since June 4 though, Odor’s picked his game up.

His exit velocity is 89.9 mph during this stretch, and his average fly ball distance is 349 feet. In fact, for the year, his average fly ball distance of 336 feet is 14 feet more than it was last year and 24 feet more than it was in 2015.

With the recent stretch of home runs, he’s back on pace for 28 home runs, which is about what could’ve been expected when the year started (Steamer and ZiPS projected him for 26 and 29, respectively). He won’t win a batting title anytime soon, but the power seems to be back. If you can find an owner like me who was ready to give up on him, you might be able to get a sweet deal for him.

Sell Highs

Mallex Smith (OF – TB)
The young speedster has been tearing up since his most recent recall, recording a hit in all 11 of the Rays’ games since June 9. He’s recorded multiple hits in five of those, good for an average of .395, and is tied for third in steals with five in that time. However, as is the case with young players who seem too good to be true, his play right now is too good to be true.

His expected batting average since June 9 is just .194, over 200 points lower than his actual average. Much of that can be explained by a .533 BABIP, which, even for someone with his speed, is unsustainable. With him also striking out in over a quarter of his plate appearances, there’s virtually no chance of him maintaining his .411 OBP.

Unfortunately, if you don’t get on base, it’s a lot harder to get steals. He’ll still provide some, but there are other options just like him on the waiver wire.

Jake Arrieta (SP – CHC)
Jake Arrieta has not been good. It’s both a fact and the title of an article on FanGraphs by Jeff Sullivan.

The owner of a 4.64 ERA, Arrieta certainly hasn’t pleased his owners this season, but his 3.75 xFIP indicates he hasn’t been downright awful. He’s been moderately successful since May 31, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his four starts.

However, that’s where the positives end. Even in those four starts, he walked 10 batters (admittedly while striking out 22) in 21 innings, which is not what you’re looking for out of your ace. His ground ball rate is down as well to a four-year low.

His xFIP is probably closer to his true talent level, but coming into the season, you were expecting closer to a three ERA or even below that. If someone believes that he’s back to his old levels after his recent stretch of games, by all means, sell. That being said, his ERA should be around four the rest of the way, which is still better than he’s been.

Ivan Nova (SP – PIT)
Nova is another guy I’ve written about before, but he bears repeating. His ERA sits at 2.91, while his xFIP is more than 100 points higher at 3.97. There’s even more of a discrepancy recently, as in his past four starts, he has a 3.12 ERA but a 4.78 FIP and 4.21 xFIP.

The culprits for Nova are the usual suspects. A .181 BABIP during those starts (all quality starts) is not sustainable—nor is his 86.7 percent strand rate, especially with his inability to miss bats. He’s still striking out just 14.3 percent of batters this season and allowing contact on 85.4 percent of swings, one of the highest marks in the league.

All of the metrics point toward Nova regressing at some point. Despite the recent quality starts, he’s still giving up runs. Eventually, the quality starts will go away, but the runs won’t.

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.