If you look at the top of the OPS leaderboard, you’ll see some familiar names that you would expect in 2017. Mike Trout, Ryan Zimmerman, Aaron Judge, Zack Cozart, Bryce Harper…wait, Zack Cozart?
That’s right, Cozart has a higher OPS (1.059) than Harper (1.052), which seems like sheer madness, but in a season when Scooter Gennett can throw down four home runs in one game, why not? Cozart’s OPS is the result of a strong .351/.436/.623 line, and has resulted in 36 runs, nine homers, and 33 RBIs. Those are some solid fantasy contributions, but can we expect them to continue?
The first and most obvious red flag is a .400 BABIP. That’s an unsustainable figure for any player, to begin with, but in Cozart’s case, it’s even more so due to his below average .283 career BABIP. That looks incredibly fortuitous and explains a batting average significantly higher than his career number (.254).
But what about the power? He has a .272 ISO, which is coincidentally exactly .100 higher than last year. Cozart slugged a career-high 16 dingers last year, so he’s on pace to surpass that.
The good news is he’s no stranger to hitting fly balls, with a ground-ball rate blow 40% since 2015. Still, his HR/FB rate is a tick higher than the past couple seasons (14.8%), and there isn’t anything terribly impressive about his 84.8 mph average exit velocity or 31.8% hard-hit rate.
In all, it looks like some regression is in order, but it’s not all glass half-empty. Cozart’s 13.8% walk rate is excellent, likely due to a career-low swing rate (40.5%), and we’re at the point in the season where we can start believing in it.
He also has a cushy lineup spot hitting second in the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup, so he can still rack up the counting stats. That being said, it doesn’t appear the Bryce Harper’s OPS is here to stay. Who else catches the eye in our weekly romp By The Numbers?
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Giancarlo Stanton has lowered his strikeout rate to 23.7%
Lost in all the Aaron Judge talk this year is that the original Statcast maestro is staying healthy and quietly having an excellent season, albeit in a slightly different way than usual. His strikeout rate sits at a career-low, and his contact rate is highest he’s ever had (73.1%). But with those improvements, he’s seen a drop in hard-hit rate (36.6%), and he’s hitting grounders at a higher rate (45.3%).
In fact, he’s seceded that Statcast throne to the likes of Judge and Miguel Sano with “just” a 91.1 average exit velocity. Dare we say that Stanton isn’t trying to hit the seams off every ball anymore in exchange for more contact?
It’s difficult to argue with the results. His .284 average is his best since 2014, and he’s still smacked 15 home runs and has a .271 ISO. Despite the changes, he has the second highest max exit velocity on the season (118.7 mph), so it’s not like he isn’t dialing up the monster swings on occasion.
In totality, one has to like the prospects of this Stanton 2.0. Maybe he won’t have the monster power potential of years’ past, but we’ll gladly take homers in the mid-30s with a higher average. Let’s just hope he can stay healthy.
Should you believe Jacob deGrom’s 4.75 ERA or 3.48 SIERA
Is it time to be worried about deGrom? In his last two games, he’s been rocked for a combined 15 runs in just eight innings, including four bombs. Yikes. It’s raised his ERA to previously unforeseen heights, but it doesn’t look like we should panic just yet.
He didn’t show any noticeable changes in velocity over those past two starts, so it doesn’t look like we need to be worried about an injury. In fact, a lot of his issues seems to stem from plain old bad luck, with an elevated BABIP (.350) and HR/FB rate (20%) factoring into his woes. Of course, some of these issues are by his hand, as a 9.6% walk rate is far higher than what we’re used to seeing, and he’s giving up an uncharacteristic amount of hard contact (37.6%).
Still, he’s striking guys out at an impressive 29.9% rate, sixth among qualified starters, and supported by a 14.7% swinging-strike rate. With that kind of whiff power, it’s tough to be too concerned, and given his previously stellar walk rate, we should give him the benefit of the doubt that he can regain better command of his pitches moving forward.
Scott Schebler’s 17 home runs and his new 42.2% fly-ball rate
People are starting to take notice of Schebler, a surprise contender in the home run race, just one behind Judge. Although he showed plenty of power in the minors, it hadn’t translated to the majors until this season. Much of that success has come from a significant drop in ground-ball rate (42.9%, down from 52.6%), resulting in more fly balls and a .311 ISO, good for eighth in the league.
Despite a high 27.4% HR/FB rate, the homers don’t look like a fluke either, with a 97.7 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, along with 21 barrels. It’s worth noting that seven of his dingers just made it over the fence, so perhaps he’s been a tad lucky, but with those Statcast numbers, the results speak for themselves.
Overall, we have to like Schebler’s prospects for the rest of the season. He’s making regular hard contact (42.3%), and it’s not at the expense of a crippling strikeout rate (19.8%). It’s only been a couple of months, but even with some regression, there’s a lot to like here.
If you drafted or picked up Schebler, give yourself a pat on the back. This is one breakout many didn’t see coming.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
